How Much Control is Enough? Monitoring and Enforcement under Stalin.

In hierarchies, agents’ hidden actions increase principals' transactions costs and give rise to a demand for monitoring and enforcement. The fact that the latter are costly raises questions about their scope, organisation, and type. How much control is enough? The paper uses historical records to examine Stalin’s answers to this question. We find that Stalin's behaviour was consistent with his aiming to maximise the efficiency of the Soviet system of control subject to the loyalty of his inspectors and the risk of a “chaos of orders” arising from parallel centres of power.Casymmetric information, principal-agent problem, transaction costs, hierarchy, USSR

Process Modeling of Qualitative Decision Under Uncertainty

Fuzzy-trace theory assumes that decision-makers processqualitative “gist” representations and quantitative “verbatim”representations in parallel. Here, we develop a formal modelof fuzzy-trace theory that explains both processes. The modelalso integrates effects of individual differences in numeracy,metacognitive monitoring and editing, and sensation seeking.Parameters of the model varied in theoretically meaningfulways with differences in numeracy, monitoring, and sensationseeking, accounting for risk preferences at multiple levels.Relations to current theories and potential extensions arediscussed

Microbial Risk Assessment Framework for Exposure to Amended Sludge Projects

BackgroundAlthough the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency has a long history of using risk-based approaches for regulatory purposes, pollutant limits for pathogens in biosolids are not currently based on quantitative risk assessments.ObjectivesWe developed and demonstrated a risk-based methodology for assessing the risk to human health from exposure to pathogens via biosolids.MaterialsFour models were developed, incorporating direct ingestion, groundwater, and aerosol exposure pathways. Three sources of environmental data were used to estimate risk: pathogen monitoring of sludge, efficacy of sludge treatment, and pathogen monitoring of biosolids.ResultsRisk estimates were obtainable even for Class A biosolids, where posttreatment monitoring data are below detectable levels, demonstrating that risk assessments for biosolids exposure are practical. Model analyses suggest that: a) a two-digester design decreases the probability of risks >10(-4) compared with one-digester designs, b) risks associated with exposures to groundwater and aerosol pathways were, in general, lower than exposures to the direct ingestion pathway, and c) secondary transmission can be an important factor in risk estimation.ConclusionsThe risk-based approach presented here provides a tool to a) help biosolids producers interpret the results of biosolids monitoring data in terms of its health implications, b) help treatment plant engineers evaluate the risk-based benefits of operational changes to existing or projected treatment processes, and c) help environmental managers evaluate potential capital improvements and/or land application site placement issues. Regulation of pathogens can now be based on human health risk in a manner parallel to other water-related risks

Public health risk of Giardia and Cryptosporidium posed by reintroduction of beavers into Scotland

Following publication of ‘Scottish Beaver Trial Independent Public Health Monitoring 2009-2014 Report and Recommendations’ (Mackie, 2014), two pieces of complementary work were undertaken in parallel to assess the potential contribution of reintroduced beavers in Scotland to the public health burden of disease attributed to Giardia spp. and Cryptosporidium spp. parasites. The first, a risk assessment, addressing the question ‘What is the likelihood that re-introduced beavers will have a significant impact on the contamination of drinking water supplies with Cryptosporidium parvum and Giardia lamblia?’ (Appendix 1), was conducted by Scottish Government’s Centre of Expertise on Animal Disease Outbreaks (EPIC). This reviewed evidence from data and publications across the world, as well as evidence from the beaver trial and SNH’s Tayside beaver reports, and used this to assess the likely additional contribution of beavers to the risk associated with exposure to these parasites in Scotland. The second, ‘What is the likelihood that beavers will be an important source of contamination of drinking water supplies with Cryptosporidium parvum and Giardia intestinalis?’ (Appendix 2), was prepared by Health Protection Scotland (HPS), Scottish Parasite Diagnostic Reference Laboratory (SPDL) and Drinking Water Quality Regulator for Scotland (DWQR). This reviewed the diagnostics, surveillance and epidemiology of these infections in people in Scotland

Central governance based on monitoring and reporting solves the collective-risk social dilemma

Monitoring and reporting incorrect acts are pervasive for maintaining human cooperation, but in theory it is unclear how they influence each other. To explore their possible interactions we consider spatially structured population where individuals face the collective-risk social dilemma. In our minimal model cooperator players report defection according to the loss of their interests. In parallel we assume a monitoring institution that monitors all group member and identifies wrong behavior with a certain probability. In response to these feedbacks a sanctioning institution develops punishment schemes by imposing fines on related defector players stochastically. By means of Monte Carlo simulations, we find that the introduction of monitoring and reporting mechanisms can greatly promote the evolution of cooperation and there exists a sudden change of the cooperation level by varying model parameters, which can lead to an outbreak of cooperation for solving the collective-risk social dilemma.Comment: 6 figure

Visual Analytics for Health Monitoring and Risk Management in CARRE

With the rise of wearable sensor technologies, an increasing number of wearable health and medical sensors are available on the market, which enables not only people but also doctors to utilise them to monitor people’s health in such a consistent way that the sensors may become people’s lifetime companion. The consistent measurements from a variety of wearable sensors implies that a huge amount of data needs to be processed, which cannot be achieved by traditional processing methods. Visual analytics is designed to promote knowledge discovery and utilisation of big data via mature visual paradigms with well-designed user interactions and has become indispensable in big data analysis. In this paper we introduce the role of visual analytics for health monitoring and risk management in the European Commission funded project CARRE which aims to provide innovative means for the management of cardiorenal diseases with the assistance of wearable sensors. The visual analytics components of timeline and parallel coordinates for health monitoring and of node-link diagrams, chord diagrams and sankey diagrams for risk analysis are presented to achieve ubiquitous and lifelong health and risk monitoring to promote people’s health

