Modeling Long- and Short-Term Temporal Patterns with Deep Neural Networks

Multivariate time series forecasting is an important machine learning problem across many domains, including predictions of solar plant energy output, electricity consumption, and traffic jam situation. Temporal data arise in these real-world applications often involves a mixture of long-term and short-term patterns, for which traditional approaches such as Autoregressive models and Gaussian Process may fail. In this paper, we proposed a novel deep learning framework, namely Long- and Short-term Time-series network (LSTNet), to address this open challenge. LSTNet uses the Convolution Neural Network (CNN) and the Recurrent Neural Network (RNN) to extract short-term local dependency patterns among variables and to discover long-term patterns for time series trends. Furthermore, we leverage traditional autoregressive model to tackle the scale insensitive problem of the neural network model. In our evaluation on real-world data with complex mixtures of repetitive patterns, LSTNet achieved significant performance improvements over that of several state-of-the-art baseline methods. All the data and experiment codes are available online.Comment: Accepted by SIGIR 201

Comparing End-to-End Machine Learning Methods for Spectra Classification

In scientific research, spectroscopy and diffraction experimental techniques are widely used and produce huge amounts of spectral data. Learning patterns from spectra is critical during these experiments. This provides immediate feedback on the actual status of the experiment (e.g., time-resolved status of the sample), which helps guide the experiment. The two major spectral changes what we aim to capture are either the change in intensity distribution (e.g., drop or appearance) of peaks at certain locations, or the shift of those on the spectrum. This study aims to develop deep learning (DL) classification frameworks for one-dimensional (1D) spectral time series. In this work, we deal with the spectra classification problem from two different perspectives, one is a general two-dimensional (2D) space segmentation problem, and the other is a common 1D time series classification problem. We focused on the two proposed classification models under these two settings, the namely the end-to-end binned Fully Connected Neural Network (FCNN) with the automatically capturing weighting factors model and the convolutional SCT attention model. Under the setting of 1D time series classification, several other end-to-end structures based on FCNN, Convolutional Neural Network (CNN), ResNets, Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM), and Transformer were explored. Finally, we evaluated and compared the performance of these classification models based on the High Energy Density (HED) spectra dataset from multiple perspectives, and further performed the feature importance analysis to explore their interpretability. The results show that all the applied models can achieve 100% classification confidence, but the models applied under the 1D time series classification setting are superior. Among them, Transformer-based methods consume the least training time (0.449 s). Our proposed convolutional Spatial-Channel-Temporal (SCT) attention model uses 1.269 s, but its self-attention mechanism performed across spatial, channel, and temporal dimensions can suppress indistinguishable features better than others, and selectively focus on obvious features with high separability.Peer Reviewe