Interpretable statistics for complex modelling: quantile and topological learning

As the complexity of our data increased exponentially in the last decades, so has our need for interpretable features. This thesis revolves around two paradigms to approach this quest for insights. In the first part we focus on parametric models, where the problem of interpretability can be seen as a “parametrization selection”. We introduce a quantile-centric parametrization and we show the advantages of our proposal in the context of regression, where it allows to bridge the gap between classical generalized linear (mixed) models and increasingly popular quantile methods. The second part of the thesis, concerned with topological learning, tackles the problem from a non-parametric perspective. As topology can be thought of as a way of characterizing data in terms of their connectivity structure, it allows to represent complex and possibly high dimensional through few features, such as the number of connected components, loops and voids. We illustrate how the emerging branch of statistics devoted to recovering topological structures in the data, Topological Data Analysis, can be exploited both for exploratory and inferential purposes with a special emphasis on kernels that preserve the topological information in the data. Finally, we show with an application how these two approaches can borrow strength from one another in the identification and description of brain activity through fMRI data from the ABIDE project

A new class of wavelet networks for nonlinear system identification

A new class of wavelet networks (WNs) is proposed for nonlinear system identification. In the new networks, the model structure for a high-dimensional system is chosen to be a superimposition of a number of functions with fewer variables. By expanding each function using truncated wavelet decompositions, the multivariate nonlinear networks can be converted into linear-in-the-parameter regressions, which can be solved using least-squares type methods. An efficient model term selection approach based upon a forward orthogonal least squares (OLS) algorithm and the error reduction ratio (ERR) is applied to solve the linear-in-the-parameters problem in the present study. The main advantage of the new WN is that it exploits the attractive features of multiscale wavelet decompositions and the capability of traditional neural networks. By adopting the analysis of variance (ANOVA) expansion, WNs can now handle nonlinear identification problems in high dimensions

Theoretical Interpretations and Applications of Radial Basis Function Networks

Medical applications usually used Radial Basis Function Networks just as Artificial Neural Networks. However, RBFNs are Knowledge-Based Networks that can be interpreted in several way: Artificial Neural Networks, Regularization Networks, Support Vector Machines, Wavelet Networks, Fuzzy Controllers, Kernel Estimators, Instanced-Based Learners. A survey of their interpretations and of their corresponding learning algorithms is provided as well as a brief survey on dynamic learning algorithms. RBFNs' interpretations can suggest applications that are particularly interesting in medical domains

Suboptimal solutions to network team optimization problems

Smoothness of the solutions to network team optimization problems with statistical information structure is investigated. Suboptimal solutions expressed as linear combinations of elements from sets of basis functions containing adjustable parameters are considered. Estimates of their accuracy are derived, for basis functions represented by sinusoids with variable frequencies and phases and Gaussians with variable centers and widthss

Adaptive traffic signal control using approximate dynamic programming

This paper presents a study on an adaptive traffic signal controller for real-time operation. The controller aims for three operational objectives: dynamic allocation of green time, automatic adjustment to control parameters, and fast revision of signal plans. The control algorithm is built on approximate dynamic programming (ADP). This approach substantially reduces computational burden by using an approximation to the value function of the dynamic programming and reinforcement learning to update the approximation. We investigate temporal-difference learning and perturbation learning as specific learning techniques for the ADP approach. We find in computer simulation that the ADP controllers achieve substantial reduction in vehicle delays in comparison with optimised fixed-time plans. Our results show that substantial benefits can be gained by increasing the frequency at which the signal plans are revised, which can be achieved conveniently using the ADP approach