Geomechanical Reservoir Model Calibration and Uncertainty Assessment from Microseismic Data

Hydraulic stimulation of low permeability rocks in unconventional reservoirs has been observed to trigger microearthquakes (MEQs). Triggering of the MEQ events has been linked to the pore pressure, temperature, and in-situ stress variations which result in crack initiation. The resulting clouds of micro-seismic events are believed to carry information about the underlying coupled flow, geomechanics, and thermal processes and hence rock hydraulic and geomechanical property distributions. We develop a probabilistic framework called stochastic seismicity-based reservoir characterization (SSBRC) to integrate microseismic events to infer reservoir property distributions. To model the geothermal reservoir stimulation, a fully coupled thermo-poroelastic finite element method (FEM) model has been developed to handle the coupled process of heat transport, fluid flow, and rock deformation. To simulate the stimulation process, an alternate simplistic approach is also acquired based on a major hypothesis that MEQ events are triggered by an increase in pore pressure. Based on this hypothesis, the distribution of the resulting microseismicity clouds can be viewed as monitoring data that carry important information about the spatial distribution of rock permeability. We apply the ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) to integrate the resulting continuous seismicity map to estimate hydraulic and geomechanical property distributions. We demonstrate that the standard application of the EnKF with such large correlated datasets can result in substantial loss of ensemble spread. We investigate three alternative implementation methods to mitigate this issue. We first present the methodology proposed for MEQ data integration with the EnKF, followed by a number of examples of applying SSBRC to both forward modeling methods to illustrate the uncertainty underestimation effect when the standard EnKF is applied to large-scale seismicity density map data. We then discuss the proposed methods for improving the uncertainty quantification results and illustrate the effectiveness of these methods by applying them to a number of numerical examples. We also apply and extend the proposed microseismic data integration method to unconventional reservoir with horizontal well and multistage hydraulic fractures to characterize the reservoir and induced fractures. We also investigate the effect of variogram model uncertainty in the EnKF performance and propose a modified EnKF algorithm to handle the uncertainty in variogram parameters. We also develop a computationally efficient data assimilation procedure by employing a pseudo forecast method and geological model clustering method along with EnKF. By a set of numerical experiments, we show how the proposed fast history matching method is successful in preserving the ensemble spread and expediting the integration procedure

Evolution of Stress and Seismicity in Fractured Geothermal Reservoirs

The mitigation and control of induced seismicity has become a major challenge for the future of enhanced geothermal systems (EGS). In this thesis I analyse the stimulation of well GPK2 of the EGS at Soultz-sous-Forêts. I analyze whether interaction of seismicity by static stress transfer plays a role and investigate stress changes from inversion of focal mechanism solutions. Second, the time-dependency of borehole breakout development is studied

Stress Field and Seismicity at Campi Flegrei Caldera

Aim of this work is the study of the stress field in the Campi Flegrei caldera during the bradyseismic crisis of 1982-1984. n the first part of the work has been analysed old cretaceous and digital seismic datasets relative to 70th years, and the bradyseismic crisis of 1982-1984 where has been recorded the earthquakes linked to uplifts that interested Campi flegrei caldera during 1969-72 and 1982-84. The seismicity dataset has been used to made some analysis as location and focal mechanisms generation. The focal mechanisms are than analysed using two software to determine the principal state of stress that was predominant in that period. Then, starting from ground deformation data, relative to 1100 optical levelling measure done during the bradyseismic crisis, has been use the inversion method to modelling the source of the deformation. Has been used many model as the Mogi model, the penny shaped-crack, and the rectangular crack of Okada. Consequently, a joint inversion was applicate on ground deformation data and seismicity together to better understand the dynamic of the stress in the area.In the last part of the work, has been determined the excess of pore pressure in the Flegrean area, using focal mechanisms to study the influence of fluid pore pressure on change in the Coulomb stress of the area. Has been used the Coulomb-Navier criterion and Terakawa method (2010) to estimate the excess of pore pressure. Finally, in order to evaluate the reliability of the calculated pore pressures, was done thermo-fluid dynamic simulation and analysed the hydrothermal system of Campi Flegrei caldera. So, has been performed a series of simulation thermo-fluid dynamic injecting a flow in the system varying temperature, pressure and injection rate to model the Campi Flegrei caldera during the unrest

