Do Leaders Affect Government Spending Priorities?

Since a key function of competitive elections is to allow voters to express their policy preferences, one might take it for granted that when leadership changes, policy change follows. Using a dataset we created on the composition of central government expenditures in a panel of 71 democracies over 1972-2003, we test whether changes in leadership induce significant changes in one measure of policy - spending composition - as well as looking at the effect of other political and economic variables. We find that the replacement of a leader tends to have no significant effect on expenditure composition in the short-run. This remains true after controlling for a host of political and economic variables. However, over the medium-term leadership changes are associated with larger changes in expenditure composition, mostly in developed countries. We also find that in established democracies, election years are associated with larger changes in expenditure composition while new democracies, which were found by Brender and Drazen (2005) to raise their overall level of expenditures in election years, tend not to have such changes.Budget; Political Leaders; Elections; Fiscal Policy; Expenditure Composition

Monetary Policy, Corporate Financial Composition and Real Activity

This paper addresses two fundamental questions about monetary policy, credit conditions and corporate activity. First, can we relate differences in the composition of debt between tight and loose periods of monetary policy to firm characteristics like size, age, indebtedness or risk? Second, do differences in companies’ financial compositions matter for real activity of firms such as inventory and employment growth? The paper offers some evidence from firms in the UK manufacturing sector which suggests the composition of debt differs considerably with characteristics such as size, age, debt and risk, it also shows a significant effect from financial composition and cash flow to inventory and employment growth.Monetary Policy, Inventory Investment, Employment, Firm Type

A sunspot-based theory of unconventional monetary policy

This paper is about the effectiveness of qualitative easing, a form of unconventional monetary policy that changes the risk composition of the central bank balance sheet. We construct a general equilibrium model where agents have rational expectations, and there is a complete set of financial securities, but where some agents are unable to participate in financial markets. We show that a change in the risk composition of the central bank’s balance sheet affects equilibrium asset prices and economic activity. We prove that, in our model, a policy in which the central bank stabilizes non-fundamental fluctuations in the stock market is self-financing and leads to a Pareto efficient outcome

Immigration policy and self-selecting migrants

I build a simple theory of self-selection into migration and immigration policy formation. I show that any immigration policy affects immigrants skill composition, and this effect may drive the policy outcome in the receiving country. For example, restricting immigration when it is low skilled may worsen immigrants' self-selection and thus the receiving country skill distribution. Hence, understanding the migration decision becomes crucial for analyzing the political economy of immigration. By this composition effect, some natives may support further restrictions even though current immigrants are not harmful for them, and immigration restrictions may be optimal even in a purely utilitarian world.immigrant self-selection ; political economy of immigration ; immigration policy preferences

Do Elections Affect the Composition of Fiscal Policy?

This paper investigates the impact of elections on the level and composition of fiscal instruments using a sample of 19 high-income OECD countries that can be characterized as developed, established democracies during the period 1972-1999. We find that elections shift public spending towards current and away from capital expenditures. Moreover, although we find no evidence for an electoral cycle for government deficit and expenditures, we do find a negative effect of elections on revenue. Our results indicate that the fall in revenue in election periods is attributed to a fall in direct taxation. The decomposition of our electoral dummy suggests that fiscal manipulation seems to be concentrated shortly before the elections. Finally, when we distinguish among predetermined and endogenous elections we find that the above results apply only for the predetermined electoral periods while endogenous elections seem to increase the budget deficit and to leave the composition of fiscal policy unaffected.political budget cycles, elections, composition of fiscal policy, quality of public expenditure

Uncertain Fiscal Consolidations

The paper explores the macroeconomic consequences of fiscal consolidations whose timing and composition are uncertain. Drawing on the evidence in Alesina and Ardagna (2010), we emphasize whether or not the fiscal consolidation is driven by tax rises or expenditure cuts. We find that the composition of the fiscal consolidation, its duration, the monetary policy stance, the level of government debt and expectations over the likelihood and composition of fiscal consolidations all matter in determining the extent to which a given consolidation is expansionary and/or successful in stabilizing government debt.government debt, budget reform, monetary-fiscal policy interactions

Strategies for a centralized single product multiclass M/G/1 make-to-stock queue

Make-to-stock queues are typically investigated in the M/M/1 settings. For centralized single-item systems with backlogs, the multilevel rationing (MR) policy is established as optimal and the strict priority (SP) policy is a practical compromise, balancing cost and ease of implementation. However, the optimal policy is unknown when service time is general, i.e., for M/G/1 queues. Dynamic programming, the tool commonly used to investigate the MR policy in make-to-stock queues, is less practical when service time is general. In this paper we focus on customer composition: the proportion of customers of each class to the total number of customers in the queue. We do so because the number of customers in M/G/1 queues is invariant for any nonidling and nonanticipating policy. To characterize customer composition, we consider a series of two-priority M/G/1 queues where the first service time in each busy period is different from standard service times, i.e., this first service time is exceptional. We characterize the required exceptional first service times and the exact solution of such queues. From our results, we derive the optimal cost and control for the MR and SP policies for M/G/1 make-to-stock queues

How Do Central Banks React to Wealth Composition and Asset Prices?

We assess the response of monetary policy to developments in asset markets in the Euro Area, the US and the UK. We estimate the reaction of monetary policy to wealth composition and asset prices using: (i) a linear framework based on a fully simultaneous system approach in a Bayesian environment; and (ii) a nonlinear specification that relies on a smooth transition regression model. The linear framework suggests that wealth composition is indeed important in the formulation of monetary policy. However, the attempts of central banks to mitigate undesirable fluctuations in say, financial wealth, may disrupt housing wealth. A similar result can be found when we assess the reaction of monetary authority to asset prices, although concerns about "price" effects are smaller. The nonlinear model confirms these findings. However, the concerns over wealth and its components are stronger once inflation is under control, i.e. below a certain target. Some disruptions between financial and housing wealth effects are still present. They can also be found in the reaction to asset prices, despite being less intense.monetary policy rules, wealth composition, asset prices.

The Expenditure Composition Hypothesis: Empirical Evidence and Implications for Monetary Policy.

Leão (2005) has recently proposed a new explanation for the short run variability of the velocity of money based on the changes in the composition of the expenditure that occur along the business cycle. This paper presents further empirical evidence in favour of Leão’s Expenditure Composition Hypothesis, and draws new implications of this hypothesis for monetary policy. We use a VAR model to analyze the determinants of the velocity of both M1 and M3 in the USA. The main conclusion is that increases in the weight of investment and durable consumption in total expenditure raise the velocity of both narrow and broad money. This is in line with the Expenditure Composition Hypothesis. Furthermore, we draw a new implication of this hypothesis for monetary policy. The more a central bank’s decisions on the interest rate respond to money growth, the more volatile economic growth will be. In other words, a monetary policy strategy - like that of the ECB – which puts emphasis on money growth is de-stabilizing.Velocity of money; monetary policy; business cycle.

PortFIR – An integrated data provider as support for the food policy-makers

Introduction: Portuguese Food Composition Table (TCA) is managed by the National Institute of Health Doutor Ricardo Jorge (INSA) and is publicly available on the Portuguese Food Information Resource (PortFIR) platform. PortFIR, besides food composition data, was designed to include data on food contamination and food consumption, in order to provide national data easily available in one platform. Objective:To compile and make widely available food-related data (food composition, food safety and food consumption), while providing science-based information, to support food policy-makers.info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio