A decision-theoretic approach for segmental classification

This paper is concerned with statistical methods for the segmental classification of linear sequence data where the task is to segment and classify the data according to an underlying hidden discrete state sequence. Such analysis is commonplace in the empirical sciences including genomics, finance and speech processing. In particular, we are interested in answering the following question: given data $y$ and a statistical model $\pi(x,y)$ of the hidden states $x$, what should we report as the prediction $\hat{x}$ under the posterior distribution $\pi (x|y)$? That is, how should you make a prediction of the underlying states? We demonstrate that traditional approaches such as reporting the most probable state sequence or most probable set of marginal predictions can give undesirable classification artefacts and offer limited control over the properties of the prediction. We propose a decision theoretic approach using a novel class of Markov loss functions and report $\hat{x}$ via the principle of minimum expected loss (maximum expected utility). We demonstrate that the sequence of minimum expected loss under the Markov loss function can be enumerated exactly using dynamic programming methods and that it offers flexibility and performance improvements over existing techniques. The result is generic and applicable to any probabilistic model on a sequence, such as Hidden Markov models, change point or product partition models.Comment: Published in at http://dx.doi.org/10.1214/13-AOAS657 the Annals of Applied Statistics (http://www.imstat.org/aoas/) by the Institute of Mathematical Statistics (http://www.imstat.org

TWO-STAGE MODEL SELECTION WITH PARAMETERS WEIGHTED HIDDEN MARKOV MODELS AND LIKELIHOOD RATIO FOR PART-OF-SPEECH TAGGING

Abstract: In many natural language processing applications two or more models usually have to be involved for accuracy. But it is difficult for minor models, such as "backoff" taggers in part-of-speech tagging, to cooperate smoothly with the major probabilistic model. We introduce a two-stage approach for model selection between hidden Markov models and other minor models. In the first stage, the major model is extended to give a set of candidates for model selection. Parameters weighted hidden Markov model is presented using weighted ratio to create the candidate set. In the second stage, heuristic rules and features are used as evaluation functions to give extra scores to candidates in the set. Such scores are calculated using a diagnostic likelihood ratio test based on sensitivity and specificity criteria. The selection procedure can be fulfilled using swarm optimization technique. Experiment results on public tagging data sets show the applicability of the proposed approach

Hypovigilance Detection for UCAV Operators Based on a Hidden Markov Model

With the advance of military technology, the number of unmanned combat aerial vehicles (UCAVs) has rapidly increased. However, it has been reported that the accident rate of UCAVs is much higher than that of manned combat aerial vehicles. One of the main reasons for the high accident rate of UCAVs is the hypovigilance problem which refers to the decrease in vigilance levels of UCAV operators while maneuvering. In this paper, we propose hypovigilance detection models for UCAV operators based on EEG signal to minimize the number of occurrences of hypovigilance. To enable detection, we have applied hidden Markov models (HMMs), two of which are used to indicate the operators' dual states, normal vigilance and hypovigilance, and, for each operator, the HMMs are trained as a detection model. To evaluate the efficacy and effectiveness of the proposed models, we conducted two experiments on the real-world data obtained by using EEG-signal acquisition devices, and they yielded satisfactory results. By utilizing the proposed detection models, the problem of hypovigilance of UCAV operators and the problem of high accident rate of UCAVs can be addressed

Hypovigilance Detection for UCAV Operators Based on a Hidden Markov Model

With the advance of military technology, the number of unmanned combat aerial vehicles (UCAVs) has rapidly increased. However, it has been reported that the accident rate of UCAVs is much higher than that of manned combat aerial vehicles. One of the main reasons for the high accident rate of UCAVs is the hypovigilance problem which refers to the decrease in vigilance levels of UCAV operators while maneuvering. In this paper, we propose hypovigilance detection models for UCAV operators based on EEG signal to minimize the number of occurrences of hypovigilance. To enable detection, we have applied hidden Markov models (HMMs), two of which are used to indicate the operators’ dual states, normal vigilance and hypovigilance, and, for each operator, the HMMs are trained as a detection model. To evaluate the efficacy and effectiveness of the proposed models, we conducted two experiments on the real-world data obtained by using EEG-signal acquisition devices, and they yielded satisfactory results. By utilizing the proposed detection models, the problem of hypovigilance of UCAV operators and the problem of high accident rate of UCAVs can be addressed

