Estimation in Threshold Autoregressive Models with Nonstationarity

This paper proposes a class of new nonlinear threshold autoregressive models with both stationary and nonstationary regimes. Existing literature basically focuses on testing for a unit–root structure in a threshold autoregressive model. Under the null hypothesis, the model reduces to a simple random walk. Parameter estimation then becomes standard under the null hypothesis. How to estimate parameters involved in an alternative nonstationary model, when the null hypothesis is not true, becomes a nonstandard estimation problem. This is mainly because models under such an alternative are normally null recurrent Markov chains. This paper thus proposes to establish a parameter estimation method for such nonlinear threshold autoregressive models with null recurrent structure. Under certain assumptions, we show that the ordinary least squares (OLS) estimates of the parameters involved are asymptotically consistent. Furthermore, it can be shown that the OLS estimator of the coefficient parameter involved in the stationary regime can still be asymptotically normal while the OLS estimator of the coefficient parameter involved in the nonstationary regime has a nonstandard asymptotic distribution. In the limit, the rate of convergence in the stationary regime is n^(-1/4) , whereas it is n^(-1) in the nonstationary regime. The proposed theory and estimation method is illustrated by both simulated and real data examples.

Kinetic parameter estimation from TGA: Optimal design of TGA experiments

This work presents a general methodology to determine kinetic models of solid thermal decomposition with thermogravimetric analysis (TGA) instruments. The goal is to determine a simple and robust kinetic model for a given solid with the minimum of TGA experiments. From this last point of view, this work can be seen as an attempt to find the optimal design of TGA experiments for kinetic modelling. Two computation tools were developed. The first is a nonlinear parameter estimation procedure for identifying parameters in nonlinear dynamical models. The second tool computes the thermogravimetric experiment (here, the programmed temperature profile applied to the thermobalance) required in order to identify the best kinetic parameters, i.e. parameters with a higher statistical reliability. The combination of the two tools can be integrated in an iterative approach generally called sequential strategy. The application concerns the thermal degradation of cardboard in a Setaram TGA instrument and the results that are presented demonstrate the improvements in the kinetic parameter estimation process

Semiparametric Bayesian inference in smooth coefficient models

We describe procedures for Bayesian estimation and testing in cross-sectional, panel data and nonlinear smooth coefficient models. The smooth coefficient model is a generalization of the partially linear or additive model wherein coefficients on linear explanatory variables are treated as unknown functions of an observable covariate. In the approach we describe, points on the regression lines are regarded as unknown parameters and priors are placed on differences between adjacent points to introduce the potential for smoothing the curves. The algorithms we describe are quite simple to implement - for example, estimation, testing and smoothing parameter selection can be carried out analytically in the cross-sectional smooth coefficient model. We apply our methods using data from the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth (NLSY). Using the NLSY data we first explore the relationship between ability and log wages and flexibly model how returns to schooling vary with measured cognitive ability. We also examine a model of female labor supply and use this example to illustrate how the described techniques can been applied in nonlinear settings

Moment Restriction-based Econometric Methods: An Overview

Moment restriction-based econometric modelling is a broad class which includes the parametric, semiparametric and nonparametric approaches. Moments and conditional moments themselves are nonparametric quantities. If a model is specified in part up to some finite dimensional parameters, this will provide semiparametric estimates or tests. If we use the score to construct moment restrictions to estimate finite dimensional parameters, this yields maximum likelihood (ML) estimates. Semiparametric or nonparametric settings based on moment restrictions have been the main concern in the literature, and comprise the most important and interesting topics. The purpose of this special issue on “Moment Restriction-based Econometric Methods” is to highlight some areas in which novel econometric methods have contributed significantly to the analysis of moment restrictions, specifically asymptotic theory for nonparametric regression with spatial data, a control variate method for stationary processes, method of moments estimation and identifiability of semiparametric nonlinear errors-in-variables models, properties of the CUE estimator and a modification with moments, finite sample properties of alternative estimators of coefficients in a structural equation with many instruments, instrumental variable estimation in the presence of many moment conditions, estimation of conditional moment restrictions without assuming parameter identifiability in the implied unconditional moments, moment-based estimation of smooth transition regression models with endogenous variables, a consistent nonparametric test for nonlinear causality, and linear programming-based estimators in simple linear regression.Moment restrictions; Parametric; semiparametric and nonparametric methods; Estimation; Testing; Robustness; Model misspecification

