A systematic review of software development cost estimation studies

This paper aims to provide a basis for the improvement of software estimation research through a systematic review of previous work. The review identifies 304 software cost estimation papers in 76 journals and classifies the papers according to research topic, estimation approach, research approach, study context and data set. A web-based library of these cost estimation papers is provided to ease the identification of relevant estimation research results. The review results combined with other knowledge provide support for recommendations for future software cost estimation research, including: 1) Increase the breadth of the search for relevant studies, 2) Search manually for relevant papers within a carefully selected set of journals when completeness is essential, 3) Conduct more studies on estimation methods commonly used by the software industry, and, 4) Increase the awareness of how properties of the data sets impact the results when evaluating estimation methods

Predicting with sparse data

It is well known that effective prediction of project cost related factors is an important aspect of software engineering. Unfortunately, despite extensive research over more than 30 years, this remains a significant problem for many practitioners. A major obstacle is the absence of reliable and systematic historic data, yet this is a sine qua non for almost all proposed methods: statistical, machine learning or calibration of existing models. In this paper we describe our sparse data method (SDM) based upon a pairwise comparison technique and Saaty's Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP). Our minimum data requirement is a single known point. The technique is supported by a software tool known as DataSalvage. We show, for data from two companies, how our approach — based upon expert judgement — adds value to expert judgement by producing significantly more accurate and less biased results. A sensitivity analysis shows that our approach is robust to pairwise comparison errors. We then describe the results of a small usability trial with a practising project manager. From this empirical work we conclude that the technique is promising and may help overcome some of the present barriers to effective project prediction

Prediction accuracy measurements as a fitness function for software effort estimation

This paper evaluates the usage of analytical programming and different fitness functions for software effort estimation. Analytical programming and differential evolution generate regression functions. These functions are evaluated by the fitness function which is part of differential evolution. The differential evolution requires a proper fitness function for effective optimization. The problem is in proper selection of the fitness function. Analytical programming and different fitness functions were tested to assess insight to this problem. Mean magnitude of relative error, prediction 25 %, mean squared error (MSE) and other metrics were as possible candidates for proper fitness function. The experimental results shows that means squared error performs best and therefore is recommended as a fitness function. Moreover, this work shows that analytical programming method is viable method for calibrating use case points method. All results were evaluated by standard approach: visual inspection and statistical significance. © 2015, Urbanek et al.Tomas Bata University in Zlin [IGA/CebiaTech/2015/034

Brief review of classical Effort Estimation models for Software development projects

A critical synthesis on the most representative models for software development project effort estimation is provided. This work is a basis for a discussion about the methodological and practical challenges which entail the effort estimation field, specially in the mathematical/statistical modelling fundamentals, and its empirical verification in the software industry

Enhancing Software Project Outcomes: Using Machine Learning and Open Source Data to Employ Software Project Performance Determinants

Many factors can influence the ongoing management and execution of technology projects. Some of these elements are known a priori during the project planning phase. Others require real-time data gathering and analysis throughout the lifetime of a project. These real-time project data elements are often neglected, misclassified, or otherwise misinterpreted during the project execution phase resulting in increased risk of delays, quality issues, and missed business opportunities. The overarching motivation for this research endeavor is to offer reliable improvements in software technology management and delivery. The primary purpose is to discover and analyze the impact, role, and level of influence of various project related data on the ongoing management of technology projects. The study leverages open source data regarding software performance attributes. The goal is to temper the subjectivity currently used by project managers (PMs) with quantifiable measures when assessing project execution progress. Modern-day PMs who manage software development projects are charged with an arduous task. Often, they obtain their inputs from technical leads who tend to be significantly more technical. When assessing software projects, PMs perform their role subject to the limitations of their capabilities and competencies. PMs are required to contend with the stresses of the business environment, the policies, and procedures dictated by their organizations, and resource constraints. The second purpose of this research study is to propose methods by which conventional project assessment processes can be enhanced using quantitative methods that utilize real-time project execution data. Transferability of academic research to industry application is specifically addressed vis-à-vis a delivery framework to provide meaningful data to industry practitioners

Linear Programming as a Baseline for Software Effort Estimation

Software effort estimation studies still suffer from discordant empirical results (i.e., conclusion instability) mainly due to the lack of rigorous benchmarking methods. So far only one baseline model, namely, Automatically Transformed Linear Model (ATLM), has been proposed yet it has not been extensively assessed. In this article, we propose a novel method based on Linear Programming (dubbed as Linear Programming for Effort Estimation, LP4EE) and carry out a thorough empirical study to evaluate the effectiveness of both LP4EE and ATLM for benchmarking widely used effort estimation techniques. The results of our study confirm the need to benchmark every other proposal against accurate and robust baselines. They also reveal that LP4EE is more accurate than ATLM for 17% of the experiments and more robust than ATLM against different data splits and cross-validation methods for 44% of the cases. These results suggest that using LP4EE as a baseline can help reduce conclusion instability. We make publicly available an open-source implementation of LP4EE in order to facilitate its adoption in future studies