Farmers' Subjective Yield Distributions: Calibration and Implications for Crop Insurance Valuation

This paper examines the role of overconfidence in explaining farmer crop insurance purchasing decisions. The authors hypothesize that overconfidence could influence the participation decision and test this hypothesis. The preliminary results indicate that farmers are overconfident; however, the relationship between overconfidence and the insurance use remains uncertain.Risk and Uncertainty,

Overconfidence?

Many studies have shown that people display an apparent overconfidence. In particular, it is common for a majority of people to describe themselves as better-than-average. The literature takes for granted that this better-than-average effect is problematic. We argue, however, that, even accepting these studies on their own terms, there is nothing at all wrong with a strict majority of people rating themselves above the median.Overconfidence, Better than Average, Experiments, Irrationality, Signalling Models

Overconfidence?

Many studies have shown that people display an apparent overconfidence. In particular, it is common for a majority of people to describe themselves as better than average. The literature takes for granted that this better-than-average effect is problematic. We argue, however, that, even accepting these studies completely on their own terms, there is nothing at all wrong with a strict majority of people rating themselves above the median.Overconfidence; Better than Average; Experiments; Irrationality; Signalling Models

Overconfidence?

Many studies have shown that people display an apparent overconfidence. In particular, it is common for a majority of people to describe themselves as better-than-average. The literature takes for granted that this better-than-average is problematic. We argue, however, that, even accepting these studies on their own terms, there is nothing at all wrong with a strict majority of people rating themselves above the median.Overconfidence; Irrationality; Signalling Models; Better than average

Overconfidence Increases Productivity

Recent studies report that productivity increases under tournament reward structures than under piece rate reward structures. We conduct maze-solving experiments under both reward structures and reveal that overconfidence is a significant factor in increasing productivity. Specifically, subjects exhibiting progressively higher degrees of overconfidence solve more mazes. This result shows a positive aspect of overconfidence, which usually has been examined in its negative aspect as an expectation bias.

Overconfidence?

Many studies have shown that people display an apparent overconfidence. In particular, it is common for a majority of people to describe themselves as better than average. The literature takes for granted that this better-than-average effect is problematic. We argue, however, that, even accepting these studies completely on their own terms, there is nothing at all wrong with a strict majority of people rating themselves above the median.Overconfidence; Better than Average; Experimental Economics; Irrationality; Signalling Models