‘When Unions Mattered\u27: Assessing the Impact of Strikes on Financial Markets: 1925-1937

This examination of the Stock Market’s responsiveness to strikes looks specifically at strike actions that labor historians generally view as the major ones occurring in the United States in the years 1925–37. The authors find that strikes had large, negative effects on industry stock value. Longer strikes, violent strikes, strikes in which unions “won,” industry-wide strikes, strikes that led to union recognition, and strikes that led to large wage increases were associated with larger negative share price reactions than were other strikes. Much of the “news” generated by the typical strike seems to have been registered by the Stock Market very early in the strike. However, there were also some fairly large stock price reactions to news that could be fully revealed only at the end of a strike

The Phillips Curve is Back? Using Panel Data to Analyze the Relationship Between Unemployment and Inflation in an Open Economy

Expanding on an approach suggested by Ashenfelter (1984), we extend the Phillips curve to an open economy and exploit panel data to estimate the textbook 'expectations augmented' Phillips curve with a market-based and observable measure of inflation expectations. We develop this measure using assumptions common in economic analysis of open economies. Using quarterly data from 9 OECD countries and the simplest econometric specification, we estimate the Phillips curve with the same functional form for the 1970s, 1980s, and 1990s. Our analysis suggests that although changing expectations played a role in creating the empirical failure of the Phillips Curve in the 1970s, supply shocks were at least as important.

Union Effects on Health Insurance Provision and Coverage in the United States

During the past two decades, union density has declined in the United States and employer provision of health benefits has undergone substantial changes in extent and form. Using individual data spanning the years 1983-1997, combined with establishment data for 1993, we update and extend previous analyses of private-sector union effects on employer-provided health benefits. We find that the union effect on health insurance coverage rates has fallen somewhat but remains large, due to an increase over time in the union effect on employee 'take-up' of offered insurance, and that declining unionization explains 20-35 percent of the decline in employee health coverage. The increasing union take-up effect is linked to union effects on employees' direct costs for health insurance and the availability of retiree coverage.

Skill Biased Technological Change and Rising Wage Inequality: Some Problems and Puzzles

The rise in wage inequality in the U.S. labor market during the 1980s is usually attributed to skill-biased technical change (SBTC), associated with the development of personal computers and related information technologies. We review the evidence in favor of this hypothesis, focusing on the implications of SBTC for economy-wide trends in wage inequality, and for the evolution of wage differentials between various groups. A fundamental problem for the SBTC hypothesis is that wage inequality stabilized in the 1990s, despite continuing advances in computer technology. SBTC also fails to explain the closing of the gender gap, the stability of the racial wage gap, and the dramatic rise in education-related wage gaps for younger versus older workers. We conclude that the SBTC hypothesis is not very helpful in understanding the myriad shifts in the structure of wages that have occurred over the past three decades.

Economic Impacts of Unionization on Private Sector Employers: 1984-2001

Economic impacts of unionization on employers are difficult to estimate in the absence of large, representative data on establishments with union status information. Estimates are also confounded by selection bias, because unions could organize at highly profitable enterprises that are more likely to grow and pay higher wages. Using multiple establishment-level data sets that represent establishments that faced organizing drives in the U.S. during 1984-1999, this paper uses a regression discontinuity design to estimate the impact of unionization on business survival, employment, output, productivity, and wages. Essentially, outcomes for employers where unions barely won the election (e.g. by one vote) are compared to those where the unions barely lost. The analysis finds small impacts on all outcomes that we examine; estimates for wages are close to zero. The evidence suggests that at least in recent decades the legal mandate that requires the employer to bargain with a certified union has had little economic impact on employers, because unions have been somewhat unsuccessful at securing significant wage gains.

Technology and U.S. wage inequality: a brief look

As labor market analysts in the late 1980s and early 1990s documented a rising wage inequality, a series of papers argued that this development was related to rapid technological change. These papers and the large literature that followed established a basis for the virtually unanimous agreement among economists that developments in computers and related information technologies in the 1970s, '80s, and '90s have led to increased wage inequality. ; This view has become known as the "skill-biased technological change" (SBTC) hypothesis-the view that a burst of new technologies increased demand by employers for highly skilled workers (who are more likely to use computers) and that this increased demand led to a rise in the wages of the highly skilled relative to those of the less skilled. ; The authors of this article reconsider the evidence for the SBTC hypothesis and focus on changes over time in overall wage inequality and in the evolution of different groups of workers' relative wages. In doing so, they conclude that SBTC falls far short of unicausal explanation of the substantial changes in the U.S. wage structure of the 1980s and 1990s and does not, by itself, prove to be particularly helpful in organizing or understandings these changes. The article concludes that it is time to re-evaluate the case that SBTC offers a satisfactory explanation for the rise in U.S. wage inequality.Wages ; Productivity ; Technology ; Economic development

Do Immigrant Inflows Lead to Native Outflows?

We use 1980 and 1990 Census data for 119 larger Metropolitan Statistical Areas to examine the effect of skill-group specific immigrant inflows on the location decisions of natives in the same skill group, and on the overall distribution of human capital. To control for unobserved skill-group specific demand factors, our models include lagged mobility flows of natives over the 1970-80 period. We also estimate instrumental variables models that use the fraction of Mexican immigrants in 1970 to predict skill-group specific relative immigrant inflows over the 1980s. Despite wide variation across cities in the size and relative skill composition of immigrant population changes we find no evidence of selective out-migration by natives. We conclude that immigrant inflows exert a direct effect on the relative skill composition of cities: cities that have received relatively unskilled immigrant flows have experienced proportional rises in the size of their unskilled populations.

The Impact of Unionization on Establishment Closure: A Regression Discontinuity Analysis of Representation Elections

Using data on more than 27,000 establishments (1983-1999) in the United States, this paper produces estimates of the causal effect of unionization of employer closure by exploiting the fact that most employers become 'unionized' as a partial consequence of a secret ballot election among the workers. If employers where unions barely won the election (e.g. by one vote) are ex ante comparable in all other ways to employers where unions barely lost (by one vote), differences in their subsequent outcomes should represent the true impact of union recognition. The regression discontinuity analysis finds little or no union effect on short- and long-run employer survival rates over 1- to 18-year horizons. We thus conclude that evidence of large effects of unions would more likely be found 1) along the within-employer (intensive margin) of employment and/or 2) in analyses of union threat effects.

New Evidence on the Finite Sample Properties of Propensity Score Matching and Reweighting Estimators

Currently available asymptotic results in the literature suggest that matching estimators have higher variance than reweighting estimators. The extant literature comparing the finite sample properties of matching to specific reweighting estimators, however, has concluded that reweighting performs far worse than even the simplest matching estimator. We resolve this puzzle. We show that the findings from the finite sample analyses are not inconsistent with asymptotic analysis, but are very specific to particular choices regarding the implementation of reweighting, and fail to generalize to settings likely to be encountered in actual empirical practice. In the DGPs studied here, reweighting typically outperforms propensity score matching.treatment effects, propensity score, semiparametric efficiency