Why is it so difficult to represent stably stratified conditions in numerical weather prediction (NWP) models?

In the 1990s, scientists at European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) suggested that artificially enhancing turbulent diffusion in stable conditions improves the representation of two important aspects of weather forecasts, i.e., near-surface temperatures and synoptic cyclones. Since then, this practice has often been used for tuning the large-scale performance of operational numerical weather prediction (NWP) models, although it is widely recognized to be detrimental for an accurate representation of stable boundary layers. Here we investigate why, 20 years on, such a compromise is still needed in the ECMWF model. We find that reduced turbulent diffusion in stable conditions improves the representation of winds in stable boundary layers, but it deteriorates the large-scale flow and the near-surface temperatures. This suggests that enhanced diffusion is still needed to compensate for errors caused by other poorly represented processes. Among these, we identify the orographic drag, which influences the large-scale flow in a similar way to the turbulence closure for stable conditions, and the strength of the land-atmosphere coupling, which partially controls the near-surface temperatures. We also take a closer look at the relationship between the turbulence closure in stable conditions and the large-scale flow, which was not investigated in detail with a global NWP model. We demonstrate that the turbulent diffusion in stable conditions affects the large-scale flow by modulating not only the strength of synoptic cyclones and anticyclones, but also the amplitude of the planetary-scale standing waves

Martian Surface Paleotemperatures from Thermochronology of Meteorites

The temporal evolution of past martian surface temperatures is poorly known. We used thermochronology and published noble gas and petrographic data to constrain the temperature histories of the nakhlites and martian meteorite ALH84001. We found that the nakhlites have not been heated to more than 350°C since they formed. Our calculations also suggest that for most of the past 4 billion years, ambient near-surface temperatures on Mars are unlikely to have been much higher than the present cold (<0°C) state

Foehn warming distributions in nonlinear and linear flow regimes: a focus on the Antarctic Peninsula

