Smart Sampling for Lightweight Verification of Markov Decision Processes

Markov decision processes (MDP) are useful to model optimisation problems in concurrent systems. To verify MDPs with efficient Monte Carlo techniques requires that their nondeterminism be resolved by a scheduler. Recent work has introduced the elements of lightweight techniques to sample directly from scheduler space, but finding optimal schedulers by simple sampling may be inefficient. Here we describe "smart" sampling algorithms that can make substantial improvements in performance.Comment: IEEE conference style, 11 pages, 5 algorithms, 11 figures, 1 tabl

Efficient generation of random derangements with the expected distribution of cycle lengths

We show how to generate random derangements efficiently by two different techniques: random restricted transpositions and sequential importance sampling. The algorithm employing restricted transpositions can also be used to generate random fixed-point-free involutions only, a.k.a. random perfect matchings on the complete graph. Our data indicate that the algorithms generate random samples with the expected distribution of cycle lengths, which we derive, and for relatively small samples, which can actually be very large in absolute numbers, we argue that they generate samples indistinguishable from the uniform distribution. Both algorithms are simple to understand and implement and possess a performance comparable to or better than those of currently known methods. Simulations suggest that the mixing time of the algorithm based on random restricted transpositions (in the total variance distance with respect to the distribution of cycle lengths) is $O(n^{a}\log{n}^{2})$ with $a \simeq \frac{1}{2}$ and $n$ the length of the derangement. We prove that the sequential importance sampling algorithm generates random derangements in $O(n)$ time with probability $O(1/n)$ of failing.Comment: This version corrected and updated; 14 pages, 2 algorithms, 2 tables, 4 figure

Generalizing Informed Sampling for Asymptotically Optimal Sampling-based Kinodynamic Planning via Markov Chain Monte Carlo

Asymptotically-optimal motion planners such as RRT* have been shown to incrementally approximate the shortest path between start and goal states. Once an initial solution is found, their performance can be dramatically improved by restricting subsequent samples to regions of the state space that can potentially improve the current solution. When the motion planning problem lies in a Euclidean space, this region $X_{inf}$, called the informed set, can be sampled directly. However, when planning with differential constraints in non-Euclidean state spaces, no analytic solutions exists to sampling $X_{inf}$ directly. State-of-the-art approaches to sampling $X_{inf}$ in such domains such as Hierarchical Rejection Sampling (HRS) may still be slow in high-dimensional state space. This may cause the planning algorithm to spend most of its time trying to produces samples in $X_{inf}$ rather than explore it. In this paper, we suggest an alternative approach to produce samples in the informed set $X_{inf}$ for a wide range of settings. Our main insight is to recast this problem as one of sampling uniformly within the sub-level-set of an implicit non-convex function. This recasting enables us to apply Monte Carlo sampling methods, used very effectively in the Machine Learning and Optimization communities, to solve our problem. We show for a wide range of scenarios that using our sampler can accelerate the convergence rate to high-quality solutions in high-dimensional problems

Higher order scrambled digital nets achieve the optimal rate of the root mean square error for smooth integrands

We study a random sampling technique to approximate integrals $\int_{[0,1]^s}f(\mathbf{x})\,\mathrm{d}\mathbf{x}$ by averaging the function at some sampling points. We focus on cases where the integrand is smooth, which is a problem which occurs in statistics. The convergence rate of the approximation error depends on the smoothness of the function $f$ and the sampling technique. For instance, Monte Carlo (MC) sampling yields a convergence of the root mean square error (RMSE) of order $N^{-1/2}$ (where $N$ is the number of samples) for functions $f$ with finite variance. Randomized QMC (RQMC), a combination of MC and quasi-Monte Carlo (QMC), achieves a RMSE of order $N^{-3/2+\varepsilon}$ under the stronger assumption that the integrand has bounded variation. A combination of RQMC with local antithetic sampling achieves a convergence of the RMSE of order $N^{-3/2-1/s+\varepsilon}$ (where $s\ge1$ is the dimension) for functions with mixed partial derivatives up to order two. Additional smoothness of the integrand does not improve the rate of convergence of these algorithms in general. On the other hand, it is known that without additional smoothness of the integrand it is not possible to improve the convergence rate. This paper introduces a new RQMC algorithm, for which we prove that it achieves a convergence of the root mean square error (RMSE) of order $N^{-\alpha-1/2+\varepsilon}$ provided the integrand satisfies the strong assumption that it has square integrable partial mixed derivatives up to order $\alpha>1$ in each variable. Known lower bounds on the RMSE show that this rate of convergence cannot be improved in general for integrands with this smoothness. We provide numerical examples for which the RMSE converges approximately with order $N^{-5/2}$ and $N^{-7/2}$, in accordance with the theoretical upper bound.Comment: Published in at http://dx.doi.org/10.1214/11-AOS880 the Annals of Statistics (http://www.imstat.org/aos/) by the Institute of Mathematical Statistics (http://www.imstat.org

The Devil is in the Tails: Fine-grained Classification in the Wild

The world is long-tailed. What does this mean for computer vision and visual recognition? The main two implications are (1) the number of categories we need to consider in applications can be very large, and (2) the number of training examples for most categories can be very small. Current visual recognition algorithms have achieved excellent classification accuracy. However, they require many training examples to reach peak performance, which suggests that long-tailed distributions will not be dealt with well. We analyze this question in the context of eBird, a large fine-grained classification dataset, and a state-of-the-art deep network classification algorithm. We find that (a) peak classification performance on well-represented categories is excellent, (b) given enough data, classification performance suffers only minimally from an increase in the number of classes, (c) classification performance decays precipitously as the number of training examples decreases, (d) surprisingly, transfer learning is virtually absent in current methods. Our findings suggest that our community should come to grips with the question of long tails