Probabilistic error estimation for non-intrusive reduced models learned from data of systems governed by linear parabolic partial differential equations

This work derives a residual-based a posteriori error estimator for reduced models learned with non-intrusive model reduction from data of high-dimensional systems governed by linear parabolic partial differential equations with control inputs. It is shown that quantities that are necessary for the error estimator can be either obtained exactly as the solutions of least-squares problems in a non-intrusive way from data such as initial conditions, control inputs, and high-dimensional solution trajectories or bounded in a probabilistic sense. The computational procedure follows an offline/online decomposition. In the offline (training) phase, the high-dimensional system is judiciously solved in a black-box fashion to generate data and to set up the error estimator. In the online phase, the estimator is used to bound the error of the reduced-model predictions for new initial conditions and new control inputs without recourse to the high-dimensional system. Numerical results demonstrate the workflow of the proposed approach from data to reduced models to certified predictions

Causal Inference in Disease Spread across a Heterogeneous Social System

Diffusion processes are governed by external triggers and internal dynamics in complex systems. Timely and cost-effective control of infectious disease spread critically relies on uncovering the underlying diffusion mechanisms, which is challenging due to invisible causality between events and their time-evolving intensity. We infer causal relationships between infections and quantify the reflexivity of a meta-population, the level of feedback on event occurrences by its internal dynamics (likelihood of a regional outbreak triggered by previous cases). These are enabled by our new proposed model, the Latent Influence Point Process (LIPP) which models disease spread by incorporating macro-level internal dynamics of meta-populations based on human mobility. We analyse 15-year dengue cases in Queensland, Australia. From our causal inference, outbreaks are more likely driven by statewide global diffusion over time, leading to complex behavior of disease spread. In terms of reflexivity, precursory growth and symmetric decline in populous regions is attributed to slow but persistent feedback on preceding outbreaks via inter-group dynamics, while abrupt growth but sharp decline in peripheral areas is led by rapid but inconstant feedback via intra-group dynamics. Our proposed model reveals probabilistic causal relationships between discrete events based on intra- and inter-group dynamics and also covers direct and indirect diffusion processes (contact-based and vector-borne disease transmissions).Comment: arXiv admin note: substantial text overlap with arXiv:1711.0635

Bounds for self-stabilization in unidirectional networks

A distributed algorithm is self-stabilizing if after faults and attacks hit the system and place it in some arbitrary global state, the systems recovers from this catastrophic situation without external intervention in finite time. Unidirectional networks preclude many common techniques in self-stabilization from being used, such as preserving local predicates. In this paper, we investigate the intrinsic complexity of achieving self-stabilization in unidirectional networks, and focus on the classical vertex coloring problem. When deterministic solutions are considered, we prove a lower bound of $n$ states per process (where $n$ is the network size) and a recovery time of at least $n(n-1)/2$ actions in total. We present a deterministic algorithm with matching upper bounds that performs in arbitrary graphs. When probabilistic solutions are considered, we observe that at least $\Delta + 1$ states per process and a recovery time of $\Omega(n)$ actions in total are required (where $\Delta$ denotes the maximal degree of the underlying simple undirected graph). We present a probabilistically self-stabilizing algorithm that uses $\mathtt{k}$ states per process, where $\mathtt{k}$ is a parameter of the algorithm. When $\mathtt{k}=\Delta+1$, the algorithm recovers in expected $O(\Delta n)$ actions. When $\mathtt{k}$ may grow arbitrarily, the algorithm recovers in expected O(n) actions in total. Thus, our algorithm can be made optimal with respect to space or time complexity