Epidemic modelling by ripple-spreading network and genetic algorithm

Mathematical analysis and modelling is central to infectious disease epidemiology. This paper, inspired by the natural ripple-spreading phenomenon, proposes a novel ripple-spreading network model for the study of infectious disease transmission. The new epidemic model naturally has good potential for capturing many spatial and temporal features observed in the outbreak of plagues. In particular, using a stochastic ripple-spreading process simulates the effect of random contacts and movements of individuals on the probability of infection well, which is usually a challenging issue in epidemic modeling. Some ripple-spreading related parameters such as threshold and amplifying factor of nodes are ideal to describe the importance of individuals’ physical fitness and immunity. The new model is rich in parameters to incorporate many real factors such as public health service and policies, and it is highly flexible to modifications. A genetic algorithm is used to tune the parameters of the model by referring to historic data of an epidemic. The well-tuned model can then be used for analyzing and forecasting purposes. The effectiveness of the proposed method is illustrated by simulation results

Aquaculture Asia, Vol. 10, No. 4, pp.1-42, October-December 2005

*Table of Contents* Sustainable aquaculture Peter Edwards writes on rural aquaculture: Small-scale pond culture in Bangladesh. People in aquaculture Community based aquaculture - issues and challenges H.K. De and G.S. Saha. Aquaculture as an action programme: An exercise in building confidence and self worth. B. Shanthi, V.S. Chandrasekaran, M. Kailasam, M. Muralidar, T. Ravisankar,.C. Saradad and M. Krishnan The STREAM Column: Transforming policy recommendations into pro-poor service provision Graham Haylor. Research & farming techniques. Grow out of juvenile spotted Babylon to marketable size in earthen ponds II: Polyculture with seabass. S. Kritsanapuntu, N. Chaitanawisuti, W. Santhaweesuk and Y. Natsukari Asia-Pacific Marine Finfish Aquaculture Network. Influence of economic conditions of importing nations and unforeseen global events on grouper markets. Sih Yang Sim. Present status of hatchery technology for cobia in Vietnam. Nhu Van Can. Report on grouper hatchery training course in Indonesia. Nguyen Quoc Thai. Aquatic animal health. Biosecured and improved penaeid shrimp production through organic nursery raceway system in India. Felix. S. and M. Samaya Kannan. Management of monogenean parasites in brackishwater finfish. K.P. Jithendran, M. Natarajan and I.S. Azad. Vembanad Lake: A potential spawner bank of the giant freshwater prawn Macrobrachium rosenbergii on the southwest coast of India. Paramaraj Balamurugan, Pitchaimuthu Mariappan & Chellam Balasundaram

Noninvasive mechanical ventilation in high-risk pulmonary infections: a clinical review

The aim of this article was to review the role of noninvasive ventilation (NIV) in acute pulmonary infectious diseases, such as severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS), H1N1 and tuberculosis, and to assess the risk of disease transmission with the use of NIV from patients to healthcare workers. We performed a clinical review by searching Medline and EMBASE. These databases were searched for articles on "clinical trials" and "randomised controlled trials". The keywords selected were non-invasive ventilation pulmonary infections, influenza-A (H1N1), SARS and tuberculosis. These terms were cross-referenced with the following keywords: health care workers, airborne infections, complications, intensive care unit and pandemic. The members of the International NIV Network examined the major results regarding NIV applications and SARS, H1N1 and tuberculosis. Cross-referencing mechanical ventilation with SARS yielded 76 studies, of which 10 studies involved the use of NIV and five were ultimately selected for inclusion in this review. Cross-referencing with H1N1 yielded 275 studies, of which 27 involved NIV. Of these, 22 were selected for review. Cross-referencing with tuberculosis yielded 285 studies, of which 15 involved NIV and from these seven were selected. In total 34 studies were selected for this review. NIV, when applied early in selected patients with SARS, H1N1 and acute pulmonary tuberculosis infections, can reverse respiratory failure. There are only a few reports of infectious disease transmission among healthcare workers

Prediction of Intrinsic Disorder in MERS-CoV/HCoV-EMC Supports a High Oral-Fecal Transmission

A novel coronavirus, MERS-CoV (NCoV, HCoV-EMC/2012), originating from the Middle-East, has been discovered. Incoming data reveal that the virus is highly virulent to humans. A model that categorizes coronaviuses according to the hardness of their shells was developed before the discovery of MERS-CoV. Using protein intrinsic disorder prediction, coronaviruses were categorized into three groups that can be linked to the levels of oral-fecal and respiratory transmission regardless of genetic proximity. Using this model, MERS-CoV is placed into disorder group C, which consists of coronaviruses that have relatively hard inner and outer shells. The members of this group are likely to persist in the environment for a longer period of time and possess the highest oral-fecal components but relatively low respiratory transmission components. Oral-urine and saliva transmission are also highly possible since both require harder protective shells. Results show that disorder prediction can be used as a tool that suggests clues to look for in further epidemiological investigations