Probabilistic Controllled Airpsace Infringement Tool

A current ground based safety net called Controlled Airspace infringement Tool (CAIT) is used by Air Traffic Controllers (ATCs) in the UK. It warns them if any aircraft within uncontrolled airspace penetrates the Controlled airspace (CAS) without an advance clearance from the ATC. This penetration or ‘Infringement’ is considered as a major concern to ATCs where it may cause a possible conflict or mid-air collision. A conflict is an event which one aircraft loses its minimum separation to another. A current deficiency of CAIT is that it only warns ATCs if the aircraft has already infringed CAS, this gives the ATC minimum time to react and avoid any conflict. In this research, we investigate a model which warns ATCs of possible future infringements accurately. We implement two Kalman filters (KF) as our tracking tool, one for each flight mode: constant velocity and constant acceleration each of which has its state error covariance. Where the state error covariance measures the uncertainty in the aircraft’s estimated position, and is therefore important for accurately predicting the aircraft future position and since each aircraft has its own characteristic and journey type, a single parameterisation of the state covariance for all aircraft is unsuitable. Therefore, we learn these covariances in an online fashion at each time step to predict the future uncertainties more accurately. Given the two Kalman filters predictions and their error covariances, we use two methods to find the probability of infringement of CAS. The first method, proposed by Macdonald (2000), is called the shortest distance method. We extend this method to be able to find the probability of infringement when the prediction location is near a CAS corner by combining it with Monte Carlo sampling. A hybrid method is introduced to retain the efficiency of the shortest distance method with the accuracy of the Monte Carlo sampling. We also used the switching Kalman filter (SKF) method proposed by Murphy (1997) to choose between the most appropriate Kalman filter at each time step. On testing on real tracks, the SKF was found to give superior predictions of the aircraft location, permitting better estimates of the probability of CAS infringement to be made

A safety-centered approach to developing new air traffic management tools

Thesis (S.M.)--Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Dept. of Aeronautics and Astronautics, 2001.Includes bibliographical references (p. 217-219).by Maxime Galouzeau de Villepin.S.M

Work Practice Simulation of Complex Human-Automation Systems in Safety Critical Situations: The Brahms Generalized berlingen Model

The transition from the current air traffic system to the next generation air traffic system will require the introduction of new automated systems, including transferring some functions from air traffic controllers to on-board automation. This report describes a new design verification and validation (V&V) methodology for assessing aviation safety. The approach involves a detailed computer simulation of work practices that includes people interacting with flight-critical systems. The research is part of an effort to develop new modeling and verification methodologies that can assess the safety of flight-critical systems, system configurations, and operational concepts. The 2002 Ueberlingen mid-air collision was chosen for analysis and modeling because one of the main causes of the accident was one crew's response to a conflict between the instructions of the air traffic controller and the instructions of TCAS, an automated Traffic Alert and Collision Avoidance System on-board warning system. It thus furnishes an example of the problem of authority versus autonomy. It provides a starting point for exploring authority/autonomy conflict in the larger system of organization, tools, and practices in which the participants' moment-by-moment actions take place. We have developed a general air traffic system model (not a specific simulation of berlingen events), called the Brahms Generalized Ueberlingen Model (Brahms-GUeM). Brahms is a multi-agent simulation system that models people, tools, facilities/vehicles, and geography to simulate the current air transportation system as a collection of distributed, interactive subsystems (e.g., airports, air-traffic control towers and personnel, aircraft, automated flight systems and air-traffic tools, instruments, crew). Brahms-GUeM can be configured in different ways, called scenarios, such that anomalous events that contributed to the berlingen accident can be modeled as functioning according to requirements or in an anomalous condition, as occurred during the accident. Brahms-GUeM thus implicitly defines a class of scenarios, which include as an instance what occurred at berlingen. Brahms-GUeM is a modeling framework enabling "what if" analysis of alternative work system configurations and thus facilitating design of alternative operations concepts. It enables subsequent adaption (reusing simulation components) for modeling and simulating NextGen scenarios. This project demonstrates that BRAHMS provides the capacity to model the complexity of air transportation systems, going beyond idealized and simple flights to include for example the interaction of pilots and ATCOs. The research shows clearly that verification and validation must include the entire work system, on the one hand to check that mechanisms exist to handle failures of communication and alerting subsystems and/or failures of people to notice, comprehend, or communicate problematic (unsafe) situations; but also to understand how people must use their own judgment in relating fallible systems like TCAS to other sources of information and thus to evaluate how the unreliability of automation affects system safety. The simulation shows in particular that distributed agents (people and automated systems) acting without knowledge of each others' actions can create a complex, dynamic system whose interactive behavior is unexpected and is changing too quickly to comprehend and control

High Density en Route airspace safety level and colllision risk estimation based on stored aircraft tracks

