Practical Bayesian Modeling and Inference for Massive Spatial Datasets On Modest Computing Environments

With continued advances in Geographic Information Systems and related computational technologies, statisticians are often required to analyze very large spatial datasets. This has generated substantial interest over the last decade, already too vast to be summarized here, in scalable methodologies for analyzing large spatial datasets. Scalable spatial process models have been found especially attractive due to their richness and flexibility and, particularly so in the Bayesian paradigm, due to their presence in hierarchical model settings. However, the vast majority of research articles present in this domain have been geared toward innovative theory or more complex model development. Very limited attention has been accorded to approaches for easily implementable scalable hierarchical models for the practicing scientist or spatial analyst. This article is submitted to the Practice section of the journal with the aim of developing massively scalable Bayesian approaches that can rapidly deliver Bayesian inference on spatial process that are practically indistinguishable from inference obtained using more expensive alternatives. A key emphasis is on implementation within very standard (modest) computing environments (e.g., a standard desktop or laptop) using easily available statistical software packages without requiring message-parsing interfaces or parallel programming paradigms. Key insights are offered regarding assumptions and approximations concerning practical efficiency.Comment: 20 pages, 4 figures, 2 table

Efficient variational inference in large-scale Bayesian compressed sensing

We study linear models under heavy-tailed priors from a probabilistic viewpoint. Instead of computing a single sparse most probable (MAP) solution as in standard deterministic approaches, the focus in the Bayesian compressed sensing framework shifts towards capturing the full posterior distribution on the latent variables, which allows quantifying the estimation uncertainty and learning model parameters using maximum likelihood. The exact posterior distribution under the sparse linear model is intractable and we concentrate on variational Bayesian techniques to approximate it. Repeatedly computing Gaussian variances turns out to be a key requisite and constitutes the main computational bottleneck in applying variational techniques in large-scale problems. We leverage on the recently proposed Perturb-and-MAP algorithm for drawing exact samples from Gaussian Markov random fields (GMRF). The main technical contribution of our paper is to show that estimating Gaussian variances using a relatively small number of such efficiently drawn random samples is much more effective than alternative general-purpose variance estimation techniques. By reducing the problem of variance estimation to standard optimization primitives, the resulting variational algorithms are fully scalable and parallelizable, allowing Bayesian computations in extremely large-scale problems with the same memory and time complexity requirements as conventional point estimation techniques. We illustrate these ideas with experiments in image deblurring.Comment: 8 pages, 3 figures, appears in Proc. IEEE Workshop on Information Theory in Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition (in conjunction with ICCV-11), Barcelona, Spain, Nov. 201

Probabilistic Programming for Deep Learning

We propose the idea of deep probabilistic programming, a synthesis of advances for systems at the intersection of probabilistic modeling and deep learning. Such systems enable the development of new probabilistic models and inference algorithms that would otherwise be impossible: enabling unprecedented scales to billions of parameters, distributed and mixed precision environments, and AI accelerators; integration with neural architectures for modeling massive and high-dimensional datasets; and the use of computation graphs for automatic differentiation and arbitrary manipulation of probabilistic programs for flexible inference and model criticism. After describing deep probabilistic programming, we discuss applications in novel variational inference algorithms and deep probabilistic models. First, we introduce the variational Gaussian process (VGP), a Bayesian nonparametric variational family, which adapts its shape to match complex posterior distributions. The VGP generates approximate posterior samples by generating latent inputs and warping them through random non-linear mappings; the distribution over random mappings is learned during inference, enabling the transformed outputs to adapt to varying complexity of the true posterior. Second, we introduce hierarchical implicit models (HIMs). HIMs combine the idea of implicit densities with hierarchical Bayesian modeling, thereby defining models via simulators of data with rich hidden structure

Scalable learning for geostatistics and speaker recognition

With improved data acquisition methods, the amount of data that is being collected has increased severalfold. One of the objectives in data collection is to learn useful underlying patterns. In order to work with data at this scale, the methods not only need to be effective with the underlying data, but also have to be scalable to handle larger data collections. This thesis focuses on developing scalable and effective methods targeted towards different domains, geostatistics and speaker recognition in particular. Initially we focus on kernel based learning methods and develop a GPU based parallel framework for this class of problems. An improved numerical algorithm that utilizes the GPU parallelization to further enhance the computational performance of kernel regression is proposed. These methods are then demonstrated on problems arising in geostatistics and speaker recognition. In geostatistics, data is often collected at scattered locations and factors like instrument malfunctioning lead to missing observations. Applications often require the ability interpolate this scattered spatiotemporal data on to a regular grid continuously over time. This problem can be formulated as a regression problem, and one of the most popular geostatistical interpolation techniques, kriging is analogous to a standard kernel method: Gaussian process regression. Kriging is computationally expensive and needs major modifications and accelerations in order to be used practically. The GPU framework developed for kernel methods is extended to kriging and further the GPU's texture memory is better utilized for enhanced computational performance. Speaker recognition deals with the task of verifying a person's identity based on samples of his/her speech - "utterances". This thesis focuses on text-independent framework and three new recognition frameworks were developed for this problem. We proposed a kernelized Renyi distance based similarity scoring for speaker recognition. While its performance is promising, it does not generalize well for limited training data and therefore does not compare well to state-of-the-art recognition systems. These systems compensate for the variability in the speech data due to the message, channel variability, noise and reverberation. State-of-the-art systems model each speaker as a mixture of Gaussians (GMM) and compensate for the variability (termed "nuisance"). We propose a novel discriminative framework using a latent variable technique, partial least squares (PLS), for improved recognition. The kernelized version of this algorithm is used to achieve a state of the art speaker ID system, that shows results competitive with the best systems reported on in NIST's 2010 Speaker Recognition Evaluation