Dynamics of hydrofracturing and microseismic signals in porous versus tight rocks

This work discusses the dynamic development of hydraulic fractures, their evolution and the resulting seismicity during fluid injection in a coupled numerical model. The model describes coupling between a solid that can fracture dynamically and a compressible fluid that can push back at the rock and open fractures. With a series of numerical simulations it is shown how the fracture pattern and seismicity change depending on changes in depth, injection rate, Young’s modulus and breaking strength. Simulations indicate that the Young’s modulus has the largest influence on the fracture dynamics and also the related seismicity. Simulations of rocks with a Young’s modulus smaller than 10 GPa show dominant mode I failure and a growth of fracture aperture with a decrease in Young’s modulus. Simulations of rocks with a Young’s modulus higher than 10 GPa show fractures with a constant aperture and fracture growth that is mainly governed by a growth in crack length and an increasing amount of mode II failure. This change in fracture geometry evolution has an effect on the observed seismicity. Rocks with a Young’s modulus of 10 GPa have the smallest moment magnitude while both decrease and increase of Young’s modulus value contribute to a growth of the seismic moment magnitude. The signal is further altered by non-linear change in dip and tensile angle depending on the Young’s modulus value. It is proposed that two distinct failure regimes are observed in the simulations. Below 10 GPa a fracture propagates through growth in aperture, this causes the fracture tip to be under constant extension. For rocks above 10 GPa, the aperture is small and the fracture is under compression. In this case fracture growth is driven by stress intensification at the crack tip, which causes fracture opening to have greater proportion of mode II compared to mode I. To suppliment the observations made from numerical simulations, laboratory experiments with air injection into vertically orientated Hele-Shaw cell were carried out. Strain analysis of the recorded experiments showed stress regimes that are very similar to the ones observed during numerical simulations with soft rocks. In both cases negative strain fields could be observed in front of the fracture tip. This indicates that fracture propagation for soft materials is driven by tensile failure and walls being pushed apart. Further analysis on fracture propagation mechanisms and solid media response were carried out. These results are applicable to the prediction of fracture dynamics and seismicity during fluid injection, especially since we see a transition from one failure regime to another at around 10 GPa, a Young’s modulus that lies in the middle of possible values for natural shale rocks

