15,974 research outputs found
Modeling reality
Although powerful computers have allowed complex physical and manmade hardware systems to be modeled successfully, we have encountered persistent problems with the reliability of computer models for systems involving human learning, human action, and human organizations. This is not a misfortune; unlike physical and manmade systems, human systems do not operate under a fixed set of laws. The rules governing the actions allowable in the system can be changed without warning at any moment, and can evolve over time. That the governing laws are inherently unpredictable raises serious questions about the reliability of models when applied to human situations. In these domains, computers are better used, not for prediction and planning, but for aiding humans. Examples are systems that help humans speculate about possible futures, offer advice about possible actions in a domain, systems that gather information from the networks, and systems that track and support work flows in organizations
Walking dynamics are symmetric (enough)
Many biological phenomena such as locomotion, circadian cycles, and breathing
are rhythmic in nature and can be modeled as rhythmic dynamical systems.
Dynamical systems modeling often involves neglecting certain characteristics of
a physical system as a modeling convenience. For example, human locomotion is
frequently treated as symmetric about the sagittal plane. In this work, we test
this assumption by examining human walking dynamics around the steady-state
(limit-cycle). Here we adapt statistical cross validation in order to examine
whether there are statistically significant asymmetries, and even if so, test
the consequences of assuming bilateral symmetry anyway. Indeed, we identify
significant asymmetries in the dynamics of human walking, but nevertheless show
that ignoring these asymmetries results in a more consistent and predictive
model. In general, neglecting evident characteristics of a system can be more
than a modeling convenience---it can produce a better model.Comment: Draft submitted to Journal of the Royal Society Interfac
Early Warning Analysis for Social Diffusion Events
There is considerable interest in developing predictive capabilities for
social diffusion processes, for instance to permit early identification of
emerging contentious situations, rapid detection of disease outbreaks, or
accurate forecasting of the ultimate reach of potentially viral ideas or
behaviors. This paper proposes a new approach to this predictive analytics
problem, in which analysis of meso-scale network dynamics is leveraged to
generate useful predictions for complex social phenomena. We begin by deriving
a stochastic hybrid dynamical systems (S-HDS) model for diffusion processes
taking place over social networks with realistic topologies; this modeling
approach is inspired by recent work in biology demonstrating that S-HDS offer a
useful mathematical formalism with which to represent complex, multi-scale
biological network dynamics. We then perform formal stochastic reachability
analysis with this S-HDS model and conclude that the outcomes of social
diffusion processes may depend crucially upon the way the early dynamics of the
process interacts with the underlying network's community structure and
core-periphery structure. This theoretical finding provides the foundations for
developing a machine learning algorithm that enables accurate early warning
analysis for social diffusion events. The utility of the warning algorithm, and
the power of network-based predictive metrics, are demonstrated through an
empirical investigation of the propagation of political memes over social media
networks. Additionally, we illustrate the potential of the approach for
security informatics applications through case studies involving early warning
analysis of large-scale protests events and politically-motivated cyber
attacks
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