Risk-Informed design process of the IRIS reactor

Westinghouse is currently conducting the pre-application licensing of the International Reactor Innovative and Secure (IRIS). The design philosophy of the IRIS has been based on the concept of Safety-by-DesignTM and within this framework the PSA is being used as an integral part of the design process. The basis for the PSA contribution to the design phase of the reactor is the close iteration between the PSA team and the design and safety analysis team. In this process the design team is not only involved in the initial phase of providing system information to the PSA team, allowing in this way the identification of the high risk scenarios, but it is also receiving feedback from the PSA team that suggests design modification aimed at reaching risk-related goals. During the first iteration of this process, the design modifications proposed by the PSA team allowed reducing the initial estimate of Core Damage Frequency (CDF) due to internal events from 2E-6/ry to 2E-8/ry. Since the IRIS design is still in a development phase, a number of assumptions have to be confirmed when the design is finalized. Among key assumptions are the success criteria for both the accident sequences analyzed and the systems involved in the mitigation strategies. The PSA team developed the initial accident sequence event trees according to the information from the preliminary analysis and feasibility studies. A recent coupling between the RELAP and GOTHIC codes made possible the actual simulation of all LOCA sequences identified in the first draft of the Event Trees. Working in close coordination, the PSA and the safety analysis teams developed a matrix case of sequences not only with the purpose of testing the assumed success criteria, but also with the perspective of identifying alternative sequences developed mainly by relaxing the extremely conservative assumptions previously made. The results of these simulations, bounded themselves with conservative assumptions on the Core Damage definition, suggested two new versions of the LOCA Event Tree with two possible configurations of the Automatic Depressurization System. The new CDF has been evaluated for both configurations and the design team has been provided with an additional and risk-related perspective that will help choosing the design alternative to be implemented

Surrogate based Global Sensitivity Analysis of ADM1-based Anaerobic Digestion Model

In order to calibrate the model parameters, Sensitivity Analysis routines are mandatory to rank the parameters by their relevance and fix to nominal values the least influential factors. Despite the high number of works based on ADM1, very few are related to sensitivity analysis. In this study Global Sensitivity Analysis (GSA) and Uncertainty Quantification (UQ) for an ADM1-based Anaerobic Digestion Model have been performed. The modified version of ADM-based model selected in this study was presented by Esposito and co-authors in 2013. Unlike the first version of ADM1, focused on sewage sludge degradation, the model of Esposito is focused on organic fraction of municipal solid waste digestion. It his recalled that in many applications the hydrolysis is considered the bottleneck of the overall anaerobic digestion process when the input substrate is constituted of complex organic matter. In Esposito's model a surfaced based kinetic approach for the disintegration of complex organic matter is introduced. This approach allows to better model the disintegration step taking into account the effect of particle size distribution on the digestion process. This model needs thus GSA and UQ to pave the way for further improvements and reach a deep understanding of the main processes and leading input factors. Due to the large number of parameters to be analyzed a first preliminary screening analysis, with the Morris' Method, has been conducted. Since two quantities of interest (QoI) have been considered, the initial screening has been performed twice, obtaining two set of parameters containing the most influential factors in determining the value of each QoI. A surrogate of ADM1 model has been defined making use of the two defined quantities of interest. The output results from the surrogate model have been analyzed with Sobol’ indices for the quantitative GSA. Finally, uncertainty quantification has been performed. By adopting kernel smoothing techniques, the Probability Density Functions of each quantity of interest have been defined

DESIGN OF OPTIMAL PROCEDURAL CONTROLLERS FOR CHEMICAL PROCESSES MODELLED AS STOCHASTIC DISCRETE EVENT SYSTEMS

This thesis presents a formal method for the the design of optimal and provably correct procedural controllers for chemical processes modelled as Stochastic Discrete Event Systems (SDESs). The thesis extends previous work on Procedural Control Theory (PCT) [1], which used formal techniques for the design of automation Discrete Event Systems (DESs). Many dynamic processes for example, batch operations and the start-up and shut down of continuous plants, can be modelled as DESs. Controllers for these systems are typically of the sequential type. Most prior work on characterizing the behaviour of DESs has been restricted to deterministic systems. However, DESs consisting of concurrent interacting processes present a broad spectrum of uncertainty such as uncertainty in the occurrence of events. The formalism of weighted probabilistic Finite State Machine (wp-FSM) is introduced for modelling SDESs and pre-de ned failure models are embedded in wp-FSM to describe and control the abnormal behaviour of systems. The thesis presents e cient algorithms and procedures for synthesising optimal procedural controllers for such SDESs. The synthesised optimal controllers for such stochastic systems will take into consideration probabilities of events occurrence, operation costs and failure costs of events in making optimal choices in the design of control sequences. The controllers will force the system from an initial state to one or more goal states with an optimal expected cost and when feasible drive the system from any state reached after a failure to goal states. On the practical side, recognising the importance of the needs of the target end user, the design of a suitable software implementation is completed. The potential of both the approach and the supporting software are demonstrated by two industry case studies. Furthermore, the simulation environment gPROMS was used to test whether the operating speci cations thus designed were met in a combined discrete/continuous environment

Civil Liability, Safety and Nuclear Parks: Is Concentrated Management Better?

Ultra-hazardous risky activities as nuclear industry cannot be considered as “normal industries” i.e. industries without abnormal environmental and health risks. Consequently, the industrial organization of these specific sectors is of the utmost importance. This paper aims at studying this question. We focus on the associated costs of prevention and civil liability. We analyze how civil liability rules may contribute to extend or to discourage the expansion of nuclear parks to new operators. The paper compares the consequences of extending the management of nuclear stations to several independent operators. This question can apply to the unification process of the European electricity market in which several public and private nuclear power operators are running. The paper shows that the choice between either a monopolistic scheme (one operator managing several plants) or a decentralized one (one operator by station) depends on the condition of application of the legal civil liability regime and on the strength of the safety control exerted by the Nuclear Regulatory Authorities. It is shown that when the control is high, then the safety costs generated by the monopolistic organization are less than the same costs of a decentralized one. However, conditions on the insurance policy can mitigate this result.Strict Liability, Electric Energy, Nuclear Plants

Formal Expert Judgement - An Overview

The scope of the document is to provide an overview on the formal process of expert judgement and it is targeted to readers that are not very familiar with the issue, but are interested to hvae a condensed summary on the topic. An emphasis is put on the use of formal expert judgement in the field of structural integrity, this being an area of interest in plant life management of ageing nuclear power installations. Moreover, the document can also be seen as a basis for developing an approach for formal expert judgement in other plant life management areas such as, for example, maintenance and in-service inspectionJRC.F.4-Nuclear design safet