A Study of Mobile User Movements Prediction Methods

For a decade and more, the Number of smart phone users count increasing day by day. With the drastic improvements in Communication technologies, the prediction of future movements of mobile users needs also have important role. Various sectors can gain from this prediction. Communication management, City Development planning, and locationbased services are some of the fields that can be made more valuable with movement prediction. In this paper, we propose a study of several Location Prediction Techniques in the following area

An improved method for mobility prediction using a Markov model and density estimation

This is the author accepted manuscript. The final version is available from IEEE via the DOI in this recordThe prediction of an individual's future locations is a significant part of scientific researches. While a variety of solutions have been investigated for the prediction of future locations, predicting departure and arrival times at predicted locations is a task with higher complexity and less attention. While the challenges of combining spatial and temporal information have been stated in various works, the proposed solutions lack accuracy and robustness. This paper proposes a simple yet effective way to predict not only an individual's future location, but also most probable departure and arrival times as well as the most probable route from origin to destination

Next Place Prediction Based on Spatiotemporal Pattern Mining of Mobile Device Logs

Due to the recent explosive growth of location-aware services based on mobile devices, predicting the next places of a user is of increasing importance to enable proactive information services. In this paper, we introduce a data-driven framework that aims to predict the user’s next places using his/her past visiting patterns analyzed from mobile device logs. Specifically, the notion of the spatiotemporal-periodic (STP) pattern is proposed to capture the visits with spatiotemporal periodicity by focusing on a detail level of location for each individual. Subsequently, we present algorithms that extract the STP patterns from a user’s past visiting behaviors and predict the next places based on the patterns. The experiment results obtained by using a real-world dataset show that the proposed methods are more effective in predicting the user’s next places than the previous approaches considered in most cases

Modelos baseados em PPM para previsão de trajetórias utilizando informações contextuais.

Com a ampla difusão de smartphones equipados com dispositivos GPS (Global Positioning System), rastrear a localização de objetos (como pessoas e veículos) tem sido uma tarefa mais factível, resultando em novas oportunidades de pesquisas em variadas áreas do conhecimento. Dentre estas oportunidades, esta pesquisa lida com o desafio da área de previsão de rotas e destinos. Saber antecipadamente o destino de um usuário assim que ele inicia um deslocamento tem muitas utilidades práticas, tais como: indicar rotas menos congestionadas ou vias mais seguras, e sugerir a visita a algum ponto de interesse (POI) antes do destino almejado. Sistemas que fornecem previsão de rota e destino estão disponíveis comercialmente, no entanto, estes podem requerer interações constantes do usuário. Para deslocamentos diários, porém, a necessidade de uma interação frequente do usuário com um aplicativo pode tornar seu uso pouco prático e pouco ubíquo. Além disso, muitos trabalhos que apresentam modelos de previsão de rotas e destinos, disponíveis na literatura, não contemplam uma importante informação contextual, que é o papel que os lugares visitados representam para um usuário (por exemplo, se é sua casa ou seu local de trabalho). Não obstante, a maioria dos preditores disponíveis não possuem a funcionalidade de prever lugares nunca visitados. Esta tese de doutorado propõe uma família de métodos de predição baseada no algoritmo de compressão de dados Prediction by Partial Matching (PPM). Ainda com relação a esta pesquisa, é proposto um mecanismo capaz de identificar que uma rota em curso está sendo realizada pela primeira vez e, portanto, ter a possibilidade de prever um destino ainda não visitado. Neste estudo, também foram implementados outros preditores consolidados na literatura, que são as Cadeias de Markov e as Cadeias Ocultas de Markov, utilizados para comparação. É importante observar que ambos os preditores são capazes de prever apenas o destino de um trajeto, ao invés da rota restante. Nos experimentos realizados, foram utilizadas as métricas de Precisão, Recall e Medida-F (F1 Score), com validação cruzada (contendo 10 partições mutuamente exclusivas), para avaliação dos modelos de previsão implementados. A base de dados utilizada nesta pesquisa é composta por mais de 1.500 rotas, coletadas por aproximadamente três meses, referentes a 21 usuários. Os preditores baseados em PPM apresentaram resultados competitivos (ou superiores) comparados aos da literatura.Thanks to the widely diffusion of smartphones with GPS devices natively embedded, the task of tracking object locations, such as people or vehicles, is more feasible nowadays, fostering new research opportunities. Among these new opportunities, this work addresses the challenge of route and destination prediction. Knowing in advance the destination where a user might reach as soon as he or she starts to move can be useful in various situations. For instance, to suggest to users less jammed or safer routes, as well to warn about points of interest located along their route. There are commercial systems capable of predicting destination and routes, however, these systems usually require frequent user interaction. Nonetheless, such a requirement could make the application unusable for daily routines. Moreover, most existing works do not consider an important contextual information: the information about the places that the users visit, i.e., the role that the places play to the user (for instance, if the place is home or work). In addition, most predictors described in the literature are not able to predict places that users have never visited. This thesis proposes a family of algorithms based on Prediction by Partial Matching (PPM). Furthermore, this work proposes a mechanism for identifying whether a route is being performed for the first time, resulting in the feasibility for predicting a never visited place. This research also provides a comparison between our proposed predictors, and the predictors based on Markov Models and Hidden Markov Models (HMM), which have been used in related works. It is important to mention that both Markov and HMM predictors that we implemented are able to predict just the destination, instead the remaining route. For the statistical assessment of the predictors, the metrics Precision, Recall and F1 Score are used, together with the process of 10-fold cross- validation. The database contains about 1,500 routes extracted from 21 users, gathered for three months. The predictors based on PPM performed similarly (or better) than others reported in the literature