Climate Change, Markets, and Technology

Environmental Economics and Policy, Resource /Energy Economics and Policy, Q15, Q25, Q38,

INTEGRATED ECONOMIC-HYDROLOGIC ANALYSIS OF POLICY RESPONSES TO PROMOTE SUSTAINABLE WATER USE UNDER CHANGING CLIMATIC CONDITIONS

Resource /Energy Economics and Policy,

Economic risk assessment of drought impacts on irrigated agriculture

[EN] In this paper, we present an innovative framework for an economic risk analysis of drought impacts on irrigated agriculture. It consists on the integration of three components: stochastic time series modelling for prediction of inflows and future reservoir storages at the beginning of the irrigation season; statistical regression for the evaluation of water deliveries based on projected inflows and storages; and econometric modelling for economic assessment of the production value of agriculture based on irrigation water deliveries and crop prices. Therefore, the effect of the price volatility can be isolated from the losses due to water scarcity in the assessment of the drought impacts. Monte Carlo simulations are applied to generate probability functions of inflows, which are translated into probabilities of storages, deliveries, and finally, production value of agriculture. The framework also allows the assessment of the value of mitigation measures as reduction of economic losses during droughts. The approach was applied to the Jucar river basin, a complex system affected by multiannual severe droughts, with irrigated agriculture as the main consumptive demand. Probability distributions of deliveries and production value were obtained for each irrigation season. In the majority of the irrigation districts, drought causes a significant economic impact. The increase of crop prices can partially offset the losses from the reduction of production due to water scarcity in some districts. Emergency wells contribute to mitigating the droughts' impacts on the Jucar river system. (C) 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.This study has been supported by the IMPADAPT project (CGL2013-48424-C2-1-R) with Spanish MINECO (Ministerio de Economia y Competitividad) and European FEDER funds; the European Union's Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under the IMPREX project (GA 641.811) and the FP7 project ENHANCE (FP7, 308438).Lopez-Nicolas, A.; Pulido-Velazquez, M.; Macian-Sorribes, H. (2017). Economic risk assessment of drought impacts on irrigated agriculture. Journal of Hydrology. 550:580-589. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2017.05.004S58058955

Disruptive and Conventional Technologies for the Support of Logistics Processes: A Literature Review

The supply chain has become a key element of increasing the productivity and competitiveness of companies. To achieve this, it is essential to implement a strategy based on the use of technologies, which depends on knowledge of the scope and impact of logistics technologies. Therefore, this article aims to identify the main technologies supporting logistics management and supply chain processes to establish their functionality, scope, and impacts. For this, conventional technologies and technologies framed by the concept of Industry 4.0 that allow the implementation of Logistics 4.0 in companies are analyzed. As a result of searching databases such as Scopus, Web of Science, and Science Direct, we provide an analysis of 18 technologies focusing on their definition, scope, and the logistics processes involved. This study concludes that technologies in logistics management allow for a reduction in total costs, improve collaboration with suppliers and customers, increase the visibility and traceability of products and information, and support decision-making for all agents in the supply chain, including the final consumer

Climate Change and Water Supply Adaptation in California 2050

The cost and ability of California’s water supply system to adapt to major changes in climate are assessed using the CALVIN economic-engineering model. A dry climate warming GCM scenario is used to create statewide hydrologic changes, which are combined with 2050 water demands in the model. Results indicate that dry climate warming could have significant economic effects on California’s water supply, particularly for some agricultural areas. However, a portfolio of water management adaptations allows the magnitude of these economic impacts to be small compared with the overall state economy

Diseño metodológico de un sistema de medición del desempeño para la cadena de suministros de astilleros en Colombia

The design of a performance measurement system for the Colombian shipyard supply chain is shown in this paper, using a model that integrates the principles of the Balanced Scorecard with the fuzzy sets theory to treat uncertainty associated with selected logistics indicators, enabling better supply chain management.El presente artículo muestra el diseño de un sistema de medición del desempeño para la cadena de suministros de los astilleros colombianos, usando un modelo que integra los principios del Balanced Scorecard con la teoría de conjuntos difusos para el tratamiento de la incertidumbre asociada a los indicadores logísticos seleccionados, posibilitando mejor gestión de dicha cadena

Developing a water-energy-GHG emissions modeling framework: Insights from an application to California's water system

[EN] Integrating processes of water and energy interdependence in water systems can improve the understanding of the tradeoffs between water and energy in management and policy. This study presents a development of an integrated water resources management model that includes water-related energy use and GHG emissions. We apply the model to a simplified representation of California's water system. Accounting for water demands from cities, agriculture, environment and the energy sector, and combining a surface water management model with a simple groundwater model, the model optimizes water use across sectors during shortages from an economic perspective, calculating the associated energy use and electricity generation for each water demand. The results of California's water system show that urban end-uses account for most GHG emissions of the entire water cycle, but large water conveyance produces significant peaks over the summer season. Different policy scenarios show the significant tradeoffs between water, energy, and GHG emissions.Escrivà Bou, À.; Lund, J.; Pulido-Velazquez, M.; Hui, R.; Medellín-Azuara, J. (2018). Developing a water-energy-GHG emissions modeling framework: Insights from an application to California's water system. Environmental Modelling & Software. 109:54-65. doi:10.1016/j.envsoft.2018.07.011S546510

