Comparing Thirty30 Tennis with Traditional Tennis

Thirty30 is a shorter format of tennis where games start at 30-30. This means that a greater proportion of points are game points or break points than would be the case in traditional tennis. The purpose of the current paper is to compare the probability of players of different abilities winning games, sets and matches between Thirty30 tennis and traditional tennis. This is done using probabilistic models of each format of tennis. The results show that there is reduced dominance of the serve and a greater probability of upsets in Thirty30 tennis than in traditional tennis. The models are also experimented with, adjusting the probability of winning points where the point is a game point or a break point. The paper shows that such scoreline effects have a greater impact in Thirty30 tennis than they do in traditional tennis. This has implications for player preparation for Thirty30 tennis

Probability of winning and match length in Tiebreak Ten tennis

New formats of tennis have been developed to make matches more exciting and unpredictable than the traditional format of the game. The purpose of the current investigation was to compare and the probability of winning between Tiebreak Ten matches and two other formats of the game; Fast4 tennis and traditional tennis. A probabilistic model of winning Tiebreak Ten tennis matches was created and compared with existing models of Fast4 and traditional tennis matches. This analysis was done for a full range of probabilities of players winning points when they are serving. This involved 1000 simulations for each pair of probabilities for two players serving for multiple set matches in Fast4 tennis and traditional tennis. The probability of players beating higher ranked opponents was found to be higher in Tiebreak Ten matches than in Fast4 and traditional tennis matches. This confirms the claim that Tiebreak Ten matches are less predictable and hence more exciting than Fast4 and traditional tennis matches

The serve clock reduced rule violations, but did not speed up the game: A closer look at the inter-point time at the 2018 US Open

After treating time rule violations as a trivial offense over the past, tennis associations in 2018 permanently introduced an on-court serve clock to make sure that players do not exceed the time limit between points. In this study, we investigated the influence of this technological officiating aid at its first use in Grand Slam tennis at the 2018 US Open. By investigating time intervals between 2135 points at the Men’s single tournament we found that the share of rule violations decreased (26.3%), but the average time did not (21.6 s) compared to previous studies. We could further confirm that the players still use this time interval for tactical reasons and to recover after longer rallies. In addition, the umpires, which do not show any reputation bias, have a significant influence on the inter-point time as well. Based on these findings we suggest introducing a serve clock that is started automatically. Further, we argue that a dynamic time limit, which takes the intensity of the previous rally into account, would be more appropriate. Players could be granted more time for recovery after longer rallies, but less time after shorter ones in order to reach the intended goals regarding pace of play

Proceedings of Mathsport international 2017 conference

Proceedings of MathSport International 2017 Conference, held in the Botanical Garden of the University of Padua, June 26-28, 2017. MathSport International organizes biennial conferences dedicated to all topics where mathematics and sport meet. Topics include: performance measures, optimization of sports performance, statistics and probability models, mathematical and physical models in sports, competitive strategies, statistics and probability match outcome models, optimal tournament design and scheduling, decision support systems, analysis of rules and adjudication, econometrics in sport, analysis of sporting technologies, financial valuation in sport, e-sports (gaming), betting and sports

A Statistical Investigation into Factors Affecting Results of One Day International Cricket Matches

The effect of playing “home” or “away” and many other factors, such as batting first or second, winning or losing the toss, have been hypothesised as influencing the outcome of major cricket matches. Anecdotally, it has often been noted that Subcontinental sides (India, Pakistan, Sri Lanka and Bangladesh) tend to perform much better on the Subcontinent than away from it, whilst England do better in Australia during cooler, damper Australian Summers than during hotter, drier ones. In this paper, focusing on results of men’s One Day International (ODI) matches involving England, we investigate the extent to which a number of factors – including playing home or away (or the continent of the venue), batting or fielding first, winning or losing the toss, the weather conditions during the game, the condition of the pitch, and the strength of each team’s top batting and bowling resources – influence the outcome of matches. By employing a variety of Statistical techniques, we find that the continent of the venue does appear to be a major factor affecting the result, but winning the toss does not. We then use the factors identified as significant in an attempt to build a Binary Logistic Regression Model that will estimate the probability of England winning at various stages of a game. Finally, we use this model to predict the results of some England ODI games not used in training the model

