Confluence versus Ample Sets in Probabilistic Branching Time

To improve the efficiency of model checking in general, and probabilistic model checking in particular, several reduction techniques have been introduced. Two of these, confluence reduction and partial-order reduction by means of ample sets, are based on similar principles, and both preserve branching-time properties for probabilistic models. Confluence reduction has been introduced for probabilistic automata, whereas ample set reduction has been introduced for Markov decision processes. In this presentation we will explore the relationship between confluence and ample sets. To this end, we redefine confluence reduction to handle MDPs. We show that all non-trivial ample sets consist of confluent transitions, but that the converse is not true. We also show that the two notions coincide if the definition of confluence is restricted, and point out the relevant parts where the two theories differ. The results we present also hold for non-probabilistic models, as our theorems can just as well be applied in a context where all transitions are non-probabilistic. To show a practical application of our results, we adapt a state space generation technique based on representative states, already known in combination with confluence reduction, so that it can also be applied with partial-order reduction

Automatic Probabilistic Program Verification through Random Variable Abstraction

The weakest pre-expectation calculus has been proved to be a mature theory to analyze quantitative properties of probabilistic and nondeterministic programs. We present an automatic method for proving quantitative linear properties on any denumerable state space using iterative backwards fixed point calculation in the general framework of abstract interpretation. In order to accomplish this task we present the technique of random variable abstraction (RVA) and we also postulate a sufficient condition to achieve exact fixed point computation in the abstract domain. The feasibility of our approach is shown with two examples, one obtaining the expected running time of a probabilistic program, and the other the expected gain of a gambling strategy. Our method works on general guarded probabilistic and nondeterministic transition systems instead of plain pGCL programs, allowing us to easily model a wide range of systems including distributed ones and unstructured programs. We present the operational and weakest precondition semantics for this programs and prove its equivalence

Explicit Model Checking of Very Large MDP using Partitioning and Secondary Storage

The applicability of model checking is hindered by the state space explosion problem in combination with limited amounts of main memory. To extend its reach, the large available capacities of secondary storage such as hard disks can be exploited. Due to the specific performance characteristics of secondary storage technologies, specialised algorithms are required. In this paper, we present a technique to use secondary storage for probabilistic model checking of Markov decision processes. It combines state space exploration based on partitioning with a block-iterative variant of value iteration over the same partitions for the analysis of probabilistic reachability and expected-reward properties. A sparse matrix-like representation is used to store partitions on secondary storage in a compact format. All file accesses are sequential, and compression can be used without affecting runtime. The technique has been implemented within the Modest Toolset. We evaluate its performance on several benchmark models of up to 3.5 billion states. In the analysis of time-bounded properties on real-time models, our method neutralises the state space explosion induced by the time bound in its entirety.Comment: The final publication is available at Springer via http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-24953-7_1

Probabilistic Model-Based Safety Analysis

Model-based safety analysis approaches aim at finding critical failure combinations by analysis of models of the whole system (i.e. software, hardware, failure modes and environment). The advantage of these methods compared to traditional approaches is that the analysis of the whole system gives more precise results. Only few model-based approaches have been applied to answer quantitative questions in safety analysis, often limited to analysis of specific failure propagation models, limited types of failure modes or without system dynamics and behavior, as direct quantitative analysis is uses large amounts of computing resources. New achievements in the domain of (probabilistic) model-checking now allow for overcoming this problem. This paper shows how functional models based on synchronous parallel semantics, which can be used for system design, implementation and qualitative safety analysis, can be directly re-used for (model-based) quantitative safety analysis. Accurate modeling of different types of probabilistic failure occurrence is shown as well as accurate interpretation of the results of the analysis. This allows for reliable and expressive assessment of the safety of a system in early design stages

Confluence Reduction for Probabilistic Systems (extended version)

This paper presents a novel technique for state space reduction of probabilistic specifications, based on a newly developed notion of confluence for probabilistic automata. We prove that this reduction preserves branching probabilistic bisimulation and can be applied on-the-fly. To support the technique, we introduce a method for detecting confluent transitions in the context of a probabilistic process algebra with data, facilitated by an earlier defined linear format. A case study demonstrates that significant reductions can be obtained

On-the-fly Probabilistic Model Checking

Model checking approaches can be divided into two broad categories: global approaches that determine the set of all states in a model M that satisfy a temporal logic formula f, and local approaches in which, given a state s in M, the procedure determines whether s satisfies f. When s is a term of a process language, the model checking procedure can be executed "on-the-fly", driven by the syntactical structure of s. For certain classes of systems, e.g. those composed of many parallel components, the local approach is preferable because, depending on the specific property, it may be sufficient to generate and inspect only a relatively small part of the state space. We propose an efficient, on-the-fly, PCTL model checking procedure that is parametric with respect to the semantic interpretation of the language. The procedure comprises both bounded and unbounded until modalities. The correctness of the procedure is shown and its efficiency is compared with a global PCTL model checker on representative applications.Comment: In Proceedings ICE 2014, arXiv:1410.701

Confluence versus Ample Sets in Probabilistic Branching Time

To improve the efficiency of model checking in general, and probabilistic model checking in particular, several reduction techniques have been introduced. Two of these, confluence reduction and partial-order reduction by means of ample sets, are based on similar principles, and both preserve branching-time properties for probabilistic models. Confluence reduction has been introduced for probabilistic automata, whereas ample set reduction has been introduced for Markov decision processes. This paper explores the relationship between confluence and ample sets. To this end, we redefine confluence reduction to handle MDPs. We show that all non-trivial ample sets consist of confluent transitions, but that the converse is not true. We also show that the two notions coincide if the definition of confluence is restricted, and point out the relevant parts where the two theories differ. The results we present also hold for non-probabilistic models, as our theorems can just as well be applied in a context where all transitions are non-probabilistic. To show a practical application of our results, we adapt a state space generation technique based on representative states, already known in combination with confluence reduction, so that it can also be applied with partial-order reduction

Approximation Techniques for Stochastic Analysis of Biological Systems

There has been an increasing demand for formal methods in the design process of safety-critical synthetic genetic circuits. Probabilistic model checking techniques have demonstrated significant potential in analyzing the intrinsic probabilistic behaviors of complex genetic circuit designs. However, its inability to scale limits its applicability in practice. This chapter addresses the scalability problem by presenting a state-space approximation method to remove unlikely states resulting in a reduced, finite state representation of the infinite-state continuous-time Markov chain that is amenable to probabilistic model checking. The proposed method is evaluated on a design of a genetic toggle switch. Comparisons with another state-of-art tool demonstrates both accuracy and efficiency of the presented method

Probabilistic Verification at Runtime for Self-Adaptive Systems

An effective design of effective and efficient self-adaptive systems may rely on several existing approaches. Software models and model checking techniques at run time represent one of them since they support automatic reasoning about such changes, detect harmful configurations, and potentially enable appropriate (self-)reactions. However, traditional model checking techniques and tools may not be applied as they are at run time, since they hardly meet the constraints imposed by on-the-fly analysis, in terms of execution time and memory occupation. For this reason, efficient run-time model checking represents a crucial research challenge. This paper precisely addresses this issue and focuses on probabilistic run-time model checking in which reliability models are given in terms of Discrete Time Markov Chains which are verified at run-time against a set of requirements expressed as logical formulae. In particular, the paper discusses the use of probabilistic model checking at run-time for self-adaptive systems by surveying and comparing the existing approaches divided in two categories: state-elimination algorithms and algebra-based algorithms. The discussion is supported by a realistic example and by empirical experiments