The Potential of Agent Based Models for Testing City Evacuation Strategies Under a Flood Event

AbstractThis paper explores the uses of Agent Based Models (ABM) and its potential to test large scale evacuation strategies in coastal cities under threat of an imminent flooding due to extreme hydro-meteorological events. The first part of the paper is an introduction to the field of complex adaptive systems (CAS) and the principles and uses of ABM in this field. It is also presented the benefits and limitations of such models. The second part of the paper focuses on the theory used to build the ABM. For this study, theories and frameworks of human behaviour and disaster psychology were used. To feed the ABM model qualitative and quantitative attributes or characteristics of human beings are abstracted from literature review, fieldwork and expert's knowledge. The third part of the paper shows the methodology used to build and implement the ABM model using Repast Symphony, a Java based modelling system. The results of the initial experiments implemented in a region of the city of Marbella, southern Spain, are presented and discussed. The preliminary results are promising to further enhance the development of the model and its implementation and testing at full city scale

Integration of agent-based modelling of social-spatial processes in architectural parametric design

A representation framework for modelling the social-spatial processes of inhabitation is proposed to extend the scope of parametric architectural design process. We introduce an agent-based modelling framework with a computational model of social-spatial dynamics at its core. Architectural parametric design is performed as a process of modelling the temporal characteristics of spatial changes required for members of a social group to reach social spatial comfort. We have developed a prototype agent-based modelling system using the Rhino-Grasshopper platform. The system employs a human behaviour model adapted from the PECS (Physical, Emotional, Cognitive, Social) reference model first proposed by Schmidt and Urban. The agent-based model and its application was evaluated by comparative modelling of two real Vietnamese dwellings: a traditional vernacular house in Hue and a contemporary house in Ho Chi Minh City. The evaluation shows that the system returns differentiated temporal characteristics of spatial modifications of the two dwellings as expected

The Relationship between Fuzzy Reasoning and Its Temporal Characteristics for Knowledge Management

The knowledge management systems based on artificial reasoning (KMAR) tries to provide computers the capabilities of performing various intelligent tasks for which their human users resort to their knowledge and collective intelligence. There is a need for incorporating aspects of time and imprecision into knowledge management systems, considering appropriate semantic foundations. The aim of this paper is to present the FRTES, a real-time fuzzy expert system, embedded in a knowledge management system. Our expert system is a special possibilistic expert system, developed in order to focus on fuzzy knowledge.Knowledge Management, Artificial Reasoning, predictability

Higher-level Knowledge, Rational and Social Levels Constraints of the Common Model of the Mind

In his famous 1982 paper, Allen Newell [22, 23] introduced the notion of knowledge level to indicate a level of analysis, and prediction, of the rational behavior of a cognitive articial agent. This analysis concerns the investigation about the availability of the agent knowledge, in order to pursue its own goals, and is based on the so-called Rationality Principle (an assumption according to which "an agent will use the knowledge it has of its environment to achieve its goals" [22, p. 17]. By using the Newell's own words: "To treat a system at the knowledge level is to treat it as having some knowledge, some goals, and believing it will do whatever is within its power to attain its goals, in so far as its knowledge indicates" [22, p. 13]. In the last decades, the importance of the knowledge level has been historically and system- atically downsized by the research area in cognitive architectures (CAs), whose interests have been mainly focused on the analysis and the development of mechanisms and the processes governing human and (articial) cognition. The knowledge level in CAs, however, represents a crucial level of analysis for the development of such articial general systems and therefore deserves greater research attention [17]. In the following, we will discuss areas of broad agree- ment and outline the main problematic aspects that should be faced within a Common Model of Cognition [12]. Such aspects, departing from an analysis at the knowledge level, also clearly impact both lower (e.g. representational) and higher (e.g. social) levels

The Potential of Agent Based Models for Testing City Evacuation Strategies Under a Flood Event