Moment Restriction-based Econometric Methods: An Overview

Moment restriction-based econometric modelling is a broad class which includes the parametric, semiparametric and nonparametric approaches. Moments and conditional moments themselves are nonparametric quantities. If a model is specified in part up to some finite dimensional parameters, this will provide semiparametric estimates or tests. If we use the score to construct moment restrictions to estimate finite dimensional parameters, this yields maximum likelihood (ML) estimates. Semiparametric or nonparametric settings based on moment restrictions have been the main concern in the literature, and comprise the most important and interesting topics. The purpose of this special issue on “Moment Restriction-based Econometric Methods†is to highlight some areas in which novel econometric methods have contributed significantly to the analysis of moment restrictions, specifically asymptotic theory for nonparametric regression with spatial data, a control variate method for stationary processes, method of moments estimation and identifiability of semiparametric nonlinear errors-in-variables models, properties of the CUE estimator and a modification with moments, finite sample properties of alternative estimators of coefficients in a structural equation with many instruments, instrumental variable estimation in the presence of many moment conditions, estimation of conditional moment restrictions without assuming parameter identifiability in the implied unconditional moments, moment-based estimation of smooth transition regression models with endogenous variables, a consistent nonparametric test for nonlinear causality, and linear programming-based estimators in simple linear regression.robustness;testing;estimation;model misspecification;moment restrictions;parametric;semiparametric and nonparametric methods

Prototype selection for parameter estimation in complex models

Parameter estimation in astrophysics often requires the use of complex physical models. In this paper we study the problem of estimating the parameters that describe star formation history (SFH) in galaxies. Here, high-dimensional spectral data from galaxies are appropriately modeled as linear combinations of physical components, called simple stellar populations (SSPs), plus some nonlinear distortions. Theoretical data for each SSP is produced for a fixed parameter vector via computer modeling. Though the parameters that define each SSP are continuous, optimizing the signal model over a large set of SSPs on a fine parameter grid is computationally infeasible and inefficient. The goal of this study is to estimate the set of parameters that describes the SFH of each galaxy. These target parameters, such as the average ages and chemical compositions of the galaxy's stellar populations, are derived from the SSP parameters and the component weights in the signal model. Here, we introduce a principled approach of choosing a small basis of SSP prototypes for SFH parameter estimation. The basic idea is to quantize the vector space and effective support of the model components. In addition to greater computational efficiency, we achieve better estimates of the SFH target parameters. In simulations, our proposed quantization method obtains a substantial improvement in estimating the target parameters over the common method of employing a parameter grid. Sparse coding techniques are not appropriate for this problem without proper constraints, while constrained sparse coding methods perform poorly for parameter estimation because their objective is signal reconstruction, not estimation of the target parameters.Comment: Published in at http://dx.doi.org/10.1214/11-AOAS500 the Annals of Applied Statistics (http://www.imstat.org/aoas/) by the Institute of Mathematical Statistics (http://www.imstat.org

State-space models' dirty little secrets: even simple linear Gaussian models can have estimation problems

State-space models (SSMs) are increasingly used in ecology to model time-series such as animal movement paths and population dynamics. This type of hierarchical model is often structured to account for two levels of variability: biological stochasticity and measurement error. SSMs are flexible. They can model linear and nonlinear processes using a variety of statistical distributions. Recent ecological SSMs are often complex, with a large number of parameters to estimate. Through a simulation study, we show that even simple linear Gaussian SSMs can suffer from parameter- and state-estimation problems. We demonstrate that these problems occur primarily when measurement error is larger than biological stochasticity, the condition that often drives ecologists to use SSMs. Using an animal movement example, we show how these estimation problems can affect ecological inference. Biased parameter estimates of a SSM describing the movement of polar bears (\textit{Ursus maritimus}) result in overestimating their energy expenditure. We suggest potential solutions, but show that it often remains difficult to estimate parameters. While SSMs are powerful tools, they can give misleading results and we urge ecologists to assess whether the parameters can be estimated accurately before drawing ecological conclusions from their results

Efficient Estimation of Semiparametric Conditional Moment Models with Possibly Nonsmooth Residuals

This paper considers semiparametric efficient estimation of conditional moment models with possibly nonsmooth residuals in unknown parametric components (theta) and unknown functions (h) of endogenous variables. We show that: (1) the penalized sieve minimum distance (PSMD) estimator (theta\hat,h\hat) can simultaneously achieve root-n asymptotic normality of theta\hat and nonparametric optimal convergence rate of h\hat, allowing for noncompact function parameter spaces; (2) a simple weighted bootstrap procedure consistently estimates the limiting distribution of the PSMD theta\hat; (3) the semiparametric efficiency bound formula of Ai and Chen (2003) remains valid for conditional models with nonsmooth residuals, and the optimally weighted PSMD estimator achieves the bound; (4) the centered, profiled optimally weighted PSMD criterion is asymptotically chi-square distributed. We illustrate our theories using a partially linear quantile instrumental variables (IV) regression, a Monte Carlo study, and an empirical estimation of the shape-invariant quantile IV Engel curves.Penalized sieve minimum distance, Nonsmooth generalized residuals, Nonlinear nonparametric endogeneity, Weighted bootstrap, Semiparametric efficiency, Confidence region, Partially linear quantile IV regression, Shape-invariant quantile IV Engel curves