Anomaly Detection on Graph Time Series

In this paper, we use variational recurrent neural network to investigate the anomaly detection problem on graph time series. The temporal correlation is modeled by the combination of recurrent neural network (RNN) and variational inference (VI), while the spatial information is captured by the graph convolutional network. In order to incorporate external factors, we use feature extractor to augment the transition of latent variables, which can learn the influence of external factors. With the target function as accumulative ELBO, it is easy to extend this model to on-line method. The experimental study on traffic flow data shows the detection capability of the proposed method

Echo State Networks with Self-Normalizing Activations on the Hyper-Sphere

Among the various architectures of Recurrent Neural Networks, Echo State Networks (ESNs) emerged due to their simplified and inexpensive training procedure. These networks are known to be sensitive to the setting of hyper-parameters, which critically affect their behaviour. Results show that their performance is usually maximized in a narrow region of hyper-parameter space called edge of chaos. Finding such a region requires searching in hyper-parameter space in a sensible way: hyper-parameter configurations marginally outside such a region might yield networks exhibiting fully developed chaos, hence producing unreliable computations. The performance gain due to optimizing hyper-parameters can be studied by considering the memory--nonlinearity trade-off, i.e., the fact that increasing the nonlinear behavior of the network degrades its ability to remember past inputs, and vice-versa. In this paper, we propose a model of ESNs that eliminates critical dependence on hyper-parameters, resulting in networks that provably cannot enter a chaotic regime and, at the same time, denotes nonlinear behaviour in phase space characterised by a large memory of past inputs, comparable to the one of linear networks. Our contribution is supported by experiments corroborating our theoretical findings, showing that the proposed model displays dynamics that are rich-enough to approximate many common nonlinear systems used for benchmarking

The Power of Linear Recurrent Neural Networks

Recurrent neural networks are a powerful means to cope with time series. We show how a type of linearly activated recurrent neural networks, which we call predictive neural networks, can approximate any time-dependent function f(t) given by a number of function values. The approximation can effectively be learned by simply solving a linear equation system; no backpropagation or similar methods are needed. Furthermore, the network size can be reduced by taking only most relevant components. Thus, in contrast to others, our approach not only learns network weights but also the network architecture. The networks have interesting properties: They end up in ellipse trajectories in the long run and allow the prediction of further values and compact representations of functions. We demonstrate this by several experiments, among them multiple superimposed oscillators (MSO), robotic soccer, and predicting stock prices. Predictive neural networks outperform the previous state-of-the-art for the MSO task with a minimal number of units.Comment: 22 pages, 14 figures and tables, revised implementatio

Training Input-Output Recurrent Neural Networks through Spectral Methods

We consider the problem of training input-output recurrent neural networks (RNN) for sequence labeling tasks. We propose a novel spectral approach for learning the network parameters. It is based on decomposition of the cross-moment tensor between the output and a non-linear transformation of the input, based on score functions. We guarantee consistent learning with polynomial sample and computational complexity under transparent conditions such as non-degeneracy of model parameters, polynomial activations for the neurons, and a Markovian evolution of the input sequence. We also extend our results to Bidirectional RNN which uses both previous and future information to output the label at each time point, and is employed in many NLP tasks such as POS tagging

Investigation of computational intelligence methods in forecasting at financial markets

The work considers intelligent methods for solving the problem of short- and middle-term forecasting in the financial sphere. LSTM DL networks, GMDH, and hybrid GMDH-neo-fuzzy networks were studied. Neo-fuzzy neurons were chosen as nodes of the hybrid network, which allows to reduce computational costs. The optimal network parameters were found. The synthesis of the optimal structure of hybrid networks was performed. Experimental studies of LSTM, GMDH, and hybrid GMDH-neo-fuzzy networks with optimal parameters for short- and middle-term forecasting have been conducted. The accuracy of the obtained experimental predictions is compared. The forecasting intervals for which the application of the researched artificial intelligence methods is the most expedient have been determined