Probabilistic ODE Solvers with Runge-Kutta Means

Runge-Kutta methods are the classic family of solvers for ordinary differential equations (ODEs), and the basis for the state of the art. Like most numerical methods, they return point estimates. We construct a family of probabilistic numerical methods that instead return a Gauss-Markov process defining a probability distribution over the ODE solution. In contrast to prior work, we construct this family such that posterior means match the outputs of the Runge-Kutta family exactly, thus inheriting their proven good properties. Remaining degrees of freedom not identified by the match to Runge-Kutta are chosen such that the posterior probability measure fits the observed structure of the ODE. Our results shed light on the structure of Runge-Kutta solvers from a new direction, provide a richer, probabilistic output, have low computational cost, and raise new research questions.Comment: 18 pages (9 page conference paper, plus supplements); appears in Advances in Neural Information Processing Systems (NIPS), 201

Probabilistic Solutions to Differential Equations and their Application to Riemannian Statistics

We study a probabilistic numerical method for the solution of both boundary and initial value problems that returns a joint Gaussian process posterior over the solution. Such methods have concrete value in the statistics on Riemannian manifolds, where non-analytic ordinary differential equations are involved in virtually all computations. The probabilistic formulation permits marginalising the uncertainty of the numerical solution such that statistics are less sensitive to inaccuracies. This leads to new Riemannian algorithms for mean value computations and principal geodesic analysis. Marginalisation also means results can be less precise than point estimates, enabling a noticeable speed-up over the state of the art. Our approach is an argument for a wider point that uncertainty caused by numerical calculations should be tracked throughout the pipeline of machine learning algorithms.Comment: 11 page (9 page conference paper, plus supplements

A quantitative probabilistic investigation into the accumulation of rounding errors in numerical ODE solution.

We examine numerical rounding errors of some deterministic solvers for systems of ordinary differential equations (ODEs) from a probabilistic viewpoint. We show that the accumulation of rounding errors results in a solution which is inherently random and we obtain the theoretical distribution of the trajectory as a function of time, the step size and the numerical precision of the computer. We consider, in particular, systems which amplify the effect of the rounding errors so that over long time periods the solutions exhibit divergent behaviour. By performing multiple repetitions with different values of the time step size, we observe numerically the random distributions predicted theoretically. We mainly focus on the explicit Euler and fourth order Runge–Kutta methods but also briefly consider more complex algorithms such as the implicit solvers VODE and RADAU5 in order to demonstrate that the observed effects are not specific to a particular method

Probabilistic Numerics and Uncertainty in Computations

We deliver a call to arms for probabilistic numerical methods: algorithms for numerical tasks, including linear algebra, integration, optimization and solving differential equations, that return uncertainties in their calculations. Such uncertainties, arising from the loss of precision induced by numerical calculation with limited time or hardware, are important for much contemporary science and industry. Within applications such as climate science and astrophysics, the need to make decisions on the basis of computations with large and complex data has led to a renewed focus on the management of numerical uncertainty. We describe how several seminal classic numerical methods can be interpreted naturally as probabilistic inference. We then show that the probabilistic view suggests new algorithms that can flexibly be adapted to suit application specifics, while delivering improved empirical performance. We provide concrete illustrations of the benefits of probabilistic numeric algorithms on real scientific problems from astrometry and astronomical imaging, while highlighting open problems with these new algorithms. Finally, we describe how probabilistic numerical methods provide a coherent framework for identifying the uncertainty in calculations performed with a combination of numerical algorithms (e.g. both numerical optimisers and differential equation solvers), potentially allowing the diagnosis (and control) of error sources in computations.Comment: Author Generated Postprint. 17 pages, 4 Figures, 1 Tabl

Stochastic rounding and reduced-precision fixed-point arithmetic for solving neural ordinary differential equations

Although double-precision floating-point arithmetic currently dominates high-performance computing, there is increasing interest in smaller and simpler arithmetic types. The main reasons are potential improvements in energy efficiency and memory footprint and bandwidth. However, simply switching to lower-precision types typically results in increased numerical errors. We investigate approaches to improving the accuracy of reduced-precision fixed-point arithmetic types, using examples in an important domain for numerical computation in neuroscience: the solution of Ordinary Differential Equations (ODEs). The Izhikevich neuron model is used to demonstrate that rounding has an important role in producing accurate spike timings from explicit ODE solution algorithms. In particular, fixed-point arithmetic with stochastic rounding consistently results in smaller errors compared to single precision floating-point and fixed-point arithmetic with round-to-nearest across a range of neuron behaviours and ODE solvers. A computationally much cheaper alternative is also investigated, inspired by the concept of dither that is a widely understood mechanism for providing resolution below the least significant bit (LSB) in digital signal processing. These results will have implications for the solution of ODEs in other subject areas, and should also be directly relevant to the huge range of practical problems that are represented by Partial Differential Equations (PDEs).Comment: Submitted to Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society

Convergence Rates of Gaussian ODE Filters

A recently-introduced class of probabilistic (uncertainty-aware) solvers for ordinary differential equations (ODEs) applies Gaussian (Kalman) filtering to initial value problems. These methods model the true solution $x$ and its first $q$ derivatives \emph{a priori} as a Gauss--Markov process $\boldsymbol{X}$, which is then iteratively conditioned on information about $\dot{x}$. This article establishes worst-case local convergence rates of order $q+1$ for a wide range of versions of this Gaussian ODE filter, as well as global convergence rates of order $q$ in the case of $q=1$ and an integrated Brownian motion prior, and analyses how inaccurate information on $\dot{x}$ coming from approximate evaluations of $f$ affects these rates. Moreover, we show that, in the globally convergent case, the posterior credible intervals are well calibrated in the sense that they globally contract at the same rate as the truncation error. We illustrate these theoretical results by numerical experiments which might indicate their generalizability to $q \in \{2,3,\dots\}$.Comment: 26 pages, 5 figure