Pilot testing methodologies, models, scenarios and validation approach

This report describes the pilot tests that will be carried out within GARPUR. The pilot tests aim at assessing and validating, as closely as possible to real-life conditions, the new Reliability Management Approach and Criteria (RMACs) developed in work package 2 and the socio-economic impact assessment framework developed in work package 3, while considering the methodologies and approaches for practical implementation in work packages 4, 5 and 6. The proposed RMACs are compared against the current N-1 practices and approaches determined in work package 1. In addition, some pilot tests will make use of the GARPUR Quantification Platform (GQP) that has been developed by work package 7. A total of eight pilot tests are proposed by five different transmission system operators (TSOs) and given different priority levels for implementation. Three pilot tests make use of the GQP. The five other pilot tests will be implemented at TSOs’ premises in near real-life context. The pilot tests cover real-time operations, short-term operation planning and long-term system development. Different indicators are proposed to assess the proposed reliability management approach and criteria and compare them with current practices. The diversity of the pilot tests in terms of time horizons and the number of involved TSOs demonstrate the general nature of the reliability management approach and criteria proposed within GARPUR

Critical Infrastructures: Enhancing Preparedness & Resilience for the Security of Citizens and Services Supply Continuity: Proceedings of the 52nd ESReDA Seminar Hosted by the Lithuanian Energy Institute & Vytautas Magnus University

Critical Infrastructures Preparedness and Resilience is a major societal security issue in modern society. Critical Infrastructures (CIs) provide vital services to modern societies. Some CIs’ disruptions may endanger the security of the citizen, the safety of the strategic assets and even the governance continuity. The European Safety, Reliability and Data Association (ESReDA) as one of the most active EU networks in the field has initiated a project group on the “Critical Infrastructure/Modelling, Simulation and Analysis – Data”. The main focus of the project group is to report on the state of progress in MS&A of the CIs preparedness & resilience with a specific focus on the corresponding data availability and relevance. In order to report on the most recent developments in the field of the CIs preparedness & resilience MS&A and the availability of the relevant data, ESReDA held its 52nd Seminar on the following thematic: “Critical Infrastructures: Enhancing Preparedness & Resilience for the security of citizens and services supply continuity”. The 52nd ESReDA Seminar was a very successful event, which attracted about 50 participants from industry, authorities, operators, research centres, academia and consultancy companies.JRC.G.10-Knowledge for Nuclear Security and Safet

The safety case and the lessons learned for the reliability and maintainability case

This paper examine the safety case and the lessons learned for the reliability and maintainability case

Generally Accepted Reliability Principle with Uncertainty Modelling and Through Probabilistic Risk Assessment : Functional Analysis of System Development Process

This report gives a functional analysis of the current system development process among European TSOs. System development deals with taking decisions that change transmission capacities either within a TSO’s own system or towards other TSOs systems. Inputs to this report have been gathered from workshops in the GARPUR project and a questionnaire to 10 TSOs that are either part of GARPUR consortium or a member of GARPUR reference group. Despite the limited number of respondents to the questionnaire, the responses are quite representative for European practice since the respondents represent different system sizes, characteristics and control zones within Europe

Power system security enhancement by HVDC links using a closed-loop emergency control

In recent years, guaranteeing that large-scale interconnected systems operate safely, stably and economically has become a major and emergency issue. A number of high profile blackouts caused by cascading outages have focused attention on this issue. Embedded HVDC (High Voltage Direct Current) links within a larger AC power system are known to act as a “firewall” against cascading disturbances and therefore, can effectively contribute in preventing blackouts. A good example is the 2003 blackout in USA and Canada, where the Québec grid was not affected due to its HVDC interconnection. In the literature, many works have studied the impact of HVDC on the power system stability, but very few examples exist in the area of its impact on the system security. This paper presents a control strategy for HVDC systems to increase their contribution to system security. A real-time closed-loop control scheme is used to modulate the DC power of HVDC links to alleviate AC system overloads and improve system security. Simulations carried out on a simplified model of the Hydro-Québec network show that the proposed method works well and can greatly improve system security during emergency situations.Peer reviewedFinal Accepted Versio

A Quantitative Research Study on Probability Risk Assessments in Critical Infrastructure and Homeland Security

This dissertation encompassed quantitative research on probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) elements in homeland security and the impact on critical infrastructure and key resources. There are 16 crucial infrastructure sectors in homeland security that represent assets, system networks, virtual and physical environments, roads and bridges, transportation, and air travel. The design included the Bayes theorem, a process used in PRAs when determining potential or probable events, causes, outcomes, and risks. The goal is to mitigate the effects of domestic terrorism and natural and man-made disasters, respond to events related to critical infrastructure that can impact the United States, and help protect and secure natural gas pipelines and electrical grid systems. This study provides data from current risk assessment trends in PRAs that can be applied and designed in elements of homeland security and the criminal justice system to help protect critical infrastructures. The dissertation will highlight the aspects of the U.S. Department of Homeland Security National Infrastructure Protection Plan (NIPP). In addition, this framework was employed to examine the criminal justice triangle, explore crime problems and emergency preparedness solutions to protect critical infrastructures, and analyze data relevant to risk assessment procedures for each critical infrastructure identified. Finally, the study addressed the drivers and gaps in research related to protecting and securing natural gas pipelines and electrical grid systems

Theoretical model for cascading effects analyses

Abstract In case of exceptional events of natural or anthropogenic type, the elements at risk (people, buildings, infrastructures, economy, etc.) are often hit by sequences of 'cascading events', function of time and space, caused by the triggering event (earthquake, landslide, volcanic eruption, fire, electric failure, etc.). Generally, sequences of events can involve the same element at risk, and the combined effects of cascading phenomena can strongly amplify the impact caused by single events in terms of extension of the affected area and damage level. The final impact on the territory can be significant and require to be carefully assessed in terms of emergency planning and management. This paper discusses from a theoretical point of view the modelling needs and the main issues to be taken into account in the development of simulation tools aiming to include cascading effects analyses to effectively support decision-makers in their preparedness and disaster mitigation strategies in the framework of emergency planning at local, national and international level. The model aims at developing cascading effects scenarios at different level of detail, depending on the availability of inventory/exposure data for the different categories of elements at risk and hazard/impact models for the various hazard sources. It has been developed within EU-FP7 SNOWBALL project (Lower the impact of aggravating factors in crisis situations thanks to adaptive foresight and decision-support tools, 2015–2017)