Forecasting of financial data: a novel fuzzy logic neural network based on error-correction concept and statistics

First, this paper investigates the effect of good and bad news on volatility in the BUX return time series using asymmetric ARCH models. Then, the accuracy of forecasting models based on statistical (stochastic), machine learning methods, and soft/granular RBF network is investigated. To forecast the high-frequency financial data, we apply statistical ARMA and asymmetric GARCH-class models. A novel RBF network architecture is proposed based on incorporation of an error-correction mechanism, which improves forecasting ability of feed-forward neural networks. These proposed modelling approaches and SVM models are applied to predict the high-frequency time series of the BUX stock index. We found that it is possible to enhance forecast accuracy and achieve significant risk reduction in managerial decision making by applying intelligent forecasting models based on latest information technologies. On the other hand, we showed that statistical GARCH-class models can identify the presence of leverage effects, and react to the good and bad news.Web of Science421049

Data mining technology for the evaluation of learning content interaction

Interactivity is central for the success of learning. In e-learning and other educational multimedia environments, the evaluation of interaction and behaviour is particularly crucial. Data mining – a non-intrusive, objective analysis technology – shall be proposed as the central evaluation technology for the analysis of the usage of computer-based educational environments and in particular of the interaction with educational content. Basic mining techniques are reviewed and their application in a Web-based third-level course environment is illustrated. Analytic models capturing interaction aspects from the application domain (learning) and the software infrastructure (interactive multimedia) are required for the meaningful interpretation of mining results

Data granulation by the principles of uncertainty

Researches in granular modeling produced a variety of mathematical models, such as intervals, (higher-order) fuzzy sets, rough sets, and shadowed sets, which are all suitable to characterize the so-called information granules. Modeling of the input data uncertainty is recognized as a crucial aspect in information granulation. Moreover, the uncertainty is a well-studied concept in many mathematical settings, such as those of probability theory, fuzzy set theory, and possibility theory. This fact suggests that an appropriate quantification of the uncertainty expressed by the information granule model could be used to define an invariant property, to be exploited in practical situations of information granulation. In this perspective, a procedure of information granulation is effective if the uncertainty conveyed by the synthesized information granule is in a monotonically increasing relation with the uncertainty of the input data. In this paper, we present a data granulation framework that elaborates over the principles of uncertainty introduced by Klir. Being the uncertainty a mesoscopic descriptor of systems and data, it is possible to apply such principles regardless of the input data type and the specific mathematical setting adopted for the information granules. The proposed framework is conceived (i) to offer a guideline for the synthesis of information granules and (ii) to build a groundwork to compare and quantitatively judge over different data granulation procedures. To provide a suitable case study, we introduce a new data granulation technique based on the minimum sum of distances, which is designed to generate type-2 fuzzy sets. We analyze the procedure by performing different experiments on two distinct data types: feature vectors and labeled graphs. Results show that the uncertainty of the input data is suitably conveyed by the generated type-2 fuzzy set models.Comment: 16 pages, 9 figures, 52 reference

LEGaTO: first steps towards energy-efficient toolset for heterogeneous computing

LEGaTO is a three-year EU H2020 project which started in December 2017. The LEGaTO project will leverage task-based programming models to provide a software ecosystem for Made-in-Europe heterogeneous hardware composed of CPUs, GPUs, FPGAs and dataflow engines. The aim is to attain one order of magnitude energy savings from the edge to the converged cloud/HPC.Peer ReviewedPostprint (author's final draft

Memristors for the Curious Outsiders

We present both an overview and a perspective of recent experimental advances and proposed new approaches to performing computation using memristors. A memristor is a 2-terminal passive component with a dynamic resistance depending on an internal parameter. We provide an brief historical introduction, as well as an overview over the physical mechanism that lead to memristive behavior. This review is meant to guide nonpractitioners in the field of memristive circuits and their connection to machine learning and neural computation.Comment: Perpective paper for MDPI Technologies; 43 page

Towards a Unified Theory of Neocortex: Laminar Cortical Circuits for Vision and Cognition

A key goal of computational neuroscience is to link brain mechanisms to behavioral functions. The present article describes recent progress towards explaining how laminar neocortical circuits give rise to biological intelligence. These circuits embody two new and revolutionary computational paradigms: Complementary Computing and Laminar Computing. Circuit properties include a novel synthesis of feedforward and feedback processing, of digital and analog processing, and of pre-attentive and attentive processing. This synthesis clarifies the appeal of Bayesian approaches but has a far greater predictive range that naturally extends to self-organizing processes. Examples from vision and cognition are summarized. A LAMINART architecture unifies properties of visual development, learning, perceptual grouping, attention, and 3D vision. A key modeling theme is that the mechanisms which enable development and learning to occur in a stable way imply properties of adult behavior. It is noted how higher-order attentional constraints can influence multiple cortical regions, and how spatial and object attention work together to learn view-invariant object categories. In particular, a form-fitting spatial attentional shroud can allow an emerging view-invariant object category to remain active while multiple view categories are associated with it during sequences of saccadic eye movements. Finally, the chapter summarizes recent work on the LIST PARSE model of cognitive information processing by the laminar circuits of prefrontal cortex. LIST PARSE models the short-term storage of event sequences in working memory, their unitization through learning into sequence, or list, chunks, and their read-out in planned sequential performance that is under volitional control. LIST PARSE provides a laminar embodiment of Item and Order working memories, also called Competitive Queuing models, that have been supported by both psychophysical and neurobiological data. These examples show how variations of a common laminar cortical design can embody properties of visual and cognitive intelligence that seem, at least on the surface, to be mechanistically unrelated.National Science Foundation (SBE-0354378); Office of Naval Research (N00014-01-1-0624

Neurocognitive Informatics Manifesto.

Informatics studies all aspects of the structure of natural and artificial information systems. Theoretical and abstract approaches to information have made great advances, but human information processing is still unmatched in many areas, including information management, representation and understanding. Neurocognitive informatics is a new, emerging field that should help to improve the matching of artificial and natural systems, and inspire better computational algorithms to solve problems that are still beyond the reach of machines. In this position paper examples of neurocognitive inspirations and promising directions in this area are given