Coda wave interferometry and relative source location

A wide range of applications requires relative locations of sources of energy to be known accurately. Most conventional location methods are either subject to errors that depend strongly on inaccuracy in the model of propagation velocity used, or demand a well-distributed network of surrounding seismic stations in order to produce reliable results. A source location method based on coda wave interferometry (CWI) is relatively insensitive to the number of seismic stations and to the source-to-station azimuthal coverage. It therefore opens new avenues for research, for applications in areas with unfavourable recording geometries, and for applications which require a complementary method. CWI uses scattered waves in the coda of seismograms to estimate the small differences between two seismic states, and currently has three types of applications: estimating bulk velocity change of the medium, scatterer displacement, and source location perturbation. When used for source location, CWI is used to estimate the distances between pairs of sources with similar mechanism (equivalent to estimating location perturbation of the same source), which are then used jointly to determine the relative location of a cluster of sources using a probabilistic framework as an optimization problem. However, estimating source separation is a relatively new type of application of CWI. In the first part of this thesis, the performance of CWI is tested in models with varying complexities and types: from point-scatterer media as assumed in the CWI theory, to layered media as in classic Earth models, to media with combinations of point-scatters and layers, and finally to the more realistic Marmousi model. This thesis also presents the first elastic case of testing CWI to estimate source separation in synthetic experiments. The study contributes to better understand and interpret the source separation estimates and therefore relative locations using CWI. The second part of this thesis validates the location algorithm with synthetic data. When applied to real seismic data, the algorithm is found to suffer from the impact of large difference in the dominant wavelength of recordings made on different instruments. This thesis introduces a new formulation for the optimization problem to account for data from multiple station channels. In addition, it proposes a way to standardize the selection of parameters when implementing the method. The algorithm is applied to a micro-seismic dataset of mining induced events recorded in Nottinghamshire, England. The earthquake location results are highly consistent when using different individual seismometer channels, showing that it is possible to locate event clusters with a single-channel seismometer. These microseismic events have shorter distinguishable codas in recorded waveforms, and hence fewer recorded scattered waves than those that have been used to test this method previously. Thus, the potential applications of this cost-effective method are extended to seismic events over a wider range of magnitudes. Given the advantages of this location method, it has been applied only once in literature other than in this thesis. It is likely that one reason that it is not used more widely is the lack of reliable code that implements this multistage method. This thesis develops a well-commented MATLAB code called CWIcluster that does so, accompanied by a clear and thorough user manual. It implements the location method in three stages: classifying events into clusters, computing inter-source separations using CWI, and estimating their relative locations. Each stage can be implemented in an automated sense given criteria chosen by the user. It is shown that the location algorithm is able to correct bias (underestimation) in the CWI separation estimates to some extent. The third part of this thesis returns to the three basic types of applications of CWI. Standard CWI methods require an assumption that a single type of perturbation has taken place in the system (as do most other methods that measure changes in a seismic system). However, in reality more than one type of perturbation can occur simultaneously. This thesis proposes a general treatment to account for multiple types of perturbations, allowing each type to be recognized and estimated with the effects of others being compensated. The appendices include a co-authored submitted paper that examines the influence of velocity change and source location perturbation on one another in the context of a rock-physics laboratory. Overall this thesis intensively tests the relatively new method of coda wave interferometry to estimate inter-source separations in various environments, and explores its potential to detect multiple types of perturbations that have occurred simultaneously, thus extending our understanding of the set of CWI methods in general. In addition, it validates the relative location method based on CWI and provides ways to improve the original method, as well as a way to assess the quality of results when applied to real data. Finally, it presents a new freely-available code package to implement the location method, which the authors hope will introduce this method more widely in both academia and industry

