Optimizing Stadium Evacuation by Integrating Geo-Computation and Affordance Theory

The purpose of this project was to optimize football stadium evacuation time by integrating geo-computation with affordance theory from perceptual psychology to account for evacuee characteristics: age, gender, physical fitness, alcohol consumption, and prior experience attending football games at The University of Southern Mississippi (USM), evacuating from large, outdoor public places, and with hazard events. According to the Uniting and Strengthening America by Providing Appropriate Tools Required to Intercept and Obstruct Terrorism (USA PATRIOT) Act, football stadiums are part of the country’s critical infrastructure warranting special government protection. Evacuation modeling was identified as an important component of game day emergency preparation. Research shows that: (1) the age, gender, and physical fitness of an individual impact his/her locomotion speed; (2) evacuation route choice is influenced by the perception of its safety and effectiveness; and (3) prior evacuation experience affects evacuation decision-making processes. By including these factors, this research, conducted at USM’s M.M. Roberts Stadium, represents the reality of evacuee movement and behaviors that influence stadium evacuation time. A questionnaire-based survey was administered to game attendees prior to a USM home game to gather evacuee attribute data that influenced locomotion speed. This data, plus secondary spatial data, were used in an agent-based model to model individual evacuee movement. The time required for all evacuees to exit the stadium and campus was 165.16 minutes. This time was significantly shorter than evacuation times from the same location using non-location-specific evacuee locomotion speeds, suggesting that use of local data is vital to accurately depicting evacuation time. The findings also indicated that age and gender were the two main factors that impacted locomotion speeds. The main contributions of this study were: (1) optimizing evacuation time by using location-specific locomotion speeds and (2) providing insights into how evacuees’ physical and mental health influence their evacuation decision-making processes. The U.S. government and sports management industry could use these findings to increase game day safety and security. Due to the spatio-temporal nature of evacuation modeling and perceptions of evacuees that impact evacuation time, this research contributed to the fields of geography, computer science, sport management, psychology, and emergency management

The Effects of Carry-on Baggage on Aircraft Evacuation Efficiency

The most frequent obstacle of an aircraft evacuation is the passengers carrying baggage while evacuating. Passengers who insist on taking their carry-on baggage during an emergency evacuation not only slow down the evacuation process but also act as a significant risk to the safety of other passengers. This study investigated the factors that affect passengers’ behavioral intention to evacuate with carry-on baggage and the effects of evacuating with carry-on baggage on the total evacuation time. Overall, two studies were conducted to provide an outline of the factors that affect and affected by carry-on baggage. Study 1 used an agent-based model, AnyLogic, to simulate the aircraft evacuation model of an A380. The model was validated, and a two-way Analysis of Variance (ANOVA) was conducted to examine the effects of the percentage of passengers evacuating with carry-on baggage and exit selection choices on the total evacuation time. The simulation results suggested that the mean evacuation time for 0% was significantly lower than 50% and 80%. The mean evacuation time for the shortest queue choice was also lower than the closest exit choice. Study 2 used an expanded theory of planned behavior (TPB) to determine the factors that affect passengers’ intentions to evacuate with carry-on baggage. The total sample size was 281 after data cleaning. The confirmatory factor analysis (CFA) and structural equation model (SEM) were used to analyze the data. The results indicated that attitude was the significant determinant of passengers’ intention to evacuate with carryon baggage. The factor of ‘perceived risk’ was not supported, but the results showed that the opposite effect of the hypothesis was significant. The results of this study fill a gap in the research regarding passengers’ behavior of evacuating with carry-on baggage. Potential applications of this study will also help the federal regulations, airlines, and aircraft manufacturers by providing a better understanding of carry-on baggage at aircraft emergency

Role of opinion sharing on the emergency evacuation dynamics

Emergency evacuation is a critical research topic and any improvement to the existing evacuation models will help in improving the safety of the evacuees. Currently, there are evacuation models that have either an accurate movement model or a sophisticated decision model. Individuals in a crowd tend to share and propagate their opinion. This opinion sharing part is either implicitly modeled or entirely overlooked in most of the existing models. Thus, one of the overarching goal of this research is to the study the effect of opinion evolution through an evacuating crowd. First, the opinion evolution in a crowd was modeled mathematically. Next, the results from the analytical model were validated with a simulation model having a simple motion model. To improve the fidelity of the evacuation model, a more realistic movement and decision model were incorporated and the effect of opinion sharing on the evacuation dynamics was studied extensively. Further, individuals with strong inclination towards particular route were introduced and their effect on overall efficiency was studied. Current evacuation guidance algorithms focuses on efficient crowd evacuation. The method of guidance delivery is generally overlooked. This important gap in guidance delivery is addressed next. Additionally, a virtual reality based immersive experiment is designed to study factors affecting individuals\u27 decision making during emergency evacuation

