Diffusion in Networks and the Unexpected Virtue of Burstiness

Whether an idea, information, infection, or innovation diffuses throughout a society depends not only on the structure of the network of interactions, but also on the timing of those interactions. Recent studies have shown that diffusion can fail on a network in which people are only active in "bursts", active for a while and then silent for a while, but diffusion could succeed on the same network if people were active in a more random Poisson manner. Those studies generally consider models in which nodes are active according to the same random timing process and then ask which timing is optimal. In reality, people differ widely in their activity patterns -- some are bursty and others are not. Here we show that, if people differ in their activity patterns, bursty behavior does not always hurt the diffusion, and in fact having some (but not all) of the population be bursty significantly helps diffusion. We prove that maximizing diffusion requires heterogeneous activity patterns across agents, and the overall maximizing pattern of agents' activity times does not involve any Poisson behavior

Research Agenda for Studying Open Source II: View Through the Lens of Referent Discipline Theories

In a companion paper [Niederman et al., 2006] we presented a multi-level research agenda for studying information systems using open source software. This paper examines open source in terms of MIS and referent discipline theories that are the base needed for rigorous study of the research agenda

Controllability of Social Networks and the Strategic Use of Random Information

This work is aimed at studying realistic social control strategies for social networks based on the introduction of random information into the state of selected driver agents. Deliberately exposing selected agents to random information is a technique already experimented in recommender systems or search engines, and represents one of the few options for influencing the behavior of a social context that could be accepted as ethical, could be fully disclosed to members, and does not involve the use of force or of deception. Our research is based on a model of knowledge diffusion applied to a time-varying adaptive network, and considers two well-known strategies for influencing social contexts. One is the selection of few influencers for manipulating their actions in order to drive the whole network to a certain behavior; the other, instead, drives the network behavior acting on the state of a large subset of ordinary, scarcely influencing users. The two approaches have been studied in terms of network and diffusion effects. The network effect is analyzed through the changes induced on network average degree and clustering coefficient, while the diffusion effect is based on two ad-hoc metrics defined to measure the degree of knowledge diffusion and skill level, as well as the polarization of agent interests. The results, obtained through simulations on synthetic networks, show a rich dynamics and strong effects on the communication structure and on the distribution of knowledge and skills, supporting our hypothesis that the strategic use of random information could represent a realistic approach to social network controllability, and that with both strategies, in principle, the control effect could be remarkable

Net Neutrality as Global Principle for Internet Governance

This paper discusses the concept of network neutrality (NN) and explores its relevance to global Internet governance. The paper identifies three distinct ways in which the concept of network neutrality might attain a status as a globally applicable principle for Internet governance. The paper concludes that the concept of a "neutral" Internet has global applicability in a variety of contexts relevant to Internet governance

The diffusion of innovations: The influence of supply-side factors

Technological Change;microeconomics

Searching for superspreaders of information in real-world social media

A number of predictors have been suggested to detect the most influential spreaders of information in online social media across various domains such as Twitter or Facebook. In particular, degree, PageRank, k-core and other centralities have been adopted to rank the spreading capability of users in information dissemination media. So far, validation of the proposed predictors has been done by simulating the spreading dynamics rather than following real information flow in social networks. Consequently, only model-dependent contradictory results have been achieved so far for the best predictor. Here, we address this issue directly. We search for influential spreaders by following the real spreading dynamics in a wide range of networks. We find that the widely-used degree and PageRank fail in ranking users' influence. We find that the best spreaders are consistently located in the k-core across dissimilar social platforms such as Twitter, Facebook, Livejournal and scientific publishing in the American Physical Society. Furthermore, when the complete global network structure is unavailable, we find that the sum of the nearest neighbors' degree is a reliable local proxy for user's influence. Our analysis provides practical instructions for optimal design of strategies for "viral" information dissemination in relevant applications.Comment: 12 pages, 7 figure

Contrasting Multiple Social Network Autocorrelations for Binary Outcomes, With Applications To Technology Adoption

The rise of socially targeted marketing suggests that decisions made by consumers can be predicted not only from their personal tastes and characteristics, but also from the decisions of people who are close to them in their networks. One obstacle to consider is that there may be several different measures for "closeness" that are appropriate, either through different types of friendships, or different functions of distance on one kind of friendship, where only a subset of these networks may actually be relevant. Another is that these decisions are often binary and more difficult to model with conventional approaches, both conceptually and computationally. To address these issues, we present a hierarchical model for individual binary outcomes that uses and extends the machinery of the auto-probit method for binary data. We demonstrate the behavior of the parameters estimated by the multiple network-regime auto-probit model (m-NAP) under various sensitivity conditions, such as the impact of the prior distribution and the nature of the structure of the network, and demonstrate on several examples of correlated binary data in networks of interest to Information Systems, including the adoption of Caller Ring-Back Tones, whose use is governed by direct connection but explained by additional network topologies

NASA/DOD Aerospace Knowledge Diffusion Research Project. Paper 10: The NASA/DOD Aerospace Knowledge Diffusion Research Project

The role of the NASA/DOD Aerospace Knowledge DIffusion Research Project in helping to maintain U.S. competitiveness is addressed. The phases of the project are examined in terms of the focus, emphasis, subjects, methods, and desired outcomes. The importance of the project to aerospace R&D is emphasized