Does money matter in inflation forecasting?.

This paper provides the most fully comprehensive evidence to date on whether or not monetary aggregates are valuable for forecasting US inflation in the early to mid 2000s. We explore a wide range of different definitions of money, including different methods of aggregation and different collections of included monetary assets. In our forecasting experiment we use two non-linear techniques, namely, recurrent neural networks and kernel recursive least squares regression - techniques that are new to macroeconomics. Recurrent neural networks operate with potentially unbounded input memory, while the kernel regression technique is a finite memory predictor. The two methodologies compete to find the best fitting US inflation forecasting models and are then compared to forecasts from a naive random walk model. The best models were non-linear autoregressive models based on kernel methods. Our findings do not provide much support for the usefulness of monetary aggregates in forecasting inflation

Computational methods and software systems for dynamics and control of large space structures

Two key areas of crucial importance to the computer-based simulation of large space structures are discussed. The first area involves multibody dynamics (MBD) of flexible space structures, with applications directed to deployment, construction, and maneuvering. The second area deals with advanced software systems, with emphasis on parallel processing. The latest research thrust in the second area involves massively parallel computers

NOVEL NEW MODELING PROCEDURE FOR INDUSTRIAL MACHINERY WITH NONLINEAR CONNECTIONS

Given current timelines for rolling out production at volume, the ability to model portions of the production process is of paramount importance. To model production, high-fidelity models of production assets must be obtained. The production assets are comprised of linear and nonlinear structures. The linear structures are well understood and defined. Significant work has, and is, being done to understand the nonlinear components. This work focuses on developing and correlating a model of a nonlinear component. The component studied and modeled is a linear guide. Linear guides are bearings which facilitate translational motion of machine axes. An accurate model of a linear guide is necessary to achieve an accurate model of a machine tool (production asset). Concepts of nonlinear structural dynamics are utilized and extended for use with linear guides. This work provides an accurate model of linear guides. The linear guides are fully tested to extract the nonlinear characteristics. The guides are found to exhibit a softening nonlinearity. Upon characterization of the nonlinearity, additional testing and validation are performed to develop a model. The harmonic balance method is utilized to conduct a numerical simulation of a set of linear guides The model is then correlated

[Report of] Specialist Committee V.4: ocean, wind and wave energy utilization

The committee's mandate was :Concern for structural design of ocean energy utilization devices, such as offshore wind turbines, support structures and fixed or floating wave and tidal energy converters. Attention shall be given to the interaction between the load and the structural response and shall include due consideration of the stochastic nature of the waves, current and wind