AbstractThis paper explores the uses of Agent Based Models (ABM) and its potential to test large scale evacuation strategies in coastal cities under threat of an imminent flooding due to extreme hydro-meteorological events. The first part of the paper is an introduction to the field of complex adaptive systems (CAS) and the principles and uses of ABM in this field. It is also presented the benefits and limitations of such models. The second part of the paper focuses on the theory used to build the ABM. For this study, theories and frameworks of human behaviour and disaster psychology were used. To feed the ABM model qualitative and quantitative attributes or characteristics of human beings are abstracted from literature review, fieldwork and expert's knowledge. The third part of the paper shows the methodology used to build and implement the ABM model using Repast Symphony, a Java based modelling system. The results of the initial experiments implemented in a region of the city of Marbella, southern Spain, are presented and discussed. The preliminary results are promising to further enhance the development of the model and its implementation and testing at full city scale

Study of an emergency situation using 2D and 3D simulation models

Safety in motorway tunnels has become a critical issue in the last years, especially after the accident happened in 1999 inside the Mont Blanc tunnel, causing 39 deaths and several dozens of intoxications and wounded people. After this tragic event, the European Union imposed stricter regulations and procedures for emergency situations inside road tunnels longer than 1000 m. According to this situation, the authors propose the use of M&S (Modeling and Simulation) in order to manage a tunnel evacuation after a fire exploding in consequence to an accident, taking into account a series of significant factors like the road signs position (new criteria have been introduced with new regulation), but also human factors which significantly affect the procedure outcome. First a 2-D simulation model has been developed using Java™ Software, in which the user can analyze the behavior of the people escaping and the dynamics of the fire exploded and, consequently, assess the effectiveness of all the emergency procedures and infrastructures. In particular, regarding the state variables related to the human behavior, the model takes into account the main aspects of PECS (Physical Emotional Cognitive Social) reference models, in which physical, emotional, cognitive and social factors have to be studied. The model presented in this work is in fact quite similar to the one described by (Schmidt, 2000), called “Adam’s World” where Adam, a primitive man, lives in an environment having food sources where he can replenish his energy level, but also traps and danger points to be avoided in order not to consume his energy faster. The aim of the two models is the same: first of all preserve life and health, but the great difference between Schmidt’s model and the authors’ one is that in Adam’s World the social aspect is missing (Adam live alone in his world), while in the evacuation model social aspects can significantly affect the individual’s decisions. Upstream of the evacuation model, a weighted analysis needs to be considered, in fact the individual has to operate different choices considering several aspects, like health or goods preservation, familiar aspects, panic and so on. For this reason a suitable methodology has been detected: the Analytic Hierarchic Process (AHP), implemented by the American mathematician Thomas Saaty, which introduced this technique for Multi-Criteria Analysis. After the considerations on the individuals behavior based on the results of the analysis, the evacuation model and its results are described and analyzed in the following sections and, in the final part of the paper, a description of a 3-D tunnel model devoted to study in particular smoke dynamics is provided, thus it is possible to evaluate the impact of the smoke on the flow of the people escaping from the tunnel

Emotions on agent based simulators for group formation

Time and space consuming are key factors in a meeting, and therefore must be object of consideration in any process of socialization. So, group decision simulation could be a valuable training tool, through which it will be possible to create and test virtual group decision scenarios. In this work we propose a multi-agent simulator of group decision making that models the participant cortex by considering its emotional states and the exchange of arguments among them.Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia (FCT) - ArgEmotionAgents Project (POSI/EIA/56259/2004)

Using agent-based modelling and simulation to model performance measurement in healthcare

