Mondrian Forests for Large-Scale Regression when Uncertainty Matters

Many real-world regression problems demand a measure of the uncertainty associated with each prediction. Standard decision forests deliver efficient state-of-the-art predictive performance, but high-quality uncertainty estimates are lacking. Gaussian processes (GPs) deliver uncertainty estimates, but scaling GPs to large-scale data sets comes at the cost of approximating the uncertainty estimates. We extend Mondrian forests, first proposed by Lakshminarayanan et al. (2014) for classification problems, to the large-scale non-parametric regression setting. Using a novel hierarchical Gaussian prior that dovetails with the Mondrian forest framework, we obtain principled uncertainty estimates, while still retaining the computational advantages of decision forests. Through a combination of illustrative examples, real-world large-scale datasets, and Bayesian optimization benchmarks, we demonstrate that Mondrian forests outperform approximate GPs on large-scale regression tasks and deliver better-calibrated uncertainty assessments than decision-forest-based methods.Comment: Proceedings of the 19th International Conference on Artificial Intelligence and Statistics (AISTATS) 2016, Cadiz, Spain. JMLR: W&CP volume 5

Informative Path Planning for Active Field Mapping under Localization Uncertainty

Information gathering algorithms play a key role in unlocking the potential of robots for efficient data collection in a wide range of applications. However, most existing strategies neglect the fundamental problem of the robot pose uncertainty, which is an implicit requirement for creating robust, high-quality maps. To address this issue, we introduce an informative planning framework for active mapping that explicitly accounts for the pose uncertainty in both the mapping and planning tasks. Our strategy exploits a Gaussian Process (GP) model to capture a target environmental field given the uncertainty on its inputs. For planning, we formulate a new utility function that couples the localization and field mapping objectives in GP-based mapping scenarios in a principled way, without relying on any manually tuned parameters. Extensive simulations show that our approach outperforms existing strategies, with reductions in mean pose uncertainty and map error. We also present a proof of concept in an indoor temperature mapping scenario.Comment: 8 pages, 7 figures, submission (revised) to Robotics & Automation Letters (and IEEE International Conference on Robotics and Automation

Monte Carlo Approaches to Parameterized Poker Squares

The paper summarized a variety of Monte Carlo approaches employed in the top three performing entries to the Parameterized Poker Squares NSG Challenge competition. In all cases AI players benefited from real-time machine learning and various Monte Carlo game-tree search techniques

Toward Optimal Run Racing: Application to Deep Learning Calibration

This paper aims at one-shot learning of deep neural nets, where a highly parallel setting is considered to address the algorithm calibration problem - selecting the best neural architecture and learning hyper-parameter values depending on the dataset at hand. The notoriously expensive calibration problem is optimally reduced by detecting and early stopping non-optimal runs. The theoretical contribution regards the optimality guarantees within the multiple hypothesis testing framework. Experimentations on the Cifar10, PTB and Wiki benchmarks demonstrate the relevance of the approach with a principled and consistent improvement on the state of the art with no extra hyper-parameter

Gaussian Process Planning with Lipschitz Continuous Reward Functions: Towards Unifying Bayesian Optimization, Active Learning, and Beyond

This paper presents a novel nonmyopic adaptive Gaussian process planning (GPP) framework endowed with a general class of Lipschitz continuous reward functions that can unify some active learning/sensing and Bayesian optimization criteria and offer practitioners some flexibility to specify their desired choices for defining new tasks/problems. In particular, it utilizes a principled Bayesian sequential decision problem framework for jointly and naturally optimizing the exploration-exploitation trade-off. In general, the resulting induced GPP policy cannot be derived exactly due to an uncountable set of candidate observations. A key contribution of our work here thus lies in exploiting the Lipschitz continuity of the reward functions to solve for a nonmyopic adaptive epsilon-optimal GPP (epsilon-GPP) policy. To plan in real time, we further propose an asymptotically optimal, branch-and-bound anytime variant of epsilon-GPP with performance guarantee. We empirically demonstrate the effectiveness of our epsilon-GPP policy and its anytime variant in Bayesian optimization and an energy harvesting task.Comment: 30th AAAI Conference on Artificial Intelligence (AAAI 2016), Extended version with proofs, 17 page