Bayesian and regularization approaches to multivariable linear system identification: the role of rank penalties

Recent developments in linear system identification have proposed the use of non-parameteric methods, relying on regularization strategies, to handle the so-called bias/variance trade-off. This paper introduces an impulse response estimator which relies on an $\ell_2$-type regularization including a rank-penalty derived using the log-det heuristic as a smooth approximation to the rank function. This allows to account for different properties of the estimated impulse response (e.g. smoothness and stability) while also penalizing high-complexity models. This also allows to account and enforce coupling between different input-output channels in MIMO systems. According to the Bayesian paradigm, the parameters defining the relative weight of the two regularization terms as well as the structure of the rank penalty are estimated optimizing the marginal likelihood. Once these hyperameters have been estimated, the impulse response estimate is available in closed form. Experiments show that the proposed method is superior to the estimator relying on the "classic" $\ell_2$-regularization alone as well as those based in atomic and nuclear norm.Comment: to appear in IEEE Conference on Decision and Control, 201

Linear system identification using stable spline kernels and PLQ penalties

The classical approach to linear system identification is given by parametric Prediction Error Methods (PEM). In this context, model complexity is often unknown so that a model order selection step is needed to suitably trade-off bias and variance. Recently, a different approach to linear system identification has been introduced, where model order determination is avoided by using a regularized least squares framework. In particular, the penalty term on the impulse response is defined by so called stable spline kernels. They embed information on regularity and BIBO stability, and depend on a small number of parameters which can be estimated from data. In this paper, we provide new nonsmooth formulations of the stable spline estimator. In particular, we consider linear system identification problems in a very broad context, where regularization functionals and data misfits can come from a rich set of piecewise linear quadratic functions. Moreover, our anal- ysis includes polyhedral inequality constraints on the unknown impulse response. For any formulation in this class, we show that interior point methods can be used to solve the system identification problem, with complexity O(n3)+O(mn2) in each iteration, where n and m are the number of impulse response coefficients and measurements, respectively. The usefulness of the framework is illustrated via a numerical experiment where output measurements are contaminated by outliers.Comment: 8 pages, 2 figure

Variational message passing for online polynomial NARMAX identification

We propose a variational Bayesian inference procedure for online nonlinear system identification. For each output observation, a set of parameter posterior distributions is updated, which is then used to form a posterior predictive distribution for future outputs. We focus on the class of polynomial NARMAX models, which we cast into probabilistic form and represent in terms of a Forney-style factor graph. Inference in this graph is efficiently performed by a variational message passing algorithm. We show empirically that our variational Bayesian estimator outperforms an online recursive least-squares estimator, most notably in small sample size settings and low noise regimes, and performs on par with an iterative least-squares estimator trained offline.Comment: 6 pages, 4 figures. Accepted to the American Control Conference 202

Maximum Entropy Vector Kernels for MIMO system identification

Recent contributions have framed linear system identification as a nonparametric regularized inverse problem. Relying on $\ell_2$-type regularization which accounts for the stability and smoothness of the impulse response to be estimated, these approaches have been shown to be competitive w.r.t classical parametric methods. In this paper, adopting Maximum Entropy arguments, we derive a new $\ell_2$ penalty deriving from a vector-valued kernel; to do so we exploit the structure of the Hankel matrix, thus controlling at the same time complexity, measured by the McMillan degree, stability and smoothness of the identified models. As a special case we recover the nuclear norm penalty on the squared block Hankel matrix. In contrast with previous literature on reweighted nuclear norm penalties, our kernel is described by a small number of hyper-parameters, which are iteratively updated through marginal likelihood maximization; constraining the structure of the kernel acts as a (hyper)regularizer which helps controlling the effective degrees of freedom of our estimator. To optimize the marginal likelihood we adapt a Scaled Gradient Projection (SGP) algorithm which is proved to be significantly computationally cheaper than other first and second order off-the-shelf optimization methods. The paper also contains an extensive comparison with many state-of-the-art methods on several Monte-Carlo studies, which confirms the effectiveness of our procedure

Probabilistic Models for Droughts: Applications in Trigger Identification, Predictor Selection and Index Development

The current practice of drought declaration (US Drought Monitor) provides a hard classification of droughts using various hydrologic variables. However, this method does not yield model uncertainty, and is very limited for forecasting upcoming droughts. The primary goal of this thesis is to develop and implement methods that incorporate uncertainty estimation into drought characterization, thereby enabling more informed and better decision making by water users and managers. Probabilistic models using hydrologic variables are developed, yielding new insights into drought characterization enabling fundamental applications in droughts

Semi-physical neural modeling for linear signal restoration

International audienceThis paper deals with the design methodology of an Inverse Neural Network (INN) model. The basic idea is to carry out a semi-physical model gathering two types of information: the a priori knowledge of the deterministic rules which govern the studied system and the observation of the actual conduct of this system obtained from experimental data. This hybrid model is elaborated by being inspired by the mechanisms of a neuromimetic network whose structure is constrained by the discrete reverse-time state-space equations. In order to validate the approach, some tests are performed on two dynamic models. The first suggested model is a dynamic system characterized by an unspecified r-order Ordinary Differential Equation (ODE). The second one concerns in particular the mass balance equation for a dispersion phenomenon governed by a Partial Differential Equation (PDE) discretized on a basic mesh. The performances are numerically analyzed in terms of generalization, regularization and training effort