Network Analysis, Creative System Modelling and Decision Support: The NetSyMoD Approach

This paper presents the NetSyMoD approach – where NetSyMod stands for Network Analysis – Creative System Modelling – Decision Support. It represents the outcome of several years of research at FEEM in the field of natural resources management, environmental evaluation and decision-making, within the Natural Resources Management Research Programme. NetSyMoD is a flexible and comprehensive methodological framework, which uses a suite of support tools, aimed at facilitating the involvement of stakeholders or experts in decision-making processes. The main phases envisaged for the process are: (i) the identification of relevant actors, (ii) the analysis of social networks, (iii) the creative system modelling and modelling of the reality being considered (i.e. the local socio-economic and environmental system), and (iv) the analysis of alternative options available for the management of the specific case (e.g. alternative projects, plans, strategies). The strategies for participation are necessarily context-dependent, and thus not all the NetSyMod phases may be needed in every application. Furthermore, the practical solutions for their implementation may significantly differ from one case to another, depending not only on the context, but also on the available resources (human and financial). The various applications of NetSyMoD have nonetheless in common the same approach for problem analysis and communication within a group of actors, based upon the use of creative thinking techniques, the formalisation of human-environment relationships through the DPSIR framework, and the use of multi-criteria analysis through the mDSS software.Social Network, Integrated Analysis, Participatory Modelling, Decision Support

Participatory Approach in Decision Making Processes for Water Resources Management in the Mediterranean Basin

This paper deals with the comparative analysis of different policy options for water resources management in three south-eastern Mediterranean countries. The applied methodology follows a participatory approach throughout its implementation and is supported by the use of three different software packages dealing with water allocation budget, water quality simulation, and Multi Criteria Analysis, respectively. The paper briefly describes the general objectives of the SMART project and then presents the three local case studies, the valuation objectives and the applied methodology - developed as a general replicable framework suitable for implementation in other decision-making processes. All the steps needed for a correct implementation are therefore described. Following the conceptualisation of the problem, the choice of the appropriate indicators as well as the calculation of their weighting and value functions are detailed. The paper concludes with the results of the Multi Criteria and the related Sensitivity Analyses performed, showing how the different policy responses under consideration can be assessed and furthermore compared through case studies thanks to their relative performances. The adopted methodology was found to be an effective operational approach for bridging scientific modelling and policy making by integrating the model outputs in a conceptual framework that can be understood and utilised by non experts, thus showing concrete potential for participatory decision making.Scientific Advice, Policy-Making, Participatory Modelling, Decision Support

Willingness to Pay for Agricultural Environmental Safety: Evidence from a Survey of Milan, Italy, Residents

The widespread use of pesticides in agriculture provides a particularly complex pattern of multidimensional negative side-effects, ranging from food safety related effects to the deterioration of farmland ecosystems. The assessment of the economic implications of such negative processes is fraught with many uncertainties. This paper presents results of an empirical study recently conducted in the North of Italy aimed at estimating the value of reducing the multiple impacts of pesticide use. A statistical technique known as conjoint choice experiment is used here in combination with contingent valuation techniques. The experimental design of choice modelling provides a natural tool to attach a monetary value to negative environmental effects associated with agrochemicals use. In particular, the paper addresses the reduction of farmland biodiversity, groundwater contamination and human intoxication. The resulting estimates show that, on average, respondents are prone to accept substantial willingness to pay premia for agricultural goods (in particular, foodstuff) produced in environmentally benign ways.Pesticide risks, Food safety, Willingness-to-pay, Choice modeling, Contingent valuation

MCDA for sustainability assessment – insights to Helmholtz Association activities

The "MCDA for sustainability assessment – insights to Helmholtz Association activities" Working Paper aims to compile and reflect previous and on-going work within the Helmholtz Association related to MCDA, in particular, to present use cases and key methodological aspects. It has a focus on but is not limited to energy technologies and systems and is mainly based on the presentations held at the online workshop “Multi criteria decision analysis for sustainability assessment of energy technologies and systems”. The workshop was organized within the activities of the Helmholtz program ESD Topic 1 "Energy System Transformation" and took place on November 22nd, 2021

MCDM approach for planning a sustainable livestock enterprise

Beside the livestock activity provides excellent nutritional ingredients for the human diet, growing conflict among stakeholders are caused by the sharing of the property rights about the environment. Traditionally livestock management was focused on profit maximization related to scale economies, however an increasing number of stakeholders are concerned about the negative side effect of environmental externalities and solicit to adopt sustainable technologies to curb the natural resource depletion, soil and water pollution, gaseous emissions and others. Purpose of this paper is to introduce a revisited multi-criteria decision making approach based on solid theoretical fundaments to produce sustainable solutions to achieve economic, social and environmental objectives

