Method maximizing the spread of influence in directed signed weighted graphs

We propose a new method for maximizing the spread of influence, based on the identification of significant factors of the total energy of a control system. The model of a socio-economic system can be represented in the form of cognitive maps that are directed signed weighted graphs with cause-and-effect relationships and cycles. Identification and selection of target factors and effective control factors of a system is carried out as a solution to the optimal control problem. The influences are determined by the solution to optimization problem of maximizing the objective function, leading to matrix symmetrization. The gear-ratio symmetrization is based on computing the similarity extent of fan-beam structures of the influence spread of vertices v_i and v_j to all other vertices. This approach provides the real computational domain and correctness of solving the optimal control problem. In addition, it does not impose requirements for graphs to be ordering relationships, to have a matrix of special type or to fulfill stability conditions. In this paper, determination of new metrics of vertices, indicating and estimating the extent and the ability to effectively control, are likewise offered. Additionally, we provide experimental results over real cognitive models in support

Using Fuzzy Cognitive Maps (FCMs) to Evaluate the Vulnerabilities with ICT Assets Disposal Policies

Abstract-- This paper evaluates the possible vulnerabilities of ICT assets disposal policies and the associated impact that can affect the SMEs. A poorly implemented policy or unenforced policy is “potentially the weakest link ” in the cyber-security chain. Do SMEs have an idea of vulnerabilities or threats due to assets disposal? In the event of breaches, the SMEs pay for the cost of notifying the concerned stakeholders, compensate affected parties, invest in improved mitigation technologies and also may be subjected to unwarranted public scrutiny. ICT assets at the end-of-useful life span usually have data left on the hard disk drives or storage media, which is a source of data confidentiality vulnerability. SMEs were surveyed in developing economies on their assets disposal policies. The perceived correlations were analyzed using fuzzy cognitive maps (FCMs) to ascertain if any cyber-security vulnerabilities inherent in a particular policy have implications on others. The study endeavored to show that, SMEs ought to have appropriate assets disposal policies in place. Then, these policies ought to be signed off by all stakeholders as a matter of responsibility. By employing the FCM approach with fuzzy matrix operations, the results indicate positive correlations exist amongst the policy constructs. Thus, vulnerabilities with one policy have implications on others

Computational physics of the mind

In the XIX century and earlier such physicists as Newton, Mayer, Hooke, Helmholtz and Mach were actively engaged in the research on psychophysics, trying to relate psychological sensations to intensities of physical stimuli. Computational physics allows to simulate complex neural processes giving a chance to answer not only the original psychophysical questions but also to create models of mind. In this paper several approaches relevant to modeling of mind are outlined. Since direct modeling of the brain functions is rather limited due to the complexity of such models a number of approximations is introduced. The path from the brain, or computational neurosciences, to the mind, or cognitive sciences, is sketched, with emphasis on higher cognitive functions such as memory and consciousness. No fundamental problems in understanding of the mind seem to arise. From computational point of view realistic models require massively parallel architectures

Network Analysis, Creative System Modelling and Decision Support: The NetSyMoD Approach

This paper presents the NetSyMoD approach – where NetSyMod stands for Network Analysis – Creative System Modelling – Decision Support. It represents the outcome of several years of research at FEEM in the field of natural resources management, environmental evaluation and decision-making, within the Natural Resources Management Research Programme. NetSyMoD is a flexible and comprehensive methodological framework, which uses a suite of support tools, aimed at facilitating the involvement of stakeholders or experts in decision-making processes. The main phases envisaged for the process are: (i) the identification of relevant actors, (ii) the analysis of social networks, (iii) the creative system modelling and modelling of the reality being considered (i.e. the local socio-economic and environmental system), and (iv) the analysis of alternative options available for the management of the specific case (e.g. alternative projects, plans, strategies). The strategies for participation are necessarily context-dependent, and thus not all the NetSyMod phases may be needed in every application. Furthermore, the practical solutions for their implementation may significantly differ from one case to another, depending not only on the context, but also on the available resources (human and financial). The various applications of NetSyMoD have nonetheless in common the same approach for problem analysis and communication within a group of actors, based upon the use of creative thinking techniques, the formalisation of human-environment relationships through the DPSIR framework, and the use of multi-criteria analysis through the mDSS software.Social Network, Integrated Analysis, Participatory Modelling, Decision Support

Models and tools for value systems analysis in collaborative environments

Dissertation to obtain the degree of Doctor in Electrical and Computer Engineering, specialization of Collaborative NetworksParticipation in collaborative networks is vital for small and medium-sized enterprises to survive in the current market, bringing them several benefits. However,participation in collaborative networks also involves risks and often consortia fail due to internal conflicts. Conflicts can be originated by different prioritization of values and different perceptions of outcomes. The perception of outcomes is, to some extent, subjective given that it depends on the preferences of the subject and how exchanges are evaluated. Therefore, the establishment of a common Value System or the effort to align the Value Systems of network members can play an important role in the collaboration sustainability. Although the topic of values and values alignment has been studied within the scope of various scientific disciplines, there is still no common understanding on these concepts and the literature does not include any suitable models to formally represent and analyze Value Systems within the scope of collaborative networks. This thesis proposes a set of models and formal mechanisms for specifying and analyzing Value Systems in collaborative networks. The development of models and methods followed a hybrid approach, where qualitative and quantitative techniques are used in order to represent and analyze the Value System. A web application was designed and a prototype developed in order to show that the models and methods proposed can be implemented by a computer program and can be integrated into a single framework in order to support Value Systems management within the scope of collaborative networks. The application of a multifaceted and systematic validation strategy, supported by the “Square Validation Framework” brought together a set of preliminary results that attest the theoretical and practical relevance of the proposed approach and allow us to conclude that: (i) it is possible to define and analyze Value Systems in collaborative networks, considering the economic and sociologic approach, in an integrated and unambiguous way, (ii) the potential impacts between Value Systems in collaborative environments can be inferred if the typical influences among core values are known and the preferences of the actors, regarding those values, are identified; (iii) the identification and assessment of Value Systems misalignments would be improved if qualitative and quantitative assessment methods integrating the notion of shared-values, potential for conflict and positive impacts were developed

Functional Dynamics I : Articulation Process

The articulation process of dynamical networks is studied with a functional map, a minimal model for the dynamic change of relationships through iteration. The model is a dynamical system of a function $f$, not of variables, having a self-reference term $f \circ f$, introduced by recalling that operation in a biological system is often applied to itself, as is typically seen in rules in the natural language or genes. Starting from an inarticulate network, two types of fixed points are formed as an invariant structure with iterations. The function is folded with time, until it has finite or infinite piecewise-flat segments of fixed points, regarded as articulation. For an initial logistic map, attracted functions are classified into step, folded step, fractal, and random phases, according to the degree of folding. Oscillatory dynamics are also found, where function values are mapped to several fixed points periodically. The significance of our results to prototype categorization in language is discussed.Comment: 48 pages, 15 figeres (5 gif files

Anticipation and Risk – From the inverse problem to reverse computation

Abstract. Risk assessment is relevant only if it has predictive relevance. In this sense, the anticipatory perspective has yet to contribute to more adequate predictions. For purely physics-based phenomena, predictions are as good as the science describing such phenomena. For the dynamics of the living, the physics of the matter making up the living is only a partial description of their change over time. The space of possibilities is the missing component, complementary to physics and its associated predictions based on probabilistic methods. The inverse modeling problem, and moreover the reverse computation model guide anticipatory-based predictive methodologies. An experimental setting for the quantification of anticipation is advanced and structural measurement is suggested as a possible mathematics for anticipation-based risk assessment