1,585 research outputs found
Bayesian control of the number of servers in a GI/M/c queuing system
In this paper we consider the problem of designing a GI/M/c queueing system. Given arrival and service data, our objective is to choose the optimal number of servers so as to minimize an expected cost function which depends on quantities, such as the number of customers in the queue. A semiparametric approach based on Erlang mixture distributions is used to model the general interarrival time distribution. Given the sample data, Bayesian Markov chain Monte Carlo methods are used to estimate the system parameters and the predictive distributions of the usual performance measures. We can then use these estimates to minimize the steady-state expected total cost rate as a function of the control parameter c. We provide a numerical example based on real data obtained from a bank in Madrid
Transient bayesian inference for short and long-tailed GI/G/1 queueing systems
In this paper, we describe how to make Bayesian inference for the transient behaviour and busy period in a single server system with general and unknown distribution for the service and interarrival time. The dense family of Coxian distributions is used for the service and arrival process to the system. This distribution model is reparametrized such that it is possible to define a non-informative prior which allows for the approximation of heavytailed distributions. Reversible jump Markov chain Monte Carlo methods are used to estimate the predictive distribution of the interarrival and service time. Our procedure for estimating the system measures is based in recent results for known parameters which are frequently implemented by using symbolical packages. Alternatively, we propose a simple numerical technique that can be performed for every MCMC iteration so that we can estimate interesting measures, such as the transient queue length distribution. We illustrate our approach with simulated and real queues
BAYESIAN CONTROL OF THE NUMBER OF SERVERS IN A GI/M/C QUEUING SYSTEM
In this paper we consider the problem of designing a GI/M/c queueing system. Given arrival and service data, our objective is to choose the optimal number of servers so as to minimize an expected cost function which depends on quantities, such as the number of customers in the queue. A semiparametric approach based on Erlang mixture distributions is used to model the general interarrival time distribution. Given the sample data, Bayesian Markov chain Monte Carlo methods are used to estimate the system parameters and the predictive distributions of the usual performance measures. We can then use these estimates to minimize the steady-state expected total cost rate as a function of the control parameter c. We provide a numerical example based on real data obtained from a bank in Madrid.
Bayesian inference for queueing networks and modeling of internet services
Modern Internet services, such as those at Google, Yahoo!, and Amazon, handle
billions of requests per day on clusters of thousands of computers. Because
these services operate under strict performance requirements, a statistical
understanding of their performance is of great practical interest. Such
services are modeled by networks of queues, where each queue models one of the
computers in the system. A key challenge is that the data are incomplete,
because recording detailed information about every request to a heavily used
system can require unacceptable overhead. In this paper we develop a Bayesian
perspective on queueing models in which the arrival and departure times that
are not observed are treated as latent variables. Underlying this viewpoint is
the observation that a queueing model defines a deterministic transformation
between the data and a set of independent variables called the service times.
With this viewpoint in hand, we sample from the posterior distribution over
missing data and model parameters using Markov chain Monte Carlo. We evaluate
our framework on data from a benchmark Web application. We also present a
simple technique for selection among nested queueing models. We are unaware of
any previous work that considers inference in networks of queues in the
presence of missing data.Comment: Published in at http://dx.doi.org/10.1214/10-AOAS392 the Annals of
Applied Statistics (http://www.imstat.org/aoas/) by the Institute of
Mathematical Statistics (http://www.imstat.org
TRANSIENT BAYESIAN INFERENCE FOR SHORT AND LONG-TAILED GI/G/1 QUEUEING SYSTEMS
In this paper, we describe how to make Bayesian inference for the transient behaviour and busy period in a single server system with general and unknown distribution for the service and interarrival time. The dense family of Coxian distributions is used for the service and arrival process to the system. This distribution model is reparametrized such that it is possible to define a non-informative prior which allows for the approximation of heavytailed distributions. Reversible jump Markov chain Monte Carlo methods are used to estimate the predictive distribution of the interarrival and service time. Our procedure for estimating the system measures is based in recent results for known parameters which are frequently implemented by using symbolical packages. Alternatively, we propose a simple numerical technique that can be performed for every MCMC iteration so that we can estimate interesting measures, such as the transient queue length distribution. We illustrate our approach with simulated and real queues.
Estimating customer impatience in a service system with unobserved balking
This paper studies a service system in which arriving customers are provided
with information about the delay they will experience. Based on this
information they decide to wait for service or to leave the system. The main
objective is to estimate the customers' patience-level distribution and the
corresponding potential arrival rate, using knowledge of the actual
queue-length process only. The main complication, and distinguishing feature of
our setup, lies in the fact that customers who decide not to join are not
observed, but, remarkably, we manage to devise a procedure to estimate the load
they would generate. We express our system in terms of a multi-server queue
with a Poisson stream of customers, which allows us to evaluate the
corresponding likelihood function. Estimating the unknown parameters relying on
a maximum likelihood procedure, we prove strong consistency and derive the
asymptotic distribution of the estimation error. Several applications and
extensions of the method are discussed. The performance of our approach is
further assessed through a series of numerical experiments. By fitting
parameters of hyperexponential and generalized-hyperexponential distributions
our method provides a robust estimation framework for any continuous
patience-level distribution
Need a Lift? An Elevator Queueing Problem
Various aspects of the behavior and dispatching of elevators (lifts) were studied. Monte Carlo simulation was used to study the statistics of the several models for the peak demand at uppeak times. Analytical models problems were used to prove or disprove whether schemes were optimal. A mostly integer programming problem was formulated but not studied further
- …