Central Adaptation after Peripheral Vestibular Injury

This thesis examines how the human brain adapts after peripheral vestibular injury. Vestibular perceptual function is used as a probe of cortical vestibular function. A paradigm determining vestibular perceptual thresholds to yaw axis rotation by a method of limits is described. Asymmetry in the thresholds is induced in normal subjects with galvanic vestibular stimulation. In patients with acute vestibular neuritis, perceptual thresholds were bilaterally elevated, with less asymmetry when compared to the brainstem reflexive function. Thresholds were measured in a prospective longitudinal study in vestibular neuritis patients, assessed acutely and at follow-­‐up (n=16). Assessments comprised vestibular caloric testing, visual dependency measures, questionnaire measures of symptom load, anxiety, depression and fear of body sensations. Clinical recruitment found a low rate of correct diagnoses by referring clinicians. Symptomatic outcome at follow-up was associated with increased visual dependence, asymmetric caloric function, increased anxiety and depression. It was also associated with increased fear and anxiety of body sensations present acutely, suggesting this may be predisposing. The anatomical substrate of central compensation was investigated in patients with bilateral vestibular failure (n=12) and normal controls (n=15) using functional MRI. A novel air turbine-powered vibrating device was developed to provide high and low levels of proprioceptive stimulus to neck rotator muscles. This was combined with a horizontal visual motion paradigm in a factorial design. A lateralised interaction was found in the lateral occipital visual processing areas in the avestibular patients. In addition to the known visual-vestibular interaction, this demonstrates a visuo-proprioceptive interaction, which may reflect compensation after vestibular injury. Conclusions: Vestibular perceptual function can be measured in disease, and is elevated in patients with acute peripheral vestibulopathy. Specific psychological and physiological factors associated with clinical recovery after vestibular neuritis are proposed. Functional MRI shows that proprioceptive signals interact with visual motion signals in patients with vestibular failure

Probabilistic models comparing Fast4 and traditional tennis

Tennis matches are hierarchies made up of sets containing games which, in turn, contain points. Traditional tennis games and tiebreakers could theoretically be infinite in length because a player needs to be at least 2 points ahead of the opponent to win. Fast4 tennis is a newer format of tennis that has been used at a number of levels of the sport including professional tennis where it has been used in Next Generation Finals events since 2017. The purpose of the current investigation is to compare the traditional tennis format to Fast4 tennis in terms of the probability of different players winning matches and the duration of matches. Probabilistic models of Fast4 tennis games and tiebreakers were developed. These models allowed the probability of winning games and tiebreakers to be compared between the two formats of tennis for a range of probabilities of players winning points. The models were then used within a series of simulations to determine the probability of winning sets and matches as well as the durations of games, tiebreakers, sets and matches in the two formats. Each component of the two formats of tennis was simulated 100,000 times revealing a reduced impact of serve, greater chance of upsets and shorter matches in Fast 4 tennis than in traditional tennis. The probability of players of differing abilities winning matches as well as the duration of tennis matches should be considered by those making decisions on the format of matches to be applied in tennis tournaments as well as by those preparing to compete in such tournaments

Effects of Temporal Expectation on Complex Decision Making

Many complex decisions require integrating and assessing multiple streams of dynamic information whilst determining how to act. This dynamic information often contains rhythmic structures which our sensory systems can adapt to and use to anticipate future events. Despite the close relationship between rhythmic temporal expectations and complex decision making being self evident, no experiments explicitly attempt to understand this interdependence. If the theories that have emerged from both domains are to generalise to complex interactive behaviour, the effects of dynamic context on complex decisions must be considered. I argue that timing research must move beyond simple decisions and develop a new experimental framework for addressing the problem. This includes increasing the complexity of experimental tasks, testing the effects of timing on perceptual averaging and subjective value decisions, incorporating timing as an inherent dimension of targets, testing degrees of aperiodicity and exploring the effects that prior knowledge about the temporal structure of a stimulus has on choice. Seven behavioural experiments are reported that implement the new experimental framework. Five use a complex auditory-spatial averaging task to examine effects of periodicity, expectation, prior knowledge and related parameters such as IOI variance. One tests the effects of rhythmic variability and stimulus duration on auditory detection to determine specificity to complex decision making, and one investigates the effects of timing on audio-visual subjective value decisions. The results show that existing theories of temporal expectation do not necessarily generalise to complex decision making. Periodicity reduces the amount of information that is needed to form complex decisions. However, the effects of periodicity (or degree of aperiodicity) on choice are dependent on a number of factors associated with prior knowledge, stimulus rate, variance, decision type and task complexity. Using these findings I develop an explanatory framework called "dynamic inhibition and boosting" that better accounts for behavioural data in the literature compared with existing theories. This explanation is supported by the novel proposal that temporal expectations influence confidence and perceived risk.This thesis was fully funded via an AHRC scholarship