Developing a Local Neurofuzzy Model for Short-Term Wind Power Forecasting

Large scale integration of wind generation capacity into power systems introduces operational challenges due to wind power uncertainty and variability. Therefore, accurate wind power forecast is important for reliable and economic operation of the power systems. Complexities and nonlinearities exhibited by wind power time series necessitate use of elaborative and sophisticated approaches for wind power forecasting. In this paper, a local neurofuzzy (LNF) approach, trained by the polynomial model tree (POLYMOT) learning algorithm, is proposed for short-term wind power forecasting. The LNF approach is constructed based on the contribution of local polynomial models which can efficiently model wind power generation. Data from Sotavento wind farm in Spain was used to validate the proposed LNF approach. Comparison between performance of the proposed approach and several recently published approaches illustrates capability of the LNF model for accurate wind power forecasting

Optimization of adaptive test design methods for the determination of steady-state data-driven models in terms of combustion engine calibration

This thesis deals with the development of a model-based adaptive test design strategy with a focus on steady-state combustion engine calibration. The first research topic investigates the question how to handle limits in the input domain during an adaptive test design procedure. The second area of scope aims at identifying the test design method providing the best model quality improvement in terms of overall model prediction error. To consider restricted areas in the input domain, a convex hull-based solution involving a convex cone algorithm is developed, the outcome of which serves as a boundary model for a test point search. A solution is derived to enable the application of the boundary model to high-dimensional problems without calculating the exact convex hull and cones. Furthermore, different data-driven engine modeling methods are compared, resulting in the Gaussian process model as the most suitable one for a model-based calibration. To determine an appropriate test design method for a Gaussian process model application, two new strategies are developed and compared to state-of-the-art methods. A simulation-based study shows the most benefit applying a modified mutual information test design, followed by a newly developed relevance-based test design with less computational effort. The boundary model and the relevance-based test design are integrated into a multicriterial test design strategy that is tailored to match the requirements of combustion engine test bench measurements. A simulation-based study with seven and nine input parameters and four outputs each offered an average model quality improvement of 36 % and an average measured input area volume increase of 65 % compared to a non-adaptive space-filling test design. The multicriterial test design was applied to a test bench measurement with seven inputs for verification. Compared to a space-filling test design measurement, the improvement could be confirmed with an average model quality increase of 17 % over eight outputs and a 34 % larger measured input area

Optimization of adaptive test design methods for the determination of steady-state data-driven models in terms of combustion engine calibration

This thesis deals with the development of a model-based adaptive test design strategy with a focus on steady-state combustion engine calibration. The first research topic investigates the question how to handle limits in the input domain during an adaptive test design procedure. The second area of scope aims at identifying the test design method providing the best model quality improvement in terms of overall model prediction error. To consider restricted areas in the input domain, a convex hull-based solution involving a convex cone algorithm is developed, the outcome of which serves as a boundary model for a test point search. A solution is derived to enable the application of the boundary model to high-dimensional problems without calculating the exact convex hull and cones. Furthermore, different data-driven engine modeling methods are compared, resulting in the Gaussian process model as the most suitable one for a model-based calibration. To determine an appropriate test design method for a Gaussian process model application, two new strategies are developed and compared to state-of-the-art methods. A simulation-based study shows the most benefit applying a modified mutual information test design, followed by a newly developed relevance-based test design with less computational effort. The boundary model and the relevance-based test design are integrated into a multicriterial test design strategy that is tailored to match the requirements of combustion engine test bench measurements. A simulation-based study with seven and nine input parameters and four outputs each offered an average model quality improvement of 36 % and an average measured input area volume increase of 65 % compared to a non-adaptive space-filling test design. The multicriterial test design was applied to a test bench measurement with seven inputs for verification. Compared to a space-filling test design measurement, the improvement could be confirmed with an average model quality increase of 17 % over eight outputs and a 34 % larger measured input area

Longitudinal clustering analysis and prediction of Parkinson\u27s disease progression using radiomics and hybrid machine learning

