Forecasting obsolescence risk and product lifecycle with machine learning

Rapid changes in technology have led to an increasingly fast pace of product introductions. New components offering added functionality, improved performance and quality are routinely available to a growing number of industry sectors (e.g., electronics, automotive, and defense industries). For long-life systems such as planes, ships, nuclear power plants, and more, these rapid changes help sustain the useful life, but at the same time, present significant challenges associated with managing change. Obsolescence of components and/or subsystems can be technical, functional, related to style, etc., and occur in nearly any industry. Over the years, many approaches for forecasting obsolescence have been developed. Inputs to such methods have been based on manual inputs and best estimates from product planners, or have been based on market analysis of parts, components, or assemblies that have been identified as higher risk for obsolescence on bill of materials. Gathering inputs required for forecasting is often subjective and laborious, causing inconsistencies in predictions. To address this issue, the objective of this research is to develop a new framework and methodology capable of identifying and forecasting obsolescence with a high degree of accuracy while minimizing maintenance and upkeep. To accomplish this objective, current obsolescence forecasting methods were categorized by output type and assessed in terms of pros and cons. A machine learning methodology capable of predicting obsolescence risk level and estimating the date of obsolescence was developed. The machine learning methodology is used to classify parts as active (in production) or obsolete (discontinued) and can be used during the design stage to guide part selection. Estimates of the date parts will cease production can be used to more efficiently time redesigns of multiple obsolete parts from a product or system. A case study of the cell phone market is presented to demonstrate how the methodology can forecast product obsolescence with a high degree of accuracy. For example, results of obsolescence forecasting in the case study predict parts as active or obsolete with a 98.3% accuracy and regularly predicts obsolescence dates within a few months

Identifying the impact of the circular economy on the Fast-Moving Consumer Goods Industry Opportunities and challenges for businesses, workers and consumers – mobile phones as an example STUDY

Mobile phones, particularly smartphones, have undergone a period of rapid growth to become virtually indispensable to today's lifestyle. Yet their production, use and disposal can entail a significant environmental burden. This study looks at the opportunities and challenges that arise from implementing circular economy approaches in the mobile phone value chain. A review of the value chain and different circular approaches is complemented by a scenario analysis that aims to quantify the potential impacts of certain circular approaches such as recycling, refurbishment and lifetime extension. The study finds that there is a large untapped potential for recovering materials from both the annual flow of new mobile phones sold in Europe once they reach the end of their life and the accumulated stock of unused, so-called hibernating devices in EU households. Achieving high recycling rates for these devices can offer opportunities to reduce EU dependence on imported materials and make secondary raw materials available on the EU market. As such, policy action would be required to close the collection gap for mobile phone devices. Implementing circular approaches in the mobile phone value chain can furthermore lead to job creation in the refurbishment sector. Extending the lifetime of mobile phones can also provide CO2 mitigation benefits, particularly from displacing the production of new devices

Continuous maintenance and the future – Foundations and technological challenges

High value and long life products require continuous maintenance throughout their life cycle to achieve required performance with optimum through-life cost. This paper presents foundations and technologies required to offer the maintenance service. Component and system level degradation science, assessment and modelling along with life cycle ‘big data’ analytics are the two most important knowledge and skill base required for the continuous maintenance. Advanced computing and visualisation technologies will improve efficiency of the maintenance and reduce through-life cost of the product. Future of continuous maintenance within the Industry 4.0 context also identifies the role of IoT, standards and cyber security

A landscape of repair

This paper reports on EPSRC-funded research that explores the role of repair in creating new models of sustainable business. In the lifecycle stage of repair we explore what 'broken' means and uncover the nature of local and dispersed repair activities. This in turn allows us to better understand how the relationship between products and people can help shape new modes of consumption. Therefore, narratives of repair are collected to identify diverse people-product interactions and illustrate the different characteristics of, and motivations for, repair. The paper proposes that mapping the different product-people interactions across the product lifecycle, particularly at the stage of fragile-functionality (performance or function failure, emotional disengagement, superseded technology) is important in understanding the potential for enduring products and their repair. Building a landscape of repair creates new opportunities for manufacture and for slowing resource loops across product lifetimes, which together provide a framework for a sufficiency-based model of production and consumption

Consuming the million-mile electric car

Unlike for many consumer products, there has been no strong environmental case for extending the life of internal combustion engine cars as the majority of their environmental impact is fuel consumed in use and not the energy and materials involved in manufacturing. Indeed, with improving fuel efficiency, product life extension is environmentally undesirable; older, less fuel-efficient cars need to be replaced by newer more fuel-efficient models. Electric vehicles (EVs) are predominantly considered environmentally beneficial by using an increasingly decarbonised fuel – electricity. However, LCA analyses show that EVs have substantial environmental impacts in their materials, manufacturing and disposal. The high ‘embedded’ environmental impacts of EVs fundamentally change the case for product life extension. Thus, product life extension is desirable for EVs and they are suited to it. While petrol and diesel cars have an average lifetime mileage of 124,000 miles (200,000 Kilometres), the case for the million-mile (1.6 million Kilometre) electric car appears strong. Although it may be technically possible to produce a million-mile EV, how will such vehicles be consumed given that the car consumption is complex, involving, for example, extracting use and symbolic value? In this contribution we explore the nature of the relationship between cars and the consumer that moves beyond technical and functional value to understand what form of access consumers require to an EV across its entire 50-year life. If such consumption aspects are overlooked then, even if the million-mile car is technically viable, it is unlikely to be adopted and the environmental benefits they may yield will be lost.Peer reviewedFinal Accepted Versio

