Unpacking the Allee effect: determining individual-level mechanisms that drive global population dynamics

We present a solid theoretical foundation for interpreting the origin of Allee effects by providing the missing link in understanding how local individual-based mechanisms translate to global population dynamics. Allee effects were originally proposed to describe population dynamics that cannot be explained by exponential and logistic growth models. However, standard methods often calibrate Allee effect models to match observed global population dynamics without providing any mechanistic insight. By introducing a stochastic individual-based model, with proliferation, death and motility rates that depend on local density, we present a modelling framework that translates particular global Allee effects to specific individual-based mechanisms. Using data from ecology and cell biology, we unpack individual-level mechanisms implicit in an Allee effect model and provide simulation tools for others to repeat this analysis

General population growth models with Allee effects in a random environment

Allee effects on population growth are quite common in nature, usually studied through deterministic models with a specific growth rate function. In order to seek the qualitative behaviour of populations induced by such effects, one should avoid model-specific behaviours. So, we use as a basis a general deterministic model, i.e. a model with a general growth rate function, to which we add the effect on the growth rate of the random fluctuations in environmental conditions. The resulting model is the general stochastic differential equation (SDE) model that we propose here. We consider two possible cases, weak Allee effects and strong Allee effects, which lead to different qualitative behaviours of the model. We will study the model properties for both cases in terms of existence and uniqueness of the solution, extinction and stationary behaviour of the population. The two cases will be compared with each other and with the general density-dependent SDE model without Allee effects. We then consider as an example the particular case of the classic logistic model and an Allee effect version of it.FC

STOCHASTIC ANALYSIS OF THE RICKER POPULATION MODEL WITH IMMIGRATION AND ALLEE EFFECT

We study an impact of the immigration on population dynamics of the Ricker model with Allee effect. Both deterministic and stochastic cases of the model are considered.Исследование выполнено при поддержке РНФ (грант 16-11-10098)

Analysis of stochastic phenomena in Ricker-type population model with delay

A phenomenon of the noiseinduced extinction is studied on the base of the conceptual Rickertype model with the delay and Allee effect. This nonlinear discrete population model exhibits the persistence with the different form of attractors, both regular and chaotic. For this model, the persistence zones are defined by points of the crisis bifurcations. The phenomenon of the noiseinduced extinction is investigated with the help of direct numerical simulations and by the semianalytical new method based on the stochastic sensitivity functions. In the stochastic analysis, a geometrical approach taking into account a mutual arrangement of the confidence domains and basins of attraction is used. © 2017 Author(s).The work was supported by Russian Science Foundation (grant No 16-11-10098)

Pushed beyond the brink: Allee effects, environmental stochasticity, and extinction

A demographic Allee effect occurs when individual fitness, at low densities, increases with population density. Coupled with environmental fluctuations in demographic rates, Allee effects can have subtle effects on population persistence and extinction. To understand the interplay between these deterministic and stochastic forces, we analyze discrete-time single species models allowing for general forms of density-dependent feedbacks and stochastic fluctuations in demographic rates. Our analysis provide criteria for stochastic persistence, asymptotic extinction, and conditional persistence. Stochastic persistence requires that the geometric mean of fitness at low densities is greater than one. When this geometric mean is less than one, asymptotic extinction occurs with a high probability whenever the initial population density is low. If in addition the population only experiences positive density-dependent feedbacks, conditional persistence occurs provided the geometric mean of fitness at high population densities is greater than one. However, if the population experiences both positive and negative density-dependent feedbacks, conditional persistence is only possible if fluctuations in demographic rates are sufficiently small. Applying our results to stochastic models of mate-limitation, we illustrate counter-intuitively that the environmental fluctuations can increase the probability of persistence when populations are initially at low densities, and decrease the likelihood of persistence when populations are initially at high densities. Alternatively, for stochastic models accounting for predator saturation and negative density-dependence, environmental stochasticity can result in asymptotic extinction at intermediate predation rates despite conditional persistence occurring at higher predation rates.Comment: 19 pages, 3 figure