Development of Complexity Science and Technology Tools for NextGen Airspace Research and Applications

The objective of this research by NextGen AeroSciences, LLC is twofold: 1) to deliver an initial "toolbox" of algorithms, agent-based structures, and method descriptions for introducing trajectory agency as a methodology for simulating and analyzing airspace states, including bulk properties of large numbers of heterogeneous 4D aircraft trajectories in a test airspace -- while maintaining or increasing system safety; and 2) to use these tools in a test airspace to identify possible phase transition structure to predict when an airspace will approach the limits of its capacity. These 4D trajectories continuously replan their paths in the presence of noise and uncertainty while optimizing performance measures and performing conflict detection and resolution. In this approach, trajectories are represented as extended objects endowed with pseudopotential, maintaining time and fuel-efficient paths by bending just enough to accommodate separation while remaining inside of performance envelopes. This trajectory-centric approach differs from previous aircraft-centric distributed approaches to deconfliction. The results of this project are the following: 1) we delivered a toolbox of algorithms, agent-based structures and method descriptions as pseudocode; and 2) we corroborated the existence of phase transition structure in simulation with the addition of "early warning" detected prior to "full" airspace. This research suggests that airspace "fullness" can be anticipated and remedied before the airspace becomes unsafe

Aircraft Trajectory Planning Considering Ensemble Forecasting of Thunderstorms

Mención Internacional en el título de doctorConvective weather poses a major threat that compromises the safe operation of flights while inducing delay and cost. The aircraft trajectory planning problem under thunderstorm evolution is addressed in this thesis, proposing two novel heuristic approaches that incorporate uncertainties in the evolution of convective cells. In this context, two additional challenges are faced. On the one hand, studies have demonstrated that given the computational power available nowadays, the best way to characterize weather uncertainties is through ensemble forecasting products, hence compatibility with them is crucial. On the other hand, for the algorithms to be used during a flight, they must be fast and deliver results in a few seconds. As a first methodology, three variants of the Scenario-Based Rapidly-Exploring Random Trees (SB-RRTs) are proposed. Each of them builds a tree to explore the free airspace during an iterative and random process. The so-called SB-RRT, the SB-RRT∗ and the Informed SB-RRT∗ find point-to-point safe trajectories by meeting a user-defined safety threshold. Additionally, the last two techniques converge to solutions of minimum flight length. In a second instance, the Augmented Random Search (ARS) algorithm is used to sample trajectories from a directed graph and deform them iteratively in the search for an optimal path. The aim of such deformations is to adapt the initial graph to the unsafe set and its possible changes. In the end, the ARS determines the population of trajectories that, on average, minimizes a combination of flight time, time in storms, and fuel consumption Both methodologies are tested considering a dynamic model of an aircraft flying between two waypoints at a constant flight level. Test scenarios consist of realistic weather forecasts described by an ensemble of equiprobable members. Moreover, the influence of relevant parameters, such as the maximum number of iterations, safety margin (in SB-RRTs) or relative weights between objectives (in ARS) is analyzed. Since both algorithms and their convergence processes are random, sensitivity analyses are conducted to show that after enough iterations the results match. Finally, through parallelization on graphical processing units, the required computational times are reduced substantially to become compatible with near real-time operation. In either case, results show that the suggested approaches are able to avoid dangerous and uncertain stormy regions, minimize objectives such as time of flight, flown distance or fuel consumption and operate in less than 10 seconds.Los fenómenos convectivos representan una gran amenaza que compromete la seguridad de los vuelos, a la vez que incrementa los retrasos y costes. En esta tesis se aborda el problema de la planificación de vuelos bajo la influencia de tormentas, proponiendo dos nuevos métodos heurísticos que incorporan incertidumbre en la evolución de las células convectivas. En este contexto, se intentará dar respuesta a dos desafíos adicionales. Por un lado, hay estudios que demuestran que, con los recursos computacionales disponibles hoy en día, la mejor manera de caracterizar la incertidumbre meteorológica es mediante productos de tipo “ensemble”. Por tanto, la compatibilidad con ellos es crucial. Por otro lado, para poder emplear los algoritmos durante el vuelo, deben de ser rápidos y obtener resultados en pocos segundos. Como primera aproximación, se proponen tres variantes de los “Scenario-Based Rapidly-Exploring Random Trees” (SB-RRTs). Cada uno de ellos crea un árbol que explora el espacio seguro durante un proceso iterativo y aleatorio. Los denominados SB-RRT, SB-RRT∗ e Informed SB-RRT∗ calculan trayectorias entre dos puntos respetando un margen de seguridad impuesto por el usuario. Además, los dos últimos métodos convergen en soluciones de mínima distancia de vuelo. En segundo lugar, el algoritmo “Augmented Random Search” (ARS) se utiliza para muestrear trajectorias de un grafo dirigido y deformarlas iterativamente en busca del camino óptimo. El fin de tales deformaciones es adaptar el grafo inicial a las zonas peligrosas y a los cambios que puedan sufrir. Finalmente, el ARS calcula aquella población de trayectorias que, de media, minimiza una combinación del tiempo de vuelo, el tiempo en zonas tormentosas y el consumo de combustible. Ambas metodologías se testean considerando un modelo de avión volando punto a punto a altitud constante. Los casos de prueba se basan en datos meteorológicos realistas formados por un grupo de predicciones equiprobables. Además, se analiza la influencia de los parámetros más importantes como el máximo número de iteraciones, el margen de seguridad (en SB-RRTs) o los pesos relativos de cada objetivo (en ARS). Como ambos algoritmos y sus procesos de convergencia son aleatorios, se realizan análisis de sensibilidad para mostrar que, tras suficientes iteraciones, los resultados coinciden. Por último, mediante técnicas de paralelización en procesadores gráficos, se reducen enormemente los tiempos de cálculo, siendo compatibles con una operación en tiempo casi-real. En ambos casos los resultados muestran que los algoritmos son capaces de evitar zonas inciertas de tormenta, minimizar objetivos como el tiempo de vuelo, la distancia recorrida o el consumo de combustible, en menos de 10 segundos de ejecución.Programa de Doctorado en Ingeniería Aeroespacial por la Universidad Carlos III de MadridPresidente: Ernesto Staffetti Giammaria.- Secretario: Alfonso Valenzuela Romero.- Vocal: Valentin Polishchu

