Predicting the outcome of renal transplantation

ObjectiveRenal transplantation has dramatically improved the survival rate of hemodialysis patients. However, with a growing proportion of marginal organs and improved immunosuppression, it is necessary to verify that the established allocation system, mostly based on human leukocyte antigen matching, still meets today's needs. The authors turn to machine-learning techniques to predict, from donor-recipient data, the estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) of the recipient 1 year after transplantation.DesignThe patient's eGFR was predicted using donor-recipient characteristics available at the time of transplantation. Donors' data were obtained from Eurotransplant's database, while recipients' details were retrieved from Charite Campus Virchow-Klinikum's database. A total of 707 renal transplantations from cadaveric donors were included.MeasurementsTwo separate datasets were created, taking features with <10% missing values for one and <50% missing values for the other. Four established regressors were run on both datasets, with and without feature selection.ResultsThe authors obtained a Pearson correlation coefficient between predicted and real eGFR (COR) of 0.48. The best model for the dataset was a Gaussian support vector machine with recursive feature elimination on the more inclusive dataset. All results are available at http://transplant.molgen.mpg.de/.LimitationsFor now, missing values in the data must be predicted and filled in. The performance is not as high as hoped, but the dataset seems to be the main cause.ConclusionsPredicting the outcome is possible with the dataset at hand (COR=0.48). Valuable features include age and creatinine levels of the donor, as well as sex and weight of the recipient

Clinical review: Biomarkers of acute kidney injury: where are we now?

The recognition that acute kidney injury (AKI) is a significant independent risk factor for morbidity and mortality has resulted in a substantial number of publications over the past 5 years or more. In no small part these have, to a degree, highlighted the inadequacy of conventional markers of renal insufficiency in the acute setting. Much effort has been invested in the identification of early, specific AKI markers in order to aid early diagnosis of AKI and hopefully improve outcome. The search for a 'biomarker' of AKI has seen early promise replaced by a degree of pessimism due to the lack of a clear candidate molecule and variability of results. We outline the major studies described to date as well as discuss potential reasons for the discrepancies observed and suggest that evolution of the field may result in success with ultimately an improvement in patient outcomes

Biomarkers in solid organ transplantation: establishing personalized transplantation medicine.

Technological advances in molecular and in silico research have enabled significant progress towards personalized transplantation medicine. It is now possible to conduct comprehensive biomarker development studies of transplant organ pathologies, correlating genomic, transcriptomic and proteomic information from donor and recipient with clinical and histological phenotypes. Translation of these advances to the clinical setting will allow assessment of an individual patient's risk of allograft damage or accommodation. Transplantation biomarkers are needed for active monitoring of immunosuppression, to reduce patient morbidity, and to improve long-term allograft function and life expectancy. Here, we highlight recent pre- and post-transplantation biomarkers of acute and chronic allograft damage or adaptation, focusing on peripheral blood-based methodologies for non-invasive application. We then critically discuss current findings with respect to their future application in routine clinical transplantation medicine. Complement-system-associated SNPs present potential biomarkers that may be used to indicate the baseline risk for allograft damage prior to transplantation. The detection of antibodies against novel, non-HLA, MICA antigens, and the expression of cytokine genes and proteins and cytotoxicity-related genes have been correlated with allograft damage and are potential post-transplantation biomarkers indicating allograft damage at the molecular level, although these do not have clinical relevance yet. Several multi-gene expression-based biomarker panels have been identified that accurately predicted graft accommodation in liver transplant recipients and may be developed into a predictive biomarker assay

Reduced functional measure of cardiovascular reserve predicts admission to critical care unit following kidney transplantation

