Deriving a Global Social Accounting Matrix from GTAP version 5 Data

This paper reports a method for converting version 5 of the GTAP database into a global SAM that is stored in GAMS data exchange (GDX) format or in a Header Array (HAR) format. The focus of attention is on the generation of a SAM representation of the GTAP database that is fully consistent with the GTAP model; as such the resultant SAM can be readily used to calibrate a version of the GTAP model that had been coded in GAMS. The GAMS code used to generate the SAM representation of the GTAP database is provided as a GAMS model library – this code has been tested with versions 5.0 and 5.3 of the GTAP database

A Second Look at the 2007-08 Food Price Crisis: Considering the Impact of Endogenous Dynamics on Food Prices

This paper offers an alternative to the conventional explanation of the 2007-08 food price crisis in terms of escalating demand or dwindling supply. Instead, its focus is on the legal-institutional structure of commodity futures markets, which has witnessed a drastic alteration in the role of speculators. These have transformed from “market makers” (that keep commodity futures markets liquid by arbitraging on price fluctuations) to "market breakers". Index speculation, in particular, has had the effect of muddling information about market "fundamentals" because of the need – brought about by commodity index swaps – for swap dealers to hedge the fluctuations of an index of commodity prices by opening and periodically rolling over long-only positions. This periodical rollover to comply with contractual obligations, rather than in response to anticipated fluctuations in the availability of a commodity in the future, can induce a "contango bias" in the commodity futures market that, in turn, might have given the wrong signals to market operators, leading to a condition of induced (rather than pre-existing) scarcity and to an increase in spot prices in the 2007-08 crisis

A model of financialization of commodities

We analyze how institutional investors entering commodity futures markets, referred to as the financialization of commodities, affect commodity prices. Institutional investors care about their performance relative to a commodity index. We find that all commodity futures prices, volatilities, and correlations go up with financialization, but more so for index futures than for nonindex futures. The equity-commodity correlations also increase. We demonstrate how financial markets transmit shocks not only to futures prices but also to commodity spot prices and inventories. Spot prices go up with financialization, and shocks to any index commodity spill over to all storable commodity prices

(WP 2011-07) Factoring Emerging Markets into the Relationship Between Global Liquidity and Commodities

What caused the mid-2000s world commodity price “bubble” and the recent commodity price growth during the economic recovery after the 2007-2009 recession? The classical “supply and demand” interpretation offered by some observers suggests that rapid global industrial growth over the past decade – the so-called “demand channel” – is the key driver of price growth. Others have argued that recent bouts of commodity price growth were directly related to central banks, especially the U.S. Federal Reserve, injecting too much money or “liquidity” into the financial system. They assert that high commodity prices are a result of excessively loose monetary policy. This paper extends the current research in this area by incorporating emerging economies, the BRIC (Brazil, Russia, India, and China) nations specifically, into global measures. It is hypothesized that factoring BRIC nations into the analysis provides useful information for examining the relationship between commodity prices and global liquidity that is not captured by advanced country data alone. The statistical model in this paper accounts for the two-way relationships that can exist between output, price, and monetary variables in a globally interconnected system. Various tests of the model consistently suggest that the “demand channel” plays a large part in explaining commodity price growth whether BRIC countries are included or excluded from the analysis. However, excess liquidity may also play a part in explaining price growth. In addition, factoring in BRIC country data leads to the conclusion that unexpected movements in liquidity eventually explain more of the variation in commodity prices than unexpected demand shocks. This specific result is not caught in the sample that only incorporates advanced economies. Therefore, policymakers and researchers should not ignore emerging markets when examining commodity prices and monetary factors in a global context. Studies that exclude these countries lose key information on the effects of global monetary fluctuations

Argentine Agricultural Policy: Producer and Consumer Support. Estimates 2007-2012

This paper analyzes agricultural policy in Argentina and calculates the degree of support received by producers and consumers. We present a summary of developments in the agricultural policy environment that have occurred in the last decades in Argentina, as well as the resulting performance of the agricultural sector. The concepts of Producer Support Estimates, Consumer Support Estimates, General Services Support Estimates, Producer Nominal Assistance Coefficient and Nominal Protection Coefficient are used to analyse different dimensions of transfers occurring between agricultural producers, consumers and taxpayers in the period 2007-2012. Total transfers from producers have averaged US$ 11.000 million annually or 26% of total gross farm receipts. Support flowing from the public sector to producers in the form of R&D, infrastructure and other “public good” type of inputs totalize some 500 million annually.Fil: Gallacher, Guillermo Marcos. Universidad del Cema; Argentina. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas; ArgentinaFil: Lema, Daniel. Universidad del Cema; Argentina. Instituto Nacional de Tecnología Agropecuaria; Argentin

Household energy demand and the equity and efficiency aspects of subsidy reform in Indonesia

The proper design of price interventions in energy markets requires consideration of equity and efficiency effects. In this paper, budget survey data from 29,000 Indonesian households are used to estimate a demand system for five energy sources, which is identified by the spatial variation in unit values (expenditures divided by quantities). We correct for the various quality and measurement error biases that result when unit values are used as proxies for market prices. The price elasticities are combined with tax and subsidy rates to calculate the marginal social cost of price changes for each item. The results suggest that even with high levels of inequality aversion there is a case for reducing the large subsidies on kerosene in Indonesia, supporting the reforms that have been announced recently

Multifractal Properties of Price Fluctuations of Stocks and Commodities

We analyze daily prices of 29 commodities and 2449 stocks, each over a period of $\approx 15$ years. We find that the price fluctuations for commodities have a significantly broader multifractal spectrum than for stocks. We also propose that multifractal properties of both stocks and commodities can be attributed mainly to the broad probability distribution of price fluctuations and secondarily to their temporal organization. Furthermore, we propose that, for commodities, stronger higher order correlations in price fluctuations result in broader multifractal spectra.Comment: Published in Euro Physics Letters (14 pages, 5 figures