Groundwater Banking in Imperial Irrigation District: Planning for Future Water Scarcity on the Colorado River

Urban and rural economies throughout the southwestern United States and Mexico rely on surface water imported from the Colorado River. The Imperial Irrigation District (herein IID or District) has rights to use 3.1 million acre-feet (MAF) per year of Colorado River Water (Regional Water Management Group 2013 and Imperial Irrigation District 2009). Of this water entitlement, IID uses 97 percent for agricultural production. In addition, IID supplies water to San Diego and Los Angeles urban areas. The population reliant on Colorado River water is expected to rise from approximately 40 million people today, up to 76 million people over the next 50 years (Bureau of Reclamation 2012). Growth is anticipated both in urban areas including San Diego and Los Angeles, and within the area served directly by IID. Within IID, while demand for agricultural production is expected to remain constant, demand for water by municipal, commercial and industrial users is expected to increase (Regional Water Management Group 2013 and Imperial Irrigation District 2009). IID maintains senior water entitlements for roughly 20 percent of the Colorado River flows. The rights were established almost a century ago, before populations grew significantly throughout the southwestern United States, and during decades when flows on the river were higher than historic averages (Reisner 1986). Moreover, models based on paleo data, and climate change models have predicted a decline in water flows on the Colorado River. Many climate change scenarios predict long-term droughts with deficits of up to 60 MAF (US Bureau of Reclamation 2012). Over the past decades, court battles over water rights to the Colorado River have ensued. In addition, environmental policy has influenced controls of river flows to support ecosystems beneficially, in addition to providing water to support human populations. Given that IID utilizes a significant portion of its Colorado River entitlement for agricultural production, there is political and legal pressure for it to reduce its use in order to provide more water to support urban populations and ecosystems. As part of the Quantification Settlement Agreement (2003) for reducing reliance on Colorado River, the IID is required to transfer water to urban areas and for ecosystem restoration. The laws that allocate the Colorado River will be described in the Background of this report. As recent policies require more water to be allocated for urban and ecosystem uses, the amount of agricultural production within the IID is not expected to decrease. IID relies almost entirely on Colorado River imports to support agricultural production, and does not have alternative water supplies. In the face of a potential reduction in river supplies, and an increase in demand for water, IID is exploring options to improve reliability of its water supply. One of the options is storing Colorado River water for future use. The IID Integrative Water Management Plan (2012) has identified a goal to diversify its regional water supply portfolio by developing groundwater storage and banking of Colorado River water. Specifically, IID intends to develop the capability to store any surplus water to which it is entitled (within its 3.1 MAF) in groundwater storage banks for later use. For any given year in which IID diverts less water than it is allocated, the unused surplus water is called an “underrun”. In this report, I evaluate the question: Is the Imperial Irrigation District’s project to store “underruns” from their Colorado River entitlement economically and environmentally sustainable? How should their goals for water security be weighed against economic and environmental impacts? The development of groundwater banking projects in conjunction with increasing diversions of water from the Colorado River raises questions about economic and environmental sustainability. The definition and feasibility for groundwater banking projects in the IID are described in the Background section of this report. As described, groundwater banking within the IID region would require upfront costs for construction, and long-term costs associated with energy consumption, operation and maintenance. Furthermore the groundwater is typically salty and would require desalinization in order for it to be used beneficially. Impacts to ecosystems may also occur if more water is diverted from the Colorado River. The IID Integrative Water Management Plan also includes strategies for reducing overall water demands within the district. One of the key strategies is programs that pay farmers to not use water through field fallowing, or by improving efficient irrigation practices. There are economic and environmental sustainability issues associated with these programs, too. For instance, the Salton Sea relies almost entirely on agricultural runoff to sustain its water levels. As described in the Methodology section, this report compares groundwater banking projects that involve Colorado River inputs against alternative strategies that reduce demands. The methodology for evaluating impacts relies on the “soft path” approach for water policy decisions. This approach encourages water managers to first consider demand reductions before increasing water supply infrastructure. The methodology highlights key factors for IID to consider for evaluating groundwater banking projects to meet water security objectives. The Results and Discussion section includes a description of how groundwater banking projects measure against alternatives in terms of economic and environmental sustainability factors. The analysis includes a cost comparison of groundwater banking projects for IID, in comparison to the strategies implemented if no groundwater banks are implemented. The environmental sustainability factors are discussed qualitatively, and from the perspective of identifying potential ecological resource impacts that IID should consider. The section also includes an analysis for how these strategies meet water security objectives. Based on the analysis of economic factors, environmental sustainability factors and the ability to meet future water security needs, the analysis provides results for IID’s policy makers to consider when evaluating groundwater banking projects in the future

An Economic-Engineering Optimization for the Binational Mexico-U.S. Lower Colorado River Delta: the Mexicali Valley Case Study

Agricultural water use in the binational Lower Colorado River Basin is about ninety percent of all the beneficial use. Fast growing border cities of Baja California and conservation uses will increase their water allocations in the near future. The CALVIN economic-engineering model was used to evaluate the benefits and costs of a variety of water management strategies in the Lower Colorado River Delta in Mexico. Results show that at 2025 water demand conditions, agriculture seems to be the most suitable donor of water to other sectors. Wastewater reuse for irrigation and/or conservation purposes may reduce dependence on agricultural water imports to fulfill future demands