The SIPHER consortium : introducing the new UK hub for systems science in public health and health economic research

The conditions in which we are born, grow, live, work and age are key drivers of health and inequalities in life chances. To maximise health and wellbeing across the whole population, we need well-coordinated action across government sectors, in areas including economic, education, welfare, labour market and housing policy. Current research struggles to offer effective decision support on the cross-sector strategic alignment of policies, and to generate evidence that gives budget holders the confidence to change the way major investment decisions are made. This open letter introduces a new research initiative in this space. The SIPHER (Systems Science in Public Health and Health Economics Research) Consortium brings together a multi-disciplinary group of scientists from across six universities, three government partners at local, regional and national level, and ten practice partner organisations. The Consortium’s vision is a shift from health policy to healthy public policy, where the wellbeing impacts of policies are a core consideration across government sectors. Researchers and policy makers will jointly tackle fundamental questions about: a) the complex causal relationships between upstream policies and wellbeing, economic and equality outcomes; b) the multi-sectoral appraisal of costs and benefits of alternative investment options; c) public values and preferences for different outcomes, and how necessary trade-offs can be negotiated; and d) creating the conditions for intelligence-led adaptive policy design that maximises progress against economic, social and health goals. Whilst our methods will be adaptable across policy topics and jurisdictions, we will initially focus on four policy areas: Inclusive Economic Growth, Adverse Childhood Experiences, Mental Wellbeing and Housing

Recreational, Cultural and Aesthetic Services from Estuarine and Coastal Ecosystems

The role of economic analysis in guiding the sustainable development of estuarine and coastal ecosystems is investigated based on a comprehensive review of the literature on the valuation of the recreation, cultural and aesthetic services. The implications of the findings for the sustainable management of coral reefs, Marine Protected Areas, and Small Island Developing States are discussed. Finally, the potential of meta-analytical benefit transfer and scaling up of values at various aggregation levels is demonstrated in the context of coastal tourism and recreation in Europe. The results of the study support the conclusion that the non-material values provided by coastal and estuarine ecosystems in terms of recreational, cultural and aesthetic services represent a substantial component of human well-being.Aesthetic Values, Coastal Recreation, Coral Reefs, Cultural Values, Ecosystem Services Valuation, Ecosystem Services, Estuarine Ecosystems, Marine Protected Areas, Non-market Valuation, Non-use Values, Passive Values, Recreational Fishing, Small Island Developing States, Spiritual and Religious Values.

A discursive, many-objective approach for selecting more-evolved urban vulnerability assessment models

[EN] The development of more-evolved urban vulnerability assessment (UVA) models has become an increasingly important issue for both policy agendas and academia. Several requirements have already been set for this goal; they should be pursued simultaneously. However, methods with such integration are yet to be developed. The present paper addresses this integration via a discursive process in which interactions between decision makers and the method contribute to the selection of a model fulfilling these requirements. That model yields a UVA built upon both qualitative information and quantitative data from indicators selected for the neighbourhood, city, province, region and country political-administrative scales. The characteristics demanded are encoded both into the UVA assessment model and in the optimization and control modules governing the process. While the optimization produces compromise solutions, the control module supervises the process, provides dynamic control and enables the interactions. Interactions are informed with knowledge derived from the cognitive approach entailed by the method and afford a better understanding of the process dynamics. We conclude that the goodness of fit and time dynamics objectives are aligned. Therefore, UVA methods performing well for these objectives are available, although at the expense of a medium to poor performance in preferences and robustnessSalas, J.; Yepes, V. (2018). A discursive, many-objective approach for selecting more-evolved urban vulnerability assessment models. Journal of Cleaner Production. 176:1231-1244. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2017.11.249S1231124417

Validating Agent Based Social Systems Models

Validating social systems is not a trivial task. The paper outlines some of our past efforts in validating models of social systems with cognitively detailed agents. It also presents some of the challenges faced by us. A social system built primarily of cognitively detailed agents can provide multiple levels of correspondence, both at observable and abstract aggregated levels. Such a system can also pose several challenges including large feature spaces, issues in information elicitation with database, experts and news feeds, counterfactuals, fragmented theoretical base, and limited funding for validation. Our own approach to validity assessment is to consider the entire life cycle and assess the validity under four broad dimensions of methodological validity, internal validity, external validity and qualitative, causal and narrative validity. In the past, we have employed a triangulation of multiple validation techniques, including face validation as well as formal validation tests including correspondence testing