Object oriented design and implementation of a probabilistic inference system

Probabilistic inference in belief networks provides an effective way of reasoning under uncertainty. Efficiency is critical in applying this technique and many algorithms have been developed by many researchers. This is to report the object oriented design and implementation in C++ of such a probabilistic inference system using efficient algorithms

Estimating the family bias to autism: a bayesian approach

Autism is an age- and sex-related lifelong neurodevelopmental condition characterized pri marily by persistent deficits in core domains such as social communication. It is estimated that ≈ 2% of children have some ASD trait. The autism etiology is mainly due to inherited genetic factors (>80%). The importance of early diagnosis and interventions motivated several studies involving groups at high risk for ASD, those with a greater predisposition to the disorder. Such studies are characterized by evaluating some characteristics of the individual itself or the family members of diagnosed individuals, mainly aiming to predict a future diagnosis or recurrence rates. One of the primary goals of Artificial Intelligence is to create artificial agents capable of intelligent behaviors, such as prediction problems. Prediction problems usually involve reasoning with uncertainty due to some information deficiency, in which the data may be imprecise or incorrect. Such solutions may seek the application of probabilistic methods to construct inference models. In this thesis, we will discuss the development of probabilistic networks capable of estimating the risk of autism among the family members given some evidence (e.g., other family members with ASD). In particular, the main novel contributions of this thesis are as follows: the proposal of some estimates regarding parents with ASD generating children with ASD; the highlight ing regarding the decrease in the ASD prevalence sex ratio among males and females when genetic factors are taken into account; the corroboration and quantification of past evidence that the clustering of ASD in families is primarily due to genetic factors; the computation of some estimates regarding the risk of ASD for parents, grandparents, and siblings; an estimate regarding the number of ASD cases in a family sufficient to attribute the ASD occurrences to the genetic inheritance; the assessment of some estimates for males and females individuals given evidence in grandparents, aunts-or-uncles, nieces-or nephews and cousins; and the proposition of some estimates indicating risk ranges for ASD by genetic similarity

Risk Assessment and Management of Petroleum Transportation Systems Operations

Petroleum Transportation Systems (PTSs) have a significant impact on the flow of crude oil within a Petroleum Supply Chain (PSC), due to the great demand on this natural product. Such systems are used for safe movement of crude and/or refined products from starting points (i.e. production sites or storage tanks), to their final destinations, via land or sea transportation. PTSs are vulnerable to several risks because they often operate in a dynamic environment. Due to this environment, many potential risks and uncertainties are involved. Not only having a direct effect on the product flow within PSC, PTSs accidents could also have severe consequences for the humans, businesses, and the environment. Therefore, safe operations of the key systems such as port, ship and pipeline, are vital for the success of PTSs. This research introduces an advanced approach to ensure safety of PTSs. This research proposes multiple network analysis, risk assessment, uncertainties treatment and decision making techniques for dealing with potential hazards and operational issues that are happening within the marine ports, ships, or pipeline transportation segments within one complete system. The main phases of the developed framework are formulated in six steps. In the first phase of the research, the hazards in PTSs operations that can lead to a crude oil spill are identified through conducting an extensive review of literature and experts’ knowledge. In the second phase, a Fuzzy Rule-Based Bayesian Reasoning (FRBBR) and Hugin software are applied in the new context of PTSs to assess and prioritise the local PTSs failures as one complete system. The third phase uses Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) in order to determine the weight of PTSs local factors. In the fourth phase, network analysis approach is used to measure the importance of petroleum ports, ships and pipelines systems globally within Petroleum Transportation Networks (PTNs). This approach can help decision makers to measure and detect the critical nodes (ports and transportation routes) within PTNs. The fifth phase uses an Evidential Reasoning (ER) approach and Intelligence Decision System (IDS) software, to assess hazards influencing on PTSs as one complete system. This research developed an advance risk-based framework applied ER approach due to its ability to combine the local/internal and global/external risk analysis results of the PTSs. To complete the cycle of this study, the best mitigating strategies are introduced and evaluated by incorporating VIseKriterijumska Optimizacija I Kompromisno Resenje (VIKOR) and AHP to rank the risk control options. The novelty of this framework provides decision makers with realistic and flexible results to ensure efficient and safe operations for PTSs