Exitus: An Agent-Based Evacuation Simulation Model For Heterogeneous Populations

Evacuation planning for private-sector organizations is an important consideration given the continuing occurrence of both natural and human-caused disasters that inordinately affect them. Unfortunately, the traditional management approach that is focused on fire drills presents several practical challenges at the scale required for many organizations but especially those responsible for national critical infrastructure assets such as airports and sports arenas. In this research we developed Exitus, a comprehensive decision support system that may be used to simulate large-scale evacuations of such structures. The system is unique because it considers individuals with disabilities explicitly in terms of physical and psychological attributes. It is also capable of classifying the environment in terms of accessibility characteristics encompassing various conditions that have been shown to have a disproportionate effect upon the behavior of individuals with disabilities during an emergency. The system was applied to three unique test beds: a multi-story office building, an international airport, and a major sports arena. Several simulation experiments revealed specific areas of concern for both building managers and management practice in general. In particular, we were able to show (a) how long evacuations of heterogeneous populations may be expected to last, (b) who the most vulnerable groups of people are, (c) the risk engendered from particular design features for individuals with disabilities, and (d) the potential benefits from adopting alternate evacuation strategies, among others. Considered together, the findings provide a useful foundation for the development of best practices and policies addressing the evacuation concerns surrounding heterogeneous populations in large, complex environments. Ultimately, a capabilities based approach featuring both tactical and strategic planning with an eye toward the unique problems presented by individuals with disabilities is recommended

Development of a Dynamical Egress Behavioural Model under Building Fire Emergency

Building fire accidents, as a continuing menace to the society, not only incur enormous property damage but also pose significant threats to human lives. More recently, driven by the rapid population growth, an increasing number of large-capacity buildings are being built to meet the growing residence demands in many major cities globally, such as Sydney, Hong Kong, London, etc. These modern buildings usually have complex architectural layouts, high-density occupancy settings, which are often filled with a variety of flammable materials and items (i.e., electrical devices, flammable cladding panels etc.). For such reasons, in case of fire accidents, occupants of these buildings are likely to suffer from an extended evacuation time. Moreover, in some extreme cases, occupants may have to escape through a smoke-filled environment. Thus, having well-planned evacuation strategies and fire safety systems in place is critical for upholding life safety. Over the last few decades, due to the rapid development in computing power and modelling techniques, various numerical simulation models have been developed and applied to investigate the building evacuation dynamics under fire emergencies. Most of these numerical models can provide a series of estimations regarding building evacuation performance, such as predicting building evacuation time, visualising evacuation dynamics, identifying high-density areas within the building etc. Nevertheless, the behavioural variations of evacuees are usually overlooked in a significant proportion of such simulations. Noticeably, evacuees frequently adjust their egress behaviours based on their internal psychological state (i.e., the variation of stress) and external stimulus from their surrounding environments (i.e., dynamical fire effluents, such as high-temperature smoke). Evidence suggests that evacuees are likely to shift from a low-stress state to a high-stress state and increase their moving speed when escaping from a high-temperature and smoke-filled environment. Besides, competitive behaviours can even be triggered under certain extremely stressful conditions, which can cause clogging at exits or even stampede accidents. Without considering such behavioural aspects of evacuees, the predicted evacuation performance might be misinterpreted based on unreliable results; thereby, misleading building fire safety designs and emergency precautions. Therefore, to achieve a more realistic simulation of building fire evacuation processes, this research aims to advance in modelling of human dynamical behaviour responses of each evacuee and integrating it into building fire evacuation analysis. A dynamical egress behaviour-based evacuation model that considering the evacuee’s competitive/cooperative egress movements and their psychological stress variation is developed. Furthermore, a fire hazard-integrated evacuation simulation framework is established by coupling with the fire dynamics simulator (i.e., FDS). By means of tracking dynamical interactions between evacuees and the evolutionary fire dynamics within the building space, evacuees’ local fire risks and stress levels under the impacts of locally encountered fire hazards (i.e., radiation, temperature, toxic gas, and visibility) can be effectively quantified. In this study, the developed simulation tool can provide a further in-depth building fire safety assessment. Thus, it contributes to performance-based fire safety engineering in designs and real applications, including reducing budgets and risks of participating in evacuation drills, supporting emergency evacuation strategy planning, mitigating fire risks by identifying risk-prone areas associated with building fire circumstances (e.g., putting preventative measures in place beforehand to intervene or mitigate safety risks, such as mass panic, stampede, stress evoked behaviours)