Earthquake Nucleation Processes Across Different Scales and Settings

Extended nucleation phases of earthquakes have been regularly observed, yet the underlying mechanisms governing the initiation phase of rupture are yet to be understood in detail. Currently two end member models exist to explain earthquake nucleation: one model claiming that the nucleation phase of a small earthquake is indistinguishable from that of a large one, while the other proposes fundamental differences in the underlying process. Previous studies have been using the same seismological observations to argue for either model, leaving the need of further investigations into the nucleation behavior of earthquakes across scales and different settings. The thesis at hand contributes to the current discussion on earthquake nucleation by providing additional observational evidence for extended nucleation phases, complex rupture interaction and growth across a number of different scales and settings. Here, earthquake nucleation is investigated for three different scenarios, each with varying degrees of complexity: 1) the controlled case of induced seismicity in hydraulic stimulations of geothermal reservoirs, where rupture growth is assumed to be primarily governed by anthropogenic activity, 2) the partly-controlled setting of a geothermal field with a long history of fluid injection and production, and 3) the uncontrolled case of natural seismicity in the central Sea of Marmara, where earthquake nucleation is purely governed by the regional tectonics. First, the temporal evolution of seismicity and the growth of observed moment magnitudes for a range of past and present hydraulic stimulation projects associated with the creation of enhanced geothermal systems are analyzed. They reveal a clear linear relation between injected fluid volume/hydraulic energy and cumulative seismic moments. For most projects studied, the observations are in good agreement with existing physical models that predict a relation between injected fluid volume and maximum seismic moment of induced events. This suggests that seismicity results from a stable, pressure controlled rupture process at least for an extended injection period. Overall evolution of seismicity is independent of tectonic stress regime and is most likely governed by reservoir specific parameters, such as the preexisting structural inventory. In contrast, a few stimulations reveal unbound increase in seismic moment suggesting that for these cases evolution of seismicity is mainly controlled by stress field, the size of tectonic faults and fault connectivity. The uncertainty over whether or not a transition between behavior is likely to occur at any point during the injection is what motivates the need for a next generation monitoring and traffic-light system accounting for the possibility of unstable rupture propagation from the very beginning of injection by observing the entire seismicity evolution at high resolution for an immediate reaction in injection strategy. Furthermore, the majority of pressure-controlled stimulations shows the potential of actively controlling the size of induced earthquakes, if an injection protocol is chosen based on continuous feedback from a near-real-time seismic monitoring system. Second, moderate sized earthquakes at The Geysers geothermal field (California), where years of injection and production across hundreds of wells have led to a unique physical environment, are studied. While overall seismicity at The Geysers is generally governed by anthropogenic activities, contributions of individual wells or injection activities are hard to distinguish, thus making detailed managing of occurring magnitudes challenging. New high-resolution seismicity catalogs framing the occurrence of 20 ML > 2.5 earthquakes were created. The seismicity catalogs were developed using a matched filter algorithm, including automatic determination of P and S phase onsets and their inversion for absolute hypocenter locations with corresponding uncertainties. The selected 20 sequences sample different hypocentral depths and hydraulic conditions within the field. Seismic activity and magnitude frequency distributions displayed by the different earthquake sequences are correlated with their location within the reservoir. Sequences located in the northwestern part of the reservoir show overall increased seismic activity and low b values, while the southeastern part is dominated by decreased seismic activity and higher b values. Periods of high injection coincide with high b values and vice versa. These observations potentially reflect varying differential and mean stresses and damage of the reservoir rocks across the field. Additionally, a systematic search for seismicity localization using a multi-step cross-correlation analysis was performed. No evidence for increased correlation between the occurring seismicity and the mainshock for any of the 20 sequences could be seen, indicating that each main nucleation spot was seismically silent prior to the main rupture. However, a number of highly inter-correlated earthquakes for sequences below the reservoir and during high injection activity is observed. Under these conditions, the seismicity surrounding the future mainshock source region is more concentrated and might be evidence for a cascading nucleation process. About 50% of analyzed sequences exhibit no change in seismicity rate in response to the large main event. However, we find complex waveforms at the onset of the main earthquake, suggesting that small ruptures spontaneously grow into or trigger larger events, consistent with a cascading type nucleation. Third, the spatiotemporal evolution of seismicity during a sequence of moderate (MW4.7 and MW5.8) earthquakes occurring in September 2019 at the transition between a creeping and a locked segment of the North Anatolian Fault in the central Sea of Marmara (Turkey) was analyzed. A matched filter technique was applied to continuous waveforms from the regional network, substantially reducing the magnitude threshold for detection. Sequences of foreshocks preceding the two mainshocks are clearly seen, exhibiting different behaviors: a migration of the seismicity along the entire fault segment on the long-term and a concentration around the epicenters of the large events on the short-term. Suggesting that both seismic and aseismic slip during the foreshock sequences change the stress state on the fault, bringing it closer to failure. Furthermore, the observations also suggest that the MW4.7 event contributed to weaken the fault as part of the preparation process of the MW5.8 earthquake. Combining the results obtained from different settings, it becomes apparent that, regardless of the tectonic setting and degree of anthropogenic control over the seismicity, there is a wide range of complex nucleation behaviours not yet explained by any of the current models of earthquake nucleation. A simplistic view of earthquake nucleation as either a deterministic or a stochastic process seems inconsistent with the obtained results and fails to account for a more complex nucleation behaviour. Observations from The Geysers and the western Sea of Marmara earthquake sequence, suggest that both cascade triggering and aseismic slip can play major roles in the nucleation of moderate sized earthquakes. Both mechanisms seem to jointly contribute to fault initiation, even within the same rock volume. A separation of the two mechanisms can potentially be thought of at The Geysers, where cascade triggering seems to dominate in highly damaged parts of the reservoir, suggesting that the anthropogenic activity can at least partially influence the nucleation behavior of the occurring seismicity. This would be in agreement with the results obtained from analysis of hydraulic stimulations, where during the pressure-controlled phase of injection rupture growth is controlled by the injected fluid

Bureau of Mines publications and articles, 1992-1993 (with subject and author index)