Test of FBG sensors for monitoring high pressure pipes

Fibre Bragg Grating (FBG) sensors are increasingly being used on a wide range of civil, industrial and aerospace structures. The sensors are created inside optical fibres (usually standard telecommunication fibres); the optical fibres technology allows to install the sensors on structures working in harsh environments, since the materials are almost insensitive to corrosion, the monitoring system can be positioned far away from the sensors without sensible signal losses, and there is no risk of electric discharge. FBG sensors can be used to create strain gages, thermometers or accelerometers, depending on the coating on the grating, on the way the grating is fixed to the structure, and on the presence of a specifically designed interface that can act as a transducer. This paper describes a test of several different FBG sensors to monitor an high pressure pipe that feeds the hydraulic actuators of a 6 degrees-of-freedom shaking table at the ENEA Casaccia research centre. A bare FBG sensor and a copper coated FBG sensor have been glued on the pipe. A third sensor has been mounted on a special interface to amplify the vibrations; this last sensor can be placed on the steel pipe by a magnetic mounting system, that also allows the its removal. All the sensor are placed parallel to the axis of the pipe. The analysis of the data recorded when the shaking table is operated will allow to determine which kind of sensor is best suited for structural monitoring of high pressure pipelines

Parallel and overlapping Human Immunodeficiency Virus, Hepatitis B and C virus Infections among pregnant women in the Federal Capital Territory, Abuja, Nigeria

Background: Risk factors that are associated with HIV infection are also associated with HBV and HCV infections in sub-Saharan Africa. The HIV-infected pregnant cohort represents a unique population and infection with the hepatitis virus is considered a public health problem worldwide. Objective: The purpose of this study was to evaluate the prevalence of Human Immunodeficiency Virus, Hepatitis B and C virus parallel and overlapping infections among pregnant women attending antenatal clinics in Federal Capital Territory (FCT), Abuja. Method: Five hundred (500) blood samples were collected from three district hospitals in the FCT and tested at Wuse General Hospital, Abuja for the presence of antibodies to HIV and Hepatitis C virus, and HBsAg by ELISA technique in accordance with the manufacturer’s instructions. HIV seropositive sera were confirmed by Western blot. Result: Of the 500 pregnant women, those detected with HIV antibodies, HBsAg and anti-HCV antibodies were 42 (8.4%), 19 (3.8%) and 8 (1.6%) respectively. The overall seroprevalence of HIV and HBV or HCV co-infection was 9.5% while 7.1% and 2.4% HIV positive pregnant women were specifically co-infected with HBV and HCV respectively. Those within the age bracket of 15-20 years had the highest prevalence of HIV (13.4%), HBV (5.1%) and HCV (1.9%) infections. Among the occupation characteristics of the women, those of them involved in trading recorded the highest prevalence of HIV (60.6%), HBV (30.3) and HCV (6.1%). HIV was higher among the married women than the singles ((8.6% vs 6.5%); with HBV infection the reverse was the case (3.0% vs 9.8%) while HCV was same for both groups. History of blood transfusion did not reflect a higher rate of HIV and HBV (1.4% vs 9.6%; 2.8% vs 4.0% respectively) unlike HCV infection with 0.5% recorded only among those that had transfusion experience. Conclusion: When monitoring the risk of hepatotoxicity to antiretroviral drugs among these group of patients caution should be maintained. Moreover, evidence of parallel and overlapping HIV, HBsAg and HCV infections among this cohort should motivate inclusion of HBV and HCV among the diseases of surveillance in the national sentinel survey in order to ascertain the bigger picture of these infections in Nigeria

Intensive heart rhythm monitoring to decrease ischemic stroke and systemic embolism - the Find-AF 2 study - rationale and design

Background Atrial fibrillation (AF) is one of the most frequent causes of stroke. Several randomized trials have shown that prolonged monitoring increases the detection of AF, but the effect on reducing recurrent cardioembolism, i.e. ischemic stroke and systemic embolism, remains unknown. We aim to evaluate whether a risk-adapted, intensified heart rhythm monitoring with consequent guideline conform treatment, which implies initiation of oral anticoagulation (OAC), leads to a reduction of recurrent cardioembolism. Methods Find-AF 2 is a randomized, controlled, open-label parallel multicenter trial with blinded endpoint assessment. 5,200 patients ≥ 60 years of age with symptomatic ischemic stroke within the last 30 days and without known AF will be included at 52 study centers with a specialized stroke unit in Germany. Patients without AF in an additional 24-hour Holter ECG after the qualifying event will be randomized in a 1:1 fashion to either enhanced, prolonged and intensified ECG-monitoring (intervention arm) or standard of care monitoring (control arm). In the intervention arm, patients with a high risk of underlying AF will receive continuous rhythm monitoring using an implantable cardiac monitor (ICM) whereas those without high risk of underlying AF will receive repeated 7-day Holter ECGs. The duration of rhythm monitoring within the control arm is up to the discretion of the participating centers and is allowed for up to 7 days. Patients will be followed for at least 24 months. The primary efficacy endpoint is the time until recurrent ischemic stroke or systemic embolism occur. Conclusions The Find-AF 2 trial aims to demonstrate that enhanced, prolonged and intensified rhythm monitoring results in a more effective prevention of recurrent ischemic stroke and systemic embolism compared to usual care