Pedestrian Evacuation: Vulnerable Group Member Influence on the Group Leaders’ Decision-Making and the Impact on Evacuation Time

As pedestrian evacuations of buildings, outdoor venues, and special events occur, dynamic interactions between pedestrians and vehicles during egress are possible. To model pedestrian and vehicle evacuations, simulation models have evolved to incorporate more realistic crowd characteristics and behaviors to provide improved results. Past studies using modeling and simulation, specifically agent-based modeling, have explored pedestrian behaviors such as decision-making, navigation within a virtual environment, group formations, intra-group interactions, inter-group dynamics, crowd behaviors such as queuing and herding, and pedestrianvehicle interactions. These studies have led to relevant insights helpful to improving the accuracy of evacuation times for normal and emergency egress for preparedness and management purposes. As evacuating crowds are composed of individual pedestrians and social or familial groups, this project contributes to the study of pedestrian evacuation by exploring the incorporation of a subgroup not often considered in this area. Vulnerable individuals, such as the physically disabled, elderly, and children, can change the decision-making dynamic of a group leader while evacuating to safety. Current agent-based simulation models explore the intra- and inter- action and the effects on evacuation times; however, the vulnerable group members\u27 influence is neglected. This project presents enhancements to pedestrian evacuations with vehicle interaction using an agent-based simulation model that includes the presence of vulnerable group members and their impact on decision-making and evacuation times. This project explores how changing behaviors due to the presence of vulnerable group members can collectively cause delays and increase evacuation times. Utilizing verification and validation methods, the credibility and reliability of the simulation model and its results are increased. The results show that the group leaders\u27 decision-making differs when leading a vulnerable group versus a non-vulnerable group. Also, evacuation times increase with increased percentages of vulnerable groups within an evacuating crowd. A simulation tool can be utilized by end-users to explore specific evacuation scenarios in preparation for upcoming events and glean insight into how evacuation times may vary with differing crowd population sizes and compositions. Including vulnerable pedestrians in simulation models for evacuations would improve output accuracy and ultimately improve event training and preparation for future evacuations

Developing an agent-based evacuation simulation model based on the study of human behaviour in fire investigation reports

Fire disasters happen every day all over the world. These hazardous events threaten people's lives and force an immediate movement of people wanting to escape from a dangerous area. Evacuation drills are held to encourage people to practise evacuation skills and to ensure they are familiar with the environment. However, these drills cannot accurately represent real emergency situations and, in some cases, people may be injured during practice. Therefore, modelling pedestrian motion and crowd dynamics in evacuation situations has important implications for human safety, building design, and evacuation processes. This thesis focuses on indoor pedestrian evacuation in fire disasters. To understand how humans behave in emergency situations, and to simulate more realistic human behaviour, this thesis studies human behaviour from fire investigation reports, which provide a variety details about the building, fire circumstance, and human behaviour from professional fire investigation teams. A generic agent-based evacuation model is developed based on common human behaviour that indentified in the fire investigation reports studied. A number of human evacuation behaviours are selected and then used to design different types of agents, assigning with various characteristics. In addition, the interactions between various agents and an evacuation timeline are modelled to simulate human behaviour and evacuation phenomena during evacuation. The application developed is validated using three specific real fire cases to evaluate how closely the simulation results reflected reality. The model provides information on the number of casualties, high-risk areas, egress selections, and evacuation time. In addition, changes to the building configuration, number of occupants, and location of fire origin are tested in order to predict potential risk areas, building capacity and evacuation time for different situations. Consequently, the application can be used to inform building designs, evacuation plans, and priority rescue processes

