Information Aggregation in Exponential Family Markets

We consider the design of prediction market mechanisms known as automated market makers. We show that we can design these mechanisms via the mold of \emph{exponential family distributions}, a popular and well-studied probability distribution template used in statistics. We give a full development of this relationship and explore a range of benefits. We draw connections between the information aggregation of market prices and the belief aggregation of learning agents that rely on exponential family distributions. We develop a very natural analysis of the market behavior as well as the price equilibrium under the assumption that the traders exhibit risk aversion according to exponential utility. We also consider similar aspects under alternative models, such as when traders are budget constrained

Editors' Summary

macroeconomics, editorial

Heavy-Tailed Features and Empirical Analysis of the Limit Order Book Volume Profiles in Futures Markets

This paper poses a few fundamental questions regarding the attributes of the volume profile of a Limit Order Books stochastic structure by taking into consideration aspects of intraday and interday statistical features, the impact of different exchange features and the impact of market participants in different asset sectors. This paper aims to address the following questions: 1. Is there statistical evidence that heavy-tailed sub-exponential volume profiles occur at different levels of the Limit Order Book on the bid and ask and if so does this happen on intra or interday time scales ? 2.In futures exchanges, are heavy tail features exchange (CBOT, CME, EUREX, SGX and COMEX) or asset class (government bonds, equities and precious metals) dependent and do they happen on ultra-high (<1sec) or mid-range (1sec -10min) high frequency data? 3.Does the presence of stochastic heavy-tailed volume profile features evolve in a manner that would inform or be indicative of market participant behaviors, such as high frequency algorithmic trading, quote stuffing and price discovery intra-daily? 4. Is there statistical evidence for a need to consider dynamic behavior of the parameters of models for Limit Order Book volume profiles on an intra-daily time scale ? Progress on aspects of each question is obtained via statistically rigorous results to verify the empirical findings for an unprecedentedly large set of futures market LOB data. The data comprises several exchanges, several futures asset classes and all trading days of 2010, using market depth (Type II) order book data to 5 levels on the bid and ask

Personal Foul: How Head Trauma and the Insurance Industry Are Threatening Sports

This thesis will investigate the growing problem of head trauma in contact sports like football, hockey, and soccer through medical studies, implications to the insurance industry, and ongoing litigation. The thesis will investigate medical studies that are finding more evidence to support the claim that contact sports players are more likely to receive head trauma symptoms such as memory loss, mood swings, and even Lou Gehrig’s disease in extreme cases. The thesis will also demonstrate that these medical symptoms and monetary losses from medical claims are convincing insurance companies to withdraw insurance coverage for sports leagues, which they are justifying through mathematics. Finally, the thesis will explore the ongoing litigation against sports leagues for alleged negligence against their players and their failure to communicate the sports’ dangers to their player

Child Support and Partnership Dissolution: Evidence from the UK

This paper studies the determinants of partnership dissolution and focuses on the role of child support. We exploit the variation in child support liabilities driven by an important UK policy reform to separately identify the effects of children from the effect of child support liability. We find strong evidence that an increase in the child support liability significantly reduces dissolution risk. Our results suggest that child support criteria that are based on the non-custodial parent’s income, compared to criteria based on aggregate incomes of both parents, would imply much smaller separation rates

Child support liability and partnership dissolution

This paper studies the determinants of partnership dissolution and focuses on the role of child support. We exploit the variation in child support liabilities driven by an important UK policy reform to separately identify the effects of children from the effect of child support liability. We find strong evidence that an increase in the child support liability significantly reduces dissolution risk. Our results suggest that child support criteria that are based on the non-custodial parent's income, compared to criteria based on aggregate incomes of both parents, would imply much smaller separation rates.