The U.S. Bureau of Mines (USBM) was established in the public interest to conclude inquiries and scientific and technologic investigations on mining and the preparation, treatment, and utilization of mineral substances; to promote health and safety in the mineral industries; to conserve material resources and prevent their waste; to further economic development; to increaseee efficiency in the mining, metallurgical, quarrying, and other mineral industries; and to inquire into the economic conditions affecting those industries. The organic act of the Bureau, as amended by Congress and approved February 25, 1913, made it the province and duty of the U.S. Bureau of Mines to "disseminate information concerning these subjects in such manner as will best carry out the purposes of this Act."In accordance with this directive, USBM reports the findings of its research and investigations in its own series of publications and also in articles that appear in scientific, technical, and trade journals; in proceedings of conventions and seminars; in reference books; and in other non-USBM publications. The number of these reports, the wide range of subjects they cover, and the variety of mediums in which they appear make this kind of list both necessary and valuable.This edition describes reports and articles published during calendar years 1992 and 1993. It supplements the 50-year list of Bureau publications from July 1, 1910, to January 1, 19602 ; and these 5-year lists of publications and articles: from January 1, 1965, to December 31, 1969 from January 1, 1970, to December 31, 1974, from January 1, 1975, to December 31, 197 , from January 1, 1980, to December 31,1984, and from January 1, 1985, to December 31, 1989.ISBN 0-16-045065-

Abstracts of manuscripts submitted in 1993 for publication

This volume contains the abstracts of manuscripts submitted for publication during calendar year 1993 by the staff and students of the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution. We identify the journal of those manuscripts which are in press or have been published. The volume is intended to be informative, but not a bibliography. The abstracts are listed by title in the Table of Contents and ar grouped into one of our five departents, Marine Policy Center, Coastal Research Center, or the student category. An author index is presented in the back to facilitate locating specific papers

Fluid injections in the subsurface: a multidisciplinary approach for better understanding their implications on induced seismicity and the environment.

