Portfolio optimization when risk factors are conditionally varying and heavy tailed

Assumptions about the dynamic and distributional behavior of risk factors are crucial for the construction of optimal portfolios and for risk assessment. Although asset returns are generally characterized by conditionally varying volatilities and fat tails, the normal distribution with constant variance continues to be the standard framework in portfolio management. Here we propose a practical approach to portfolio selection. It takes both the conditionally varying volatility and the fat-tailedness of risk factors explicitly into account, while retaining analytical tractability and ease of implementation. An application to a portfolio of nine German DAX stocks illustrates that the model is strongly favored by the data and that it is practically implementable. Klassifizierung: C13, C32, G11, G14, G18Die Bewertung von Risiken und die optimale Zusammensetzung von Wertpapier-Portfolios hängt insbesondere von den für die Risikofaktoren gemachten Annahmen bezüglich der zugrunde liegenden Dynamik und den Verteilungseigenschaften ab. In der empirischen Finanzmarkt-Analyse ist weitestgehend akzeptiert, daß die Renditen von Finanzmarkt-Zeitreihen zeitvariierende Volatilität (HeteroskedastizitÄat) zeigen und daß die bedingte Verteilung der Renditen von der Normalverteilung abweichende Eigenschaften aufweisen. Insbesondere die Enden der Verteilung weisen eine gegenüber der Normalverteilung höhere Wahrscheinlichkeitsdichte auf ('fat-tails') und häufig ist die beobachtete Verteilung nicht symmetrisch. Trotzdem stellt die Normalverteilungs-Annahme mit konstanter Varianz weiterhin die Basis für den Mittelwert-Varianz Ansatz zur Portfolio-Optimierung dar. In der vorliegenden Studie schlagen wir einen praktikablen Ansatz zur Portfolio-Selektion mit einem Mittelwert-Skalen Ansatz vor, der sowohl die bedingte Heteroskedastizität der Renditen, als auch die von der Normalverteilung abweichenden Eigenschaften zu berücksichtigen in der Lage ist. Wir verwenden dazu eine dem GARCH Modellähnliche Dynamik der Risikofaktoren und verwenden stabile Verteilungen anstelle der Normalverteilung. Dabei gewährleistet das von uns vorgeschlagene Faktor-Modell sowohl gute analytische Eigenschaften und ist darüberhinaus auch einfach zu implementieren. Eine beispielhafte Anwendung des vorgeschlagenen Modells mit neun Aktien aus dem Deutschen Aktienindex veranschaulicht die bessere Anpassung des vorgeschlagenen Modells an die Daten und demonstriert die Anwendbarkeit zum Zwecke der Portfolio-Optimierung

Dynamic Spatial Autoregressive Models with Autoregressive and Heteroskedastic Disturbances

We propose a new class of models specifically tailored for spatio-temporal data analysis. To this end, we generalize the spatial autoregressive model with autoregressive and heteroskedastic disturbances, i.e. SARAR(1,1), by exploiting the recent advancements in Score Driven (SD) models typically used in time series econometrics. In particular, we allow for time-varying spatial autoregressive coefficients as well as time-varying regressor coefficients and cross-sectional standard deviations. We report an extensive Monte Carlo simulation study in order to investigate the finite sample properties of the Maximum Likelihood estimator for the new class of models as well as its flexibility in explaining several dynamic spatial dependence processes. The new proposed class of models are found to be economically preferred by rational investors through an application in portfolio optimization.Comment: 33 pages, 5 figure

Portfolio Optimization wehn Risk Factors are Conditionally Varying and Heavy Tailed

Assumptions about the dynamic and distributional behavior of risk factors are crucial for the construction of optimal portfolios and for risk assessment. Although asset returns are generally characterized by conditionally varying volatilities and fat tails, the normal distribution with constant variance continues to be the standard framework in portfolio management. Here we propose a practical approach to portfolio selection. It takes both the conditionally varying volatility and the fat-tailedness of risk factors explicitly into account, while retaining analytical tractability and ease of implementation. An application to a portfolio of nine German DAX stocks illustrates that the model is strongly favored by the data and that it is practically implementable.Multivariate Stable Distribution, Index Model, Portfolio Optimization, Value-at-Risk, Model Adequacy

The History of the Quantitative Methods in Finance Conference Series. 1992-2007

This report charts the history of the Quantitative Methods in Finance (QMF) conference from its beginning in 1993 to the 15th conference in 2007. It lists alphabetically the 1037 speakers who presented at all 15 conferences and the titles of their papers.