One of the priority areas of the UK healthcare system is urgent and emergency care, especially accident and emergency departments (A&E departments). Currently, there is much interest in studying the unintended consequences of the current UK healthcare performance system. Simulation modelling has been proved to be a useful tool for modelling different aspects of the healthcare systems, particularly those related to the performance of A&E departments. Most of the available literature on modelling A&E departments focus on supporting operational decision-making and planning in specific healthcare units to study particular problems such as staff scheduling, resource utilisation, and waiting time issues. That is, most simulation studies focus on analysing how different configurations of healthcare systems affect their performance. However, to our knowledge, few simulation studies focus on explaining how human behaviour affects the performance of the system, and very few have studied how, in turn, performance targets set for A&E departments affect human behaviour in healthcare systems. Some aspects of human behaviour have been incorporated within existing simulation models, though with limitations. In fact, most studies have aimed to study patients’ behaviour, and few have included some aspects of the behaviour of clinical staff. Here we consider how to model clinician behaviour in relation to the performance of A&E departments. This thesis presents an exploratory study of the use of agent-based modelling and simulation (ABMS) and discrete event simulation (DES) to demonstrate how to model clinician behaviour within an A&E department and how that behaviour is related to waiting time performance. Clinical behaviour, incorporated in the simulation models developed here, employs a framework called PECS that assumes that behaviour is influenced by Physical (P), Emotional (E), Cognitive (C) and Social (S) factors. A discussion of the advantages and limitations of the use of ABMS and DES to model such behaviour is included. The findings of this research demonstrate that ABMS is well suited to simulate human behaviour in an A&E department. However, it is not explicitly designed to model processes of complex operational and queue-based systems such as accident and emergency departments. In addition, this research work also demonstrates that DES is an adequate tool for modelling A&E’s processes and patient flows, that can, in fact, incorporate different aspects of human behaviour. Furthermore, the process of modelling human behaviour in DES is complex because, though most DES software allows the representation of reactive behaviour, they make it difficult to model other types of human behaviour The main contributions of this thesis are: 1) a comparison and evaluation of how suitable ABMS and DES are for modelling clinical behaviour, 2) an approach to model the relationship between human behaviour and waiting time performance, considering four aspects of human behaviour (physical, emotional, cognitive and social)

Assessment of risks related to agricultural use of sewage sludge, pig and cattle slurry

In April 2017, the Organic Business Development Team released a report with 25 recommendations for the Minister of Environment and Food (Det økologiske erhvervsteam 2017). Among these was a recommendation that organic farmers should have opportunities for utilizing nutrients from treated domestic wastewater for nutrient recycling. A prerequisite for future use of nutrients from treated wastewater is, that quality requirements are met and that application can be explained to (and accepted by) consumers. In partial fulfilment of this, the business team identified a need for a scientific overview of the risks of using nutrients from treated municipal wastewater in relation to other authorized fertilizer sources – e.g. conventional animal manures. Thus, it was assumed that a comparative approach to assess potential risk of using sewage sludge and conventional manures, could usefully inform decision makers in the future regulation of organic farming systems. Dependent on the result of the scientific investigation, the Organic Business Development Team foresaw that Denmark could chose to work to expand Annex 1 of the EU Ecology Regulation, to allow the organic farmers to use nutrients from municipal wastewater or other acceptable derived sludge products. Mobilization of support for this should be done by the Ministry of Environment and Food in collaboration with the Organic Farming Industry. Thus, based on available literature, this report aims at creating an overview of the environmental and human risks associated with application of pig and cattle slurry as well as sewage sludge to agricultural soils. The risk evaluation was performed for the following compound groups: Metals, Chlorophenyls, Dioxins, Furans, Halogenated aliphatic and aromatic hydrocarbons (HAH), Linear alkylbenzenesulfonates (LAS), Polyaromatic hydrocarbons (PAH), Polybrominated diphenyl ethers (PBDE), Polychlorinated biphenyls (PCB), Poly- and perfluorinated alkylated substances (PFAS), Phenols, Phosphate-triesters VII, Phthalates, Polychlorinated naphtalenes (PCN), Polychlorinated alkanes (PCA), Triclosan, Triclocarban, Medicines, Estrogens, Antibiotic resistance genes. Additionally the fertilizer potential of the two nutrient sources was characterized and compared

A Novel Way of Using Simulations to Support Urban Security Operations

The growing importance of security operations in urban terrain has triggered many attempts to address the perceived gaps in the readiness of security forces for this type of combat. One way to tackle the problem is to employ simulation techniques. Simulations are widely used to support both mission rehearsal and mission analysis, but these two applications tend to be seen as distinctly separate. We argue that integrating them in a unified framework can bring significant benefits for end-users. We perform a structured walk-through of such a unified system, in which a novel approach to integration through the behaviour cloning enabled the system to capture the operational knowledge of security experts, which is often difficult to express verbally. This capability emerged as essential for the operation of the integrated system. We also illustrate how the interplay between the system components for the mission analysis and mission rehearsal is realized