The major constraint in developing appropriate monitoring methodologies and tools to assess the level of safety in en-route airspaces where controllers monitor air traffic by means of radar surveillance and provide aircraft with tactical instructions lies in the estimation of the operational risk. The operational risk estimate normally relies on incident reports provided by the air navigation service providers (ANSPs). The provision of incident reports is highly dependent on the safety management practices of each ANSP and requires the complete cooperation of both controllers (in identifying and reporting altitude deviations) and incident investigators (in providing operational reports to the RMA in good time). The EUROCONTROL 2009 SRC Annual Safety Report concludes that whilst "there has been an improvement in reporting of safety occurrences, overall progress towards full reporting by states is too slow." This paper presents a new and innovative approach to assessing aircraft safety level within En-route Airspaces based upon the process and analysis of radar tracks. The proposed methodology has been designed to complement the information collected in the accident and incident databases, thereby providing the following information inferred from the in depth assessment of proximate event

Engage D3.10 Research and innovation insights

Engage is the SESAR 2020 Knowledge Transfer Network (KTN). It is managed by a consortium of academia and industry, with the support of the SESAR Joint Undertaking. This report highlights future research opportunities for ATM. The basic framework is structured around three research pillars. Each research pillar has a dedicated section in this report. SESAR’s Strategic Research and Innovation Agenda, Digital European Sky is a focal point of comparison. Much of the work is underpinned by the building and successful launch of the Engage wiki, which comprises an interactive research map, an ATM concepts roadmap and a research repository. Extensive lessons learned are presented. Detailed proposals for future research, plus research enablers and platforms are suggested for SESAR 3

Current Safety Nets Within the U.S. National Airspace System

There are over 70,000 flights managed per day in the National Airspace System, with approximately 7,000 aircraft in the air over the United States at any given time. Operators of each of these flights would prefer to fly a user-defined 4D trajectory (4DT), which includes arrival and departure times; preferred gates and runways at the airport; efficient, wind-optimal routes for departure, cruise and arrival phase of flight; and fuel efficient altitude profiles. To demonstrate the magnitude of this achievement a single flight from Los Angeles to Baltimore, accesses over 35 shared or constrained resources that are managed by roughly 30 air traffic controllers (at towers, approach control and en route sectors); along with traffic managers at 12 facilities, using over 22 different, independent automation system (including TBFM, ERAM, STARS, ASDE-X, FSM, TSD, GPWS, TCAS, etc.). In addition, dispatchers, ramp controllers and others utilize even more systems to manage each flights access to operator-managed resources. Flying an ideal 4DT requires successful coordination of all flight constraints among all flights, facilities, operators, pilots and controllers. Additionally, when conditions in the NAS change, the trajectories of one or more aircraft may need to be revised to avoid loss of flight efficiency, predictability, separation or system throughput. The Aviation Safety Network has released the 2016 airliner accident statistics showing a very low total of 19 fatal airliner accidents, resulting in 325 fatalities1. Despite several high profile accidents, the year 2016 turned out to be a very safe year for commercial aviation, Aviation Safety Network data show. Over the year 2016 the Aviation Safety Network recorded a total of 19 fatal airliner accidents [1], resulting in 325 fatalities. This makes 2016 the second safest year ever, both by number of fatal accidents as well as in terms of fatalities. In 2015 ASN recorded 16 accidents while in 2013 a total of 265 lives were lost. How can we keep it that way and not upset the apple cart by premature insertion of innovative technologies, functions, and procedures? In aviation, safety nets function as the last system defense against incidents and accidents. Current ground-based and airborne safety nets are well established and development to make them more efficient and reliable continues. Additionally, future air traffic control safety nets may emerge from new operational concepts

Engage D1.2 Final Project Results Report

This deliverable summarises the activities and results of Engage, the SESAR 2020 Knowledge Transfer Network (KTN). The KTN initiated and supported multiple activities for SESAR and the European air traffic management (ATM) community, including PhDs, focused catalyst fund projects, thematic workshops, summer schools and the launch of a wiki as the one-stop, go-to source for ATM research and knowledge in Europe. Key throughout was the integration of exploratory and industrial research, thus expediting the innovation pipeline and bringing researchers together. These activities laid valuable foundations for the SESAR Digital Academy

Risk Assessment in Air Traffic Management

One of the most complex challenges for the future of aviation is to ensure a safe integration of the expected air traffic demand. Air traffic is expected to almost double its current value in 20 years, which cannot be managed without the development and implementation of a safe air traffic management (ATM) system. In ATM, risk assessment is a crucial cornerstone to validate the operation of air traffic flows, airport processes, or navigation accuracy. This book tries to be a focal point and motivate further research by encompassing crosswise and widespread knowledge about this critical and exciting issue by bringing to light the different purposes and methods developed for risk assessment in ATM