Background: There is currently no effective preoperative assessment for patients undergoing kidney transplantation that is able to identify those at high perioperative risk requiring admission to critical care unit (CCU). We sought to determine if functional measures of cardiovascular reserve, in particular the anaerobic threshold (VO2AT) could identify these patients. Methods: Adult patients were assessed within 4 weeks prior to kidney transplantation in a University hospital with a 37-bed CCU, between April 2010 and June 2012. Cardiopulmonary exercise testing (CPET), echocardiography and arterial applanation tonometry were performed. Results: There were 70 participants (age 41.7614.5 years, 60% male, 91.4% living donor kidney recipients, 23.4% were desensitized). 14 patients (20%) required escalation of care from the ward to CCU following transplantation. Reduced anaerobic threshold (VO2AT) was the most significant predictor, independently (OR = 0.43; 95% CI 0.27–0.68; p,0.001) and in the multivariate logistic regression analysis (adjusted OR = 0.26; 95% CI 0.12–0.59; p = 0.001). The area under the receiveroperating- characteristic curve was 0.93, based on a risk prediction model that incorporated VO2AT, body mass index and desensitization status. Neither echocardiographic nor measures of aortic compliance were significantly associated with CCU admission. Conclusions: To our knowledge, this is the first prospective observational study to demonstrate the usefulness of CPET as a preoperative risk stratification tool for patients undergoing kidney transplantation. The study suggests that VO2AT has the potential to predict perioperative morbidity in kidney transplant recipients

Preimplantation biopsy predicts delayed graft function, glomerular filtration rate and long-term graft survival of transplanted kidneys

Background The predictive value of preimplantation biopsies for long-term graft function is often limited by conflicting results. The aim of this study was to evaluate the influence of time-zero graft biopsy histological scores on early and late graft function, graft survival and patient survival, at different time points. Methods We retrospectively analyzed 284 preimplantation biopsies at a single center, in a cohort of recipients with grafts from live and deceased donors (standard and nonstandard), and their impact in posttransplant renal function after a mean follow-up of 7 years (range 1–16). Implantation biopsy score (IBS), a combination score derived from 4 histopathological aspects, was determined from each sample. The correlation with incidence of delayed graft function (DGF), creatinine clearance (1st, 3rd and 5th posttransplant year) and graft and patient survival at 1 and 5 years were evaluated. Results Preimplantation biopsies provided somewhat of a prognostic index of early function and outcome of the transplanted kidney in the short and long term. In the immediate posttransplantation period, the degree of arteriolosclerosis and interstitial fibrosis correlated better with the presence of DGF. IBS values between 4 and 6 were predictive of worst renal function at 1st and 3rd years posttransplant and 5-year graft survival. The most important histological finding, in effectively transplanted grafts, was the grade of interstitial fibrosis. Patient survival was not influenced by IBS. Conclusions Higher preimplantation biopsy scores predicted an increased risk of early graft losses, especially primary nonfunction. Graft survival (at 1st and 5th years after transplant) but not patient survival was predicted by IBS

Pre-transplant CDKN2A expression in kidney biopsies predicts renal function and is a future component of donor scoring criteria

CDKN2A is a proven and validated biomarker of ageing which acts as an off switch for cell proliferation. We have demonstrated previously that CDKN2A is the most robust and the strongest pre-transplant predictor of post- transplant serum creatinine when compared to “Gold Standard” clinical factors, such as cold ischaemic time and donor chronological age. This report shows that CDKN2A is better than telomere length, the most celebrated biomarker of ageing, as a predictor of post-transplant renal function. It also shows that CDKN2A is as strong a determinant of post-transplant organ function when compared to extended criteria (ECD) kidneys. A multivariate analysis model was able to predict up to 27.1% of eGFR at one year post-transplant (p = 0.008). Significantly, CDKN2A was also able to strongly predict delayed graft function. A pre-transplant donor risk classification system based on CDKN2A and ECD criteria is shown to be feasible and commendable for implementation in the near future