Surrogate Measures of Safety with a Focus on Vulnerable Road Users : An exploration of theory, practice, exposure, and validity

Surrogate measures of safety (SMoS) are meant to function as tools to investigate traffic safety. The term surrogate indicates that these measures do not rely on crash data; instead, they focus on identifying safety critical events (or near-crashes) in traffic, which can be used as an alternative to crash records. The overall aim of this thesis is to explore which SMoS are suitable when analysing the safety of vulnerable road users (pedestrians and cyclists). The thesis attempts to answer this question using two different approaches: 1) a literature review focusing on existing surrogate measures and how well they consider vulnerable road users from a theoretical perspective, and 2) four observational studies which focus on the validity of SMoS and their relation to exposure.The literature review focuses on identifying existing SMoS, and on two main aspects when evaluating their suitability for analysing the safety of vulnerable road users. Firstly, if the indicators theoretically are able to measure both the risk of collision and the potential for injury should a collision occur, and secondly, to what extent vulnerable road users were included in previous validation studies. The findings from the literature review are that the most commonly used indicators (Time to Collision Minimum and Post Encroachment Time) are also the most validated, but that they have several theoretical limitations, mainly that they to do not measure injury potential and that they measure the severity of an event based on the outcome rather than the initial conditions or potential/observed evasive actions. There are also several indicators which theoretically are more suitable but instead lack validation studies.The observational studies, which make up the second part of this thesis, consist of an attempt at a large-scale validation study, followed by several studies which focus on the shortcomings discovered in the first attempt. The large-scale study is based on three weeks of video recordings made at 26 signalized intersections in seven European countries. The analysis of these videos resulted in three major findings. Firstly, the lack of comparable crash records made any large-scale validation attempts impossible. Secondly, the lack of comparability between the critical events identified by human observers and those identified by computer calculations made it infeasible to perform a long-term analysis. Thirdly, there is a significant relationship between meetings and critical events identified using Time to Collision Minimum and Post Encroachment Time, which suggests that some of the benefit of using those (and other indicators) might originate from their inherent connection to simple meetings between road users (i.e. exposure). Following these results, the thesis presents a limited validation study based solely on the Scandinavian intersections followed by a suggestion for how a relative approach to validity might offer a potentially easier way of evaluating SMoS in the future. The results from these studies indicate that Time to Collision Minimum can measure safety to at least some extent, while Post Encroachment Time measures it to a lesser extent. Due to the strong connection between critical events and meetings, the thesis also explores how a meeting between road users can be defined and how understanding what constitutes an opportunity for a crash might help to explain the so-called safety-in-numbers effect, as well as how future SMoS studies should consider meetings

Proceedings of the XIII Global Optimization Workshop: GOW'16

[Excerpt] Preface: Past Global Optimization Workshop shave been held in Sopron (1985 and 1990), Szeged (WGO, 1995), Florence (GO’99, 1999), Hanmer Springs (Let’s GO, 2001), Santorini (Frontiers in GO, 2003), San José (Go’05, 2005), Mykonos (AGO’07, 2007), Skukuza (SAGO’08, 2008), Toulouse (TOGO’10, 2010), Natal (NAGO’12, 2012) and Málaga (MAGO’14, 2014) with the aim of stimulating discussion between senior and junior researchers on the topic of Global Optimization. In 2016, the XIII Global Optimization Workshop (GOW’16) takes place in Braga and is organized by three researchers from the University of Minho. Two of them belong to the Systems Engineering and Operational Research Group from the Algoritmi Research Centre and the other to the Statistics, Applied Probability and Operational Research Group from the Centre of Mathematics. The event received more than 50 submissions from 15 countries from Europe, South America and North America. We want to express our gratitude to the invited speaker Panos Pardalos for accepting the invitation and sharing his expertise, helping us to meet the workshop objectives. GOW’16 would not have been possible without the valuable contribution from the authors and the International Scientific Committee members. We thank you all. This proceedings book intends to present an overview of the topics that will be addressed in the workshop with the goal of contributing to interesting and fruitful discussions between the authors and participants. After the event, high quality papers can be submitted to a special issue of the Journal of Global Optimization dedicated to the workshop. [...