Comprehensive Right to Repair: The Fight Against Planned Obsolescence in Canada

The comprehensive right to repair—one that addresses overconsumption and enables a circular economy—is an integral part of climate change policy in Canada. Where it is traditionally approached from an economic perspective, this article presents the right to repair as an instrument of environmental law. This reframing looks to France’s Anti-Waste and Circular Economy Law for structural and substantive elements of such legislation. Further, this article examines previous attempts to legislate the right to repair in Canada and explores how an overarching environmental purpose aids in overcoming political and jurisdictional barriers to its implementation. Ultimately, this article advocates for realization of a comprehensive right to repair through the updating of multiple pieces of existing federal legislation

Remanufacturing and product design: designing for the 7th generation

The following is taken directly from the research report. This report investigates Design for Remanufacture in terms of both detailed product design and the business context in which Design for Remanufacture may operate. Key Study Objectives • To understand the link between design and remanufacture • To understand how Design for Remanufacture can lead to increased innovation and Sustainable Development (SD) • To identify proactive strategies to further Design for Remanufactur

Overcoming premature smartphone obsolescence amongst young adults

Rapid smartphone replacement contributes significantly to electronic waste issues. This paper investigates determinants of premature smartphone obsolescence amongst young adults and proposes psychology-based solutions to reduce associated sustainability impacts. Activity Theory maps replacement journeys to focus interventions on problem recognition. Grounded in contemporary Installation Theory, obsolescence drivers are analysed across physical affordances, embodied competencies and social regulations. Smartphone replacement journeys are mapped through Activity Theory to focus on problem recognition as an intervention point. Expert interviews and a user survey supplement literature in investigating obsolescence factors. Solutions are then structured along Installation Theory dimensions for a systemic approach targeting underlying barriers. Solutions address the three layers of behavioural determination. Smartphone modularity addresses physical issues, like repairability and upgrade. Consumer education campaigns improve competencies and perceptions, hereby fostering longer use. A “Slow Smartphone Movement” is proposed, leveraging social strategies, including pledges and online communities, to redefine cultural obsolescence narratives and address the positional aspects of having the latest generation smartphone. Together these multilayered interventions provide actionable pathways to prolonging lifespan by fundamentally reshaping psychological ownership patterns underlying premature smartphone disposal. Rather than isolated initiatives, these synergistic solutions provide specific, evidence-based pathways to fundamentally transforming entrenched obsolescence mindsets and behaviours amongst younger demographics. The paper concludes by outlining study limitations and stating that future research must empirically evaluate the proposed solutions. The current paper investigates the determinants and consequences of premature smartphone obsolescence amongst young adults and proposes psychology-based solutions to reduce its detrimental environmental and societal impact. Activity Theory was used to define the research scope, ultimately focusing on the first stage in the buyer behaviour model, reflecting a prototypical customer journey along five consecutive decision stages. Problem recognition, essentially the perceived difference between the current and desired state of being, was subsequently analysed through the three interrelated layers of Installation Theory, physical affordances, embodied competencies, and social regulations. Eventually, potential solutions, grounded in academic literature, expert interviews, and a consumer survey, were organised along the three dimensions of installation theory, creating a holistic and effective strategy for tackling smartphone obsolescence. Smartphone modularity represents a promising starting point to address the problems associated with physical affordances, such as broken parts, worn batteries, and planned obsolescence more generally. Additionally, extensive consumer education coupled with awareness campaigns highlighting the alternatives to purchasing new products and awareness campaigns highlighting the alternatives to purchasing new products could tackle issues associated with embodied competencies. Lastly, social regulations manifested partly in the universal need for belonging and social inclusion, represent the last driver of smartphone obsolescence. Virtual communities and reward schemes could further foster lasting normative change, eventually helping redefine the detrimental consumerism culture

Lifetime extension of mobile internet-enabled devices: measures, challenges and environmental implications

Increasing the service lifetime of mobile Internet-enabled devices (MIEDs) such as smartphones, tablets and laptops is a promising strategy to reduce the number of devices that need to be produced and reduce environmental impacts associated with device production. A broad spectrum of lifetime-extending measures has been explored in literature and in industry practice. In this article, we present an overview of explored measures, discuss challenges in their implementation and environmental impacts of lifetime extension. We find that measures can be distinguished into measures aiming at (1) the improvement of the device design (e.g. modular or durable design of smartphones), (2) device retention (increasing the time a user keeps a device, e.g. by offering repair services or fostering emotional attachment to devices), and (3) recirculation (creating a second life with a different user and/or in a different context, e.g. by refurbishing and reselling devices). The implementation of measures is challenged by trade-offs faced by organizations in the MIED value chain, which specifically occur when revenues depend on the number of new devices produced and sold. Furthermore, measures are subject to rebound and induction effects (e.g. imperfect substitution, re-spending effects), which can compensate for the (theoretical) environmental gains from service lifetime extension. In particular, it is uncertain to what extent a measure actually leads to lifetime extension and eventually reduces primary production of devices (displacement rate). Thus, more systematic research is needed on the feasibility of measures and the conditions under which they effectively contribute to a net reduction of environmental impacts