Hybrid agent-based and social force simulation for modelling human evacuation egress

Simulation has become one of the popular techniques to model evacuation scenarios. Simulation is used as an instrumental for examining human movement during both normal and emergencies such as evacuation. During an evacuation, people will be in a panic situation and egress behaviour that will find the way out from a dangerous place to a safe place. Two well-known techniques in simulation that can incorporate human behaviour inside the simulation models are Agent-Based Simulation and Social Force Simulation. ABS is using the concept of a multi-agent system that consists of decentralized agents which can be autonomous, responsive and proactive. Meanwhile, SFS is a physical force to drive humans dynamically to perform egress actions and human self-organised behaviour in a group. However, the main issue in modelling both ABS or SFS alone is due to their characteristic as ABS have difficulty in modelling the force element and collective behaviours while SFS does not focus on free movements during the evacuation. This behaviour was due to the structure of humans (agents) inside ABS is decentralized which resulting collision among agents and the desired formation of evacuation was not achieved. On the other hand, in a single SFS model, the human was not proactive in finding the way out which was not reflecting the actual behaviour of humans during the evacuation. Both ABS and SFS are potential techniques to be combined due to their characteristics of self-learning and free movement in ABS and self organization in SFS. The research methodology based on modelling and simulation (M&S) life-cycle has been utilized for this work; consists of three main phases, namely preliminary study, model development and validation and verification and finally the experimentation and the results analysis. The M&S life-cycle was utilized aligned with the research aim which is to investigate the performance of the combined ABS and SFS in modelling the egress behaviour during evacuation. To achieve the aim, five evacuation factors have been chosen namely obstacles, the number of exits, exit width, triggered alarm time, and the number of people that have been the most chosen factors in the literature review. Next, three simulation models (using techniques: SFS, ABS and hybrid ABS/SFS) have been developed, verified, and validated based on the real case study data. Various simulation scenarios that will influence the human evacuation movement based on the evacuation factors were modelled and analysed. The simulation results were compared based on the chosen performance measurement parameters (PMP): evacuation time, velocity, flow rate, density and simulation time (model execution time). The simulation results analysis revealed that SFS, ABS, and hybrid ABS/ SFS were found suitable to model evacuation egress (EE) based on the reported PMP. The smallest standard error (SSE) values reported 66% for hybrid ABS/ SFS, 17% for ABS and 17% for SFS where the highest percentage of SSE indicated the most accurate. Based on the experiment results, the hybrid ABS/ SFS revealed a better performance with high effectiveness and accuracy in the simulation model behaviour when modelling various evacuation egress scenarios compared to single ABS and SFS. Thus, hybrid ABS/ SFS was found the most appropriate technique for modelling EE as agents in the hybrid technique were communicating to each other by forming a decentralised control for smooth and safe EE movement. In addition, the impactful factors that affected the result accuracy were exits, the exit width (size), the obstacle and the number of people. Conclusively, this thesis contributed the hybrid ABS/ SFS model for modelling human behaviour during evacuation in a closed area such as an office building to the body of knowledge. Hence, this research was found significant to assist the practitioners and researchers to study the closer representation of human EE behaviour by considering the hybrid ABS/SFS model and the impactful factors of evacuation

Ergonomists as designers: computational modelling and simulation of complex socio-technical systems

Contemporary ergonomics problems are increasing in scale, ambition, and complexity. Understanding and creating solutions for these multi-faceted, dynamic, and systemic problems challenges traditional methods. Computational modelling approaches can help address this methodological shortfall. We illustrate this potential by describing applications of computational modelling to: (1) teamworking within a multi-team engineering environment; (2) crowd behaviour in different transport terminals; and (3) performance of engineering supply chains. Our examples highlight the benefits and challenges for multi-disciplinary approaches to computational modelling, demonstrating the need for socio-technical design principles. Our experience highlights opportunities for ergonomists as designers and users of computational models, and the instrumental role that ergonomics can play in developing and enhancing complex socio-technical systems. Recognising the challenges inherent in designing computational models, we reflect on practical issues and lessons learned so that computational modelling and simulation can become a standard and valuable technique in the ergonomists’ toolkit