Pattern Recognition for Command and Control Data Systems

To analyze real-world events, researchers collect observation data from an underlying process and construct models to represent the observed situation. In this work, we consider issues that affect the construction and usage of a specific type of model. Markov models are commonly used because their combination of discrete states and stochastic transitions is suited to applications with both deterministic and stochastic components. Hidden Markov Models (HMMs) are a class of Markov model commonly used in pattern recognition. We first demonstrate how to construct HMMs using only the observation data, and no a priori information, by extending a previously developed approach from J.P. Crutchfield and C.R. Shalizi. We also show how to determine with a level of statistical confidence whether or not the model fully encapsulates the underlying process. Once models are constructed from observation data, the models are used to identify other types of observations. Traditional approaches consider the maximum likelihood that the model matches the observation, solving a classification problem. We present a new method using confidence intervals and receiver operating characteristic curves. Our method solves a detection problem by determining if observation data matches zero, one, or more than one model. To detect the occurrence of a behavior in observation data, one must consider the amount of data required. We consider behaviors to be \u27serial Markovian,\u27 when the behavior can change from one model to another at any time. When analyzing observation data, considering too much data induces high delay and could lead to confusion in the system if multiple behaviors are observed in the data stream. If too little data is used, the system has a high false positive rate and is unable to correctly detect behaviors. We demonstrate the effectiveness of all methods using illustrative examples and consumer behavior data

An Ordinal Approach to Affective Computing

Both depression prediction and emotion recognition systems are often based on ordinal ground truth due to subjectively annotated datasets. Yet, both have so far been posed as classification or regression problems. These naive approaches have fundamental issues because they are not focused on ordering, unlike ordinal regression, which is the most appropriate for truly ordinal ground truth. Ordinal regression to date offers comparatively fewer, more limited methods when compared with other branches in machine learning, and its usage has been limited to specific research domains. Accordingly, this thesis presents investigations into ordinal approaches for affective computing by describing a consistent framework to understand all ordinal system designs, proposing ordinal systems for large datasets, and introducing tools and principles to select suitable system designs and evaluation methods. First, three learning approaches are compared using the support vector framework to establish the empirical advantages of ordinal regression, which is lacking from the current literature. Results on depression and emotion corpora indicate that ordinal regression with proper tuning can improve existing depression and emotion systems. Ordinal logistic regression (OLR), which is an extension of logistic regression for ordinal scales, contributes to a number of model structures, from which the best structure must be chosen. Exploiting the newly proposed computationally efficient greedy algorithm for model structure selection (GREP), OLR outperformed or was comparable with state-of-the-art depression systems on two benchmark depression speech datasets. Deep learning has dominated many affective computing fields, and hence ordinal deep learning is an attractive prospect. However, it is under-studied even in the machine learning literature, which motivates an in-depth analysis of appropriate network architectures and loss functions. One of the significant outcomes of this analysis is the introduction of RankCNet, a novel ordinal network which utilises a surrogate loss function of rank correlation. Not only the modelling algorithm but the choice of evaluation measure depends on the nature of the ground truth. Rank correlation measures, which are sensitive to ordering, are more apt for ordinal problems than common classification or regression measures that ignore ordering information. Although rank-based evaluation for ordinal problems is not new, so far in affective computing, ordinality of the ground truth has been widely ignored during evaluation. Hence, a systematic analysis in the affective computing context is presented, to provide clarity and encourage careful choice of evaluation measures. Another contribution is a neural network framework with a novel multi-term loss function to assess the ordinality of ordinally-annotated datasets, which can guide the selection of suitable learning and evaluation methods. Experiments on multiple synthetic and affective speech datasets reveal that the proposed system can offer reliable and meaningful predictions about the ordinality of a given dataset. Overall, the novel contributions and findings presented in this thesis not only improve prediction accuracy but also encourage future research towards ordinal affective computing: a different paradigm, but often the most appropriate