Acute kidney injury and post-reperfusion syndrome in liver transplantation

In the past decades liver transplantation (LT) has become the treatment of choice for patients with end stage liver disease (ESLD). The chronic shortage of cadaveric organs for transplantation led to the utilization of a greater number of marginal donors such as older donors or donors after circulatory death (DCD). The improved survival of transplanted patients has increased the frequency of long-term complications, in particular chronic kidney disease (CKD). Acute kidney injury (AKI) post-LT has been recently recognized as an important risk factor for the occurrence of de novo CKD in the long-term outcome. The onset of AKI post-LT is multifactorial, with pre-LT risk factors involved, including higher Model for End-stage Liver Disease score, more sever ESLD and pre-existing renal dysfunction, either with intra-operative conditions, in particular ischaemia reperfusion injury responsible for post-reperfusion syndrome (PRS) that can influence recipient’s morbidity and mortality. Post-reperfusion syndrome-induced AKI is an important complication post-LT that characterizes kidney involvement caused by PRS with mechanisms not clearly understood and implication on graft and patient survival. Since pre-LT risk factors may influence intra-operative events responsible for PRS-induced AKI, we aim to consider all the relevant aspects involved in PRS-induced AKI in the setting of LT and to identify all studies that better clarified the specific mechanisms linking PRS and AKI. A PubMed search was conducted using the terms liver transplantation AND acute kidney injury; liver transplantation AND post-reperfusion syndrome; acute kidney injury AND post-reperfusion syndrome; acute kidney injury AND DCD AND liver transplantation. Five hundred seventy four articles were retrieved on PubMed search. Results were limited to title/abstract of English-language articles published between 2000 and 2015. Twenty-three studies were identified that specifically evaluated incidence, risk factors and outcome for patients developing PRS-induced AKI in liver transplantation. In order to identify intra-operative risk factors/mechanisms specifically involved in PRS-induced AKI, avoiding confounding factors, we have limited our study to “acute kidney injury AND DCD AND liver transplantation”. Accordingly, three out of five studies were selected for our purpose

A Clinical Prediction Score to Guide Referral of Elderly Dialysis Patients for Kidney Transplant Evaluation.

IntroductionDialysis patients aged ≥70 years derive improved life expectancy through kidney transplantation compared to their waitlisted counterparts, but guidelines are not clear about how to identify appropriate transplantation candidates. We developed a clinical prediction score to identify elderly dialysis patients with expected 5-year survival appropriate for kidney transplantation (&gt;5 years).MethodsIncident dialysis patients in 2006-2009 aged ≥70 were identified from the United States Renal Data System database and divided into derivation and validation cohorts. Using the derivation cohort, candidate variables with a significant crude association with 5-year all-cause mortality were included in a multivariable logistic regression model to generate a scoring system. The scoring system was tested in the validation cohort and a cohort of elderly transplant recipients.ResultsCharacteristics most predictive of 5-year mortality included age &gt;80, body mass index (BMI) &lt;18, the presence of congestive heart failure (CHF), chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), immobility, and being institutionalized. Factors associated with increased 5-year survival were non-white race, a primary cause of end stage renal disease (ESRD) other than diabetes, employment within 6 months of dialysis initiation, and dialysis start via arteriovenous fistula (AVF). 5-year mortality was 47% for the lowest risk score group (3.6% of the validation cohort) and &gt;90% for the highest risk cohort (42% of the validation cohort).ConclusionThis clinical prediction score could be useful for physicians to identify potentially suitable candidates for kidney transplantation

The Humoral Theory of Transplantation: Epitope Analysis and the Pathogenicity of HLA Antibodies.

Central to the humoral theory of transplantation is production of antibodies by the recipient against mismatched HLA antigens in the donor organ. Not all mismatches result in antibody production, however, and not all antibodies are pathogenic. Serologic HLA matching has been the standard for solid organ allocation algorithms in current use. Antibodies do not recognize whole HLA molecules but rather polymorphic residues on the surface, called epitopes, which may be shared by multiple serologic HLA antigens. Data are accumulating that epitope analysis may be a better way to determine organ compatibility as well as the potential immunogenicity of given HLA mismatches. Determination of the pathogenicity of alloantibodies is evolving. Potential features include antibody strength (as assessed by antibody titer or, more commonly and inappropriately, mean fluorescence intensity) and ability to fix complement (in vitro by C1q or C3d assay or by IgG subclass analysis). Technical issues with the use of solid phase assays are also of prime importance, such as denaturation of HLA antigens and manufacturing and laboratory variability. Questions and controversies remain, and here we review new relevant data