Fluid injections in the subsurface are common operations in underground industrial activities such as oil and gas exploitation, geothermal energy development, and carbon capture and storage (CCS). In recent years, it became a focal point as new drilling technologies (e.g., hydraulic fracturing) enable the extraction of oil and gas in unconventional reservoirs and the development of CCS injection techniques became a key research topic in the context of the low-carbon energy transition. Fluid injections have drawn the attention also in the general public because of their main potential implications such as the induced seismicity phenomenon (Rubinstein and Mahani, 2015) and the environmental pollution (Burton et al., 2016, Pitchel et al., 2016). Considering the strong socioeconomic impact of fluid injection operations (National Research Council, 2013; Ellsworth, 2013; Grigoli et al., 2017) the current research in this field needs the integration of multidisciplinary studies, involving knowledge on geology, seismology, source physics, hydrogeology, fluid geochemistry, rocks geomechanics for a complete understanding of the phenomenon and to set-up the most effective and “best practice” protocols for the monitoring of areas where injection operation are performed. On this basis, this work applied a multidisciplinary approach integrating seismological methods, geochemical studies, and machine learning techniques. Two key-study areas characterized by high fluid-rock interaction and fluid-injection in the subsurface were analyzed: i) the High Agri Valley (hereinafter HAV), hosting the largest onshore oil field in West Europe, in which wastewater disposal operations have been carried out since 2006 at the Costa Molina 2 injection well and where both natural and induced seismicity clusters were recognized; ii) the Mefite d’Ansanto, the largest natural emission of CO2-rich gases with mantle-derived fluids (from non‐volcanic environment) ever measured on the Earth (Carcausi et al., 2013; Caracausi and Paternoster, 2015; Chiodini et al, 2010). Regarding the HAV study area, we reconstructed the preliminary catalogue of seismicity through accurate absolute locations in a 3D-velocity model (Serlenga and Stabile, 2019) of earthquakes detected from the local seismic INSIEME network managed by the CNR-IMAA. A total of 852 between local tectonic and induced earthquakes occurred in the HAV between September 2016 and March 2019. We tested the potential of the unsupervised machine-learning approach as an automated tool to make faster dataset exploratory analysis, founding the density-based approach (DBSCAN algorithm-Density-Based Spatial Clustering of Applications with Noise, Ester et al., 1996) particularly suitable for the fast identification of clusters in the catalogue resulting from both injection-induced events and tectonic local earthquake swarms. Moreover, we proposed a semi-automated workflow for earthquake detection and location with the aim to improve the current standard procedures, quite time-consuming and strictly related to human operators. The workflow, integrating manual, semi-automatic and automatic detection and location methods enabled us to characterize a low magnitude natural seismic sequence occurred in August 2020 in the southwestern area of the HAV (Castelsaraceno sequence) in a relatively short time with respect to the application of standard techniques, thus representing a starting point for the improvement of the efficiency of seismic monitoring techniques of both anthropogenic and natural seismicity in the HAV. Our multidisciplinary approach involved the geochemical study of the HAV groundwaters with the aim to: (1) determine the geochemical processes controlling the chemical composition; (2) define a geochemical conceptual model regarding fluid origin (deep vs shallow) and mixing processes by means isotopic data; (3) establish a geochemical baseline for the long-term environmental monitoring of the area. A total of 39 water samples were collected from springs and wells located at the main hydro-structures bordering the valley to determine chemical (major, minor and trace elements) and isotopic composition (e.g., dD, d18O, d13C-TDIC and noble gas). All investigated water samples have a meteoric origin, although some springs show long and deep flow than the other ones, and a bicarbonate alkaline-earth composition, thus suggesting the carbonate hydrolysis as the main water-rock interaction process. Our results demonstrated that HAV groundwater is chemically suitable for drinking use showing no criticalities for potentially toxic metals reported by the Italian and European legislation guidelines. Particular attention was given on thermal water of Tramutola well, built by Agip S.p.a. for oil & gas exploration, with the occurrence of bubbling gases. The geochemical study highlighted a substantial difference of these CH4-dominated thermal fluids with the rest of the dataset. Helium isotope (3He/4He) indicate a prevalent radiogenic component with a contribution of mantle-derived helium (~20%) and the average δ13C-CO2 value is of – 4.6 ‰ VPDB, consistent with a mantle origin. Methane isotope composition indicates a likely microbial isotopic signature (δ13C-CH4 =−63.1‰, −62.4‰, δD-CH4=−196‰, −212‰), probably due to biodegradation processes of thermogenic hydrocarbons. The methane output at the well, evaluated by means of anemometric measurement of the volume flow (m3/h) is of ~156 t/y, that represent about 1.5% of total national anthropogenic sources related to fossil fuel industry (Etiope et al., 2007). Our work highlighted that Tramutola well may represent a key natural laboratory to better understand the complex coupling effects between mechanical and fluid-dynamic processes in earthquake generation. Moreover, the integration of seismic and geochemical data in this work allowed us to identify the most suitable locations for the future installation of multiparametric stations for the long-term monitoring of the area and development of integrated research in the HAV. Regarding the Mefite d’Ansanto, we analyzed the background seismicity in the emission area recorded by a dense temporary seismic network deployed at the site between 30-10-2019 and 02-11-2019. First, we implemented and tested an automated detection algorithm based on non-parametric statistics of the recorded amplitudes at each station, collecting a total dataset of 8561 events. Then, both unsupervised (DBSCAN) and supervised (KNN-k-nearest neighbors classification, Fix & Hodges, 1951) machine learning techniques were applied, based on specific parameters (duration, RMS-amplitude and arrival slope) of the detected events. DBSCAN algorithm allowed to determine characteristic bivariate correlations among tremors parameters: a high linear correlation (r~0.6-0.7) between duration and RMS-amplitude and a lower one (r~0.5-0.6) between amplitude and arrival slope (first arrival parametrization). These relationships let us to define training samples for the KNN algorithm, which allowed to classify tremor signals at each station and to automatically discriminate between tremors and accidentally detected anthropogenic noise. Results allowed to extract new information on seismic tremor at Mefite d’Ansanto, previously poorly quantitively analyzed, and its discrimination, thus providing a starting workflow for monitoring the non-volcanic emission. Isotopic geochemistry (3He/4He, 4 He/20Ne, δ13CCO2) indicated a mixing of mantle (30%-40%) and crust-derived fluids. The source location of the emission related tremor would represent a step forward in its characterization, and for setting up more advanced automated detection and machine learning classification techniques to exploit the information provided by seismic tremor for an improved automatic monitoring of non-volcanic, CO2 -gas emissions