Background: We employed machine learning approaches to (I) determine distinct progression trajectories in Parkinson\u27s disease (PD) (unsupervised clustering task), and (II) predict progression trajectories (supervised prediction task), from early (years 0 and 1) data, making use of clinical and imaging features. Methods: We studied PD-subjects derived from longitudinal datasets (years 0, 1, 2 & 4; Parkinson\u27s Progressive Marker Initiative). We extracted and analyzed 981 features, including motor, non-motor, and radiomics features extracted for each region-of-interest (ROIs: left/right caudate and putamen) using our standardized standardized environment for radiomics analysis (SERA) radiomics software. Segmentation of ROIs on dopamine transposer - single photon emission computed tomography (DAT SPECT) images were performed via magnetic resonance images (MRI). After performing cross-sectional clustering on 885 subjects (original dataset) to identify disease subtypes, we identified optimal longitudinal trajectories using hybrid machine learning systems (HMLS), including principal component analysis (PCA) + K-Means algorithms (KMA) followed by Bayesian information criterion (BIC), Calinski-Harabatz criterion (CHC), and elbow criterion (EC). Subsequently, prediction of the identified trajectories from early year data was performed using multiple HMLSs including 16 Dimension Reduction Algorithms (DRA) and 10 classification algorithms. Results: We identified 3 distinct progression trajectories. Hotelling\u27s t squared test (HTST) showed that the identified trajectories were distinct. The trajectories included those with (I, II) disease escalation (2 trajectories, 27% and 38% of patients) and (III) stable disease (1 trajectory, 35% of patients). For trajectory prediction from early year data, HMLSs including the stochastic neighbor embedding algorithm (SNEA, as a DRA) as well as locally linear embedding algorithm (LLEA, as a DRA), linked with the new probabilistic neural network classifier (NPNNC, as a classifier), resulted in accuracies of 78.4% and 79.2% respectively, while other HMLSs such as SNEA + Lib_SVM (library for support vector machines) and t_SNE (t-distributed stochastic neighbor embedding) + NPNNC resulted in 76.5% and 76.1% respectively. Conclusions: This study moves beyond cross-sectional PD subtyping to clustering of longitudinal disease trajectories. We conclude that combining medical information with SPECT-based radiomics features, and optimal utilization of HMLSs, can identify distinct disease trajectories in PD patients, and enable effective prediction of disease trajectories from early year data

Proceedings. 25. Workshop Computational Intelligence, Dortmund, 26. - 27. November 2015

Dieser Tagungsband enthält die Beiträge des 25. Workshops „Computational Intelligence“ des Fachausschusses 5.14 der VDI/VDE-Gesellschaft für Mess- und Automatisierungstechnik (GMA) , der vom 26. – 27. November 2015 in Dortmund stattfindet

Proceedings - 30. Workshop Computational Intelligence : Berlin, 26. - 27. November 2020

Dieser Tagungsband enthält die Beiträge des 30. Workshops Computational Intelligence. Die Schwerpunkte sind Methoden, Anwendungen und Tools für Fuzzy-Systeme, Künstliche Neuronale Netze, Evolutionäre Algorithmen und Data-Mining-Verfahren sowie der Methodenvergleich anhand von industriellen und Benchmark-Problemen

Proceedings. 24. Workshop Computational Intelligence, Dortmund, 27. - 28. November 2014

Dieser Tagungsband enthält die Beiträge des 24. Workshops "Computational Intelligence" des Fachausschusses 5.14 der VDI/VDE-Gesellschaft für Mess- und Automatisierungstechnik (GMA), der vom 27. - 28. November 2014 in Dortmund stattgefunden hat. Die Schwerpunkte sind Methoden, Anwendungen und Tools für Fuzzy-Systeme, Künstliche Neuronale Netze, Evolutionäre Algorithmen und Data-Mining-Verfahren sowie der Methodenvergleich anhand von industriellen Anwendungen und Benchmark-Problemen