Crude Oil Hedging Strategies Using Dynamic Multivariate GARCH

The paper examines the performance of four multivariate volatility models, namely CCC, VARMA-GARCH, DCC and BEKK, for the crude oil spot and futures returns of two major benchmark international crude oil markets, Brent and WTI, to calculate optimal portfolio weights and optimal hedge ratios, and to suggest a crude oil hedge strategy. The empirical results show that the optimal portfolio weights of all multivariate volatility models for Brent suggest holding futures in larger proportions than spot. For WTI, however, DCC and BEKK suggest holding crude oil futures to spot, but CCC and VARMA-GARCH suggest holding crude oil spot to futures. In addition, the calculated optimal hedge ratios (OHRs) from each multivariate conditional volatility model give the time-varying hedge ratios, and recommend to short in crude oil futures with a high proportion of one dollar long in crude oil spot. Finally, the hedging effectiveness indicates that DCC (BEKK) is the best (worst) model for OHR calculation in terms of reducing the variance of the portfolio.conditional correlations;crude oil prices;hedging strategies;multivariate GARCH;optimal hedge ratio;optimal portfolio weights

A selective overview of nonparametric methods in financial econometrics

This paper gives a brief overview on the nonparametric techniques that are useful for financial econometric problems. The problems include estimation and inferences of instantaneous returns and volatility functions of time-homogeneous and time-dependent diffusion processes, and estimation of transition densities and state price densities. We first briefly describe the problems and then outline main techniques and main results. Some useful probabilistic aspects of diffusion processes are also briefly summarized to facilitate our presentation and applications.Comment: 32 pages include 7 figure

"Crude Oil Hedging Strategies Using Dynamic Multivariate GARCH"

The paper examines the performance of four multivariate volatility models, namely CCC, VARMA-GARCH, DCC and BEKK, for the crude oil spot and futures returns of two major benchmark international crude oil markets, Brent and WTI, to calculate optimal portfolio weights and optimal hedge ratios, and to suggest a crude oil hedge strategy. The empirical results show that the optimal portfolio weights of all multivariate volatility models for Brent suggest holding futures in larger proportions than spot. For WTI, however, DCC and BEKK suggest holding crude oil futures to spot, but CCC and VARMA-GARCH suggest holding crude oil spot to futures. In addition, the calculated optimal hedge ratios (OHRs) from each multivariate conditional volatility model give the time-varying hedge ratios, and recommend to short in crude oil futures with a high proportion of one dollar long in crude oil spot. Finally, the hedging effectiveness indicates that DCC (BEKK) is the best (worst) model for OHR calculation in terms of reducing the variance of the portfolio.

Volatility forecasting

Volatility has been one of the most active and successful areas of research in time series econometrics and economic forecasting in recent decades. This chapter provides a selective survey of the most important theoretical developments and empirical insights to emerge from this burgeoning literature, with a distinct focus on forecasting applications. Volatility is inherently latent, and Section 1 begins with a brief intuitive account of various key volatility concepts. Section 2 then discusses a series of different economic situations in which volatility plays a crucial role, ranging from the use of volatility forecasts in portfolio allocation to density forecasting in risk management. Sections 3, 4 and 5 present a variety of alternative procedures for univariate volatility modeling and forecasting based on the GARCH, stochastic volatility and realized volatility paradigms, respectively. Section 6 extends the discussion to the multivariate problem of forecasting conditional covariances and correlations, and Section 7 discusses volatility forecast evaluation methods in both univariate and multivariate cases. Section 8 concludes briefly. JEL Klassifikation: C10, C53, G1