Sequential Gaussian Processes for Online Learning of Nonstationary Functions

Many machine learning problems can be framed in the context of estimating functions, and often these are time-dependent functions that are estimated in real-time as observations arrive. Gaussian processes (GPs) are an attractive choice for modeling real-valued nonlinear functions due to their flexibility and uncertainty quantification. However, the typical GP regression model suffers from several drawbacks: i) Conventional GP inference scales $O(N^{3})$ with respect to the number of observations; ii) updating a GP model sequentially is not trivial; and iii) covariance kernels often enforce stationarity constraints on the function, while GPs with non-stationary covariance kernels are often intractable to use in practice. To overcome these issues, we propose an online sequential Monte Carlo algorithm to fit mixtures of GPs that capture non-stationary behavior while allowing for fast, distributed inference. By formulating hyperparameter optimization as a multi-armed bandit problem, we accelerate mixing for real time inference. Our approach empirically improves performance over state-of-the-art methods for online GP estimation in the context of prediction for simulated non-stationary data and hospital time series data

Smoothing and mean-covariance estimation of functional data with a Bayesian hierarchical model

Functional data, with basic observational units being functions (e.g., curves, surfaces) varying over a continuum, are frequently encountered in various applications. While many statistical tools have been developed for functional data analysis, the issue of smoothing all functional observations simultaneously is less studied. Existing methods often focus on smoothing each individual function separately, at the risk of removing important systematic patterns common across functions. We propose a nonparametric Bayesian approach to smooth all functional observations simultaneously and nonparametrically. In the proposed approach, we assume that the functional observations are independent Gaussian processes subject to a common level of measurement errors, enabling the borrowing of strength across all observations. Unlike most Gaussian process regression models that rely on pre-specified structures for the covariance kernel, we adopt a hierarchical framework by assuming a Gaussian process prior for the mean function and an Inverse-Wishart process prior for the covariance function. These prior assumptions induce an automatic mean-covariance estimation in the posterior inference in addition to the simultaneous smoothing of all observations. Such a hierarchical framework is flexible enough to incorporate functional data with different characteristics, including data measured on either common or uncommon grids, and data with either stationary or nonstationary covariance structures. Simulations and real data analysis demonstrate that, in comparison with alternative methods, the proposed Bayesian approach achieves better smoothing accuracy and comparable mean-covariance estimation results. Furthermore, it can successfully retain the systematic patterns in the functional observations that are usually neglected by the existing functional data analyses based on individual-curve smoothing.Comment: Submitted to Bayesian Analysi

High-Dimensional Bayesian Geostatistics

With the growing capabilities of Geographic Information Systems (GIS) and user-friendly software, statisticians today routinely encounter geographically referenced data containing observations from a large number of spatial locations and time points. Over the last decade, hierarchical spatiotemporal process models have become widely deployed statistical tools for researchers to better understand the complex nature of spatial and temporal variability. However, fitting hierarchical spatiotemporal models often involves expensive matrix computations with complexity increasing in cubic order for the number of spatial locations and temporal points. This renders such models unfeasible for large data sets. This article offers a focused review of two methods for constructing well-defined highly scalable spatiotemporal stochastic processes. Both these processes can be used as "priors" for spatiotemporal random fields. The first approach constructs a low-rank process operating on a lower-dimensional subspace. The second approach constructs a Nearest-Neighbor Gaussian Process (NNGP) that ensures sparse precision matrices for its finite realizations. Both processes can be exploited as a scalable prior embedded within a rich hierarchical modeling framework to deliver full Bayesian inference. These approaches can be described as model-based solutions for big spatiotemporal datasets. The models ensure that the algorithmic complexity has $\sim n$ floating point operations (flops), where $n$ the number of spatial locations (per iteration). We compare these methods and provide some insight into their methodological underpinnings

Bayesian Nonstationary Spatial Modeling for Very Large Datasets

With the proliferation of modern high-resolution measuring instruments mounted on satellites, planes, ground-based vehicles and monitoring stations, a need has arisen for statistical methods suitable for the analysis of large spatial datasets observed on large spatial domains. Statistical analyses of such datasets provide two main challenges: First, traditional spatial-statistical techniques are often unable to handle large numbers of observations in a computationally feasible way. Second, for large and heterogeneous spatial domains, it is often not appropriate to assume that a process of interest is stationary over the entire domain. We address the first challenge by using a model combining a low-rank component, which allows for flexible modeling of medium-to-long-range dependence via a set of spatial basis functions, with a tapered remainder component, which allows for modeling of local dependence using a compactly supported covariance function. Addressing the second challenge, we propose two extensions to this model that result in increased flexibility: First, the model is parameterized based on a nonstationary Matern covariance, where the parameters vary smoothly across space. Second, in our fully Bayesian model, all components and parameters are considered random, including the number, locations, and shapes of the basis functions used in the low-rank component. Using simulated data and a real-world dataset of high-resolution soil measurements, we show that both extensions can result in substantial improvements over the current state-of-the-art.Comment: 16 pages, 2 color figure

Distributed Gaussian Processes

To scale Gaussian processes (GPs) to large data sets we introduce the robust Bayesian Committee Machine (rBCM), a practical and scalable product-of-experts model for large-scale distributed GP regression. Unlike state-of-the-art sparse GP approximations, the rBCM is conceptually simple and does not rely on inducing or variational parameters. The key idea is to recursively distribute computations to independent computational units and, subsequently, recombine them to form an overall result. Efficient closed-form inference allows for straightforward parallelisation and distributed computations with a small memory footprint. The rBCM is independent of the computational graph and can be used on heterogeneous computing infrastructures, ranging from laptops to clusters. With sufficient computing resources our distributed GP model can handle arbitrarily large data sets.Comment: 10 pages, 5 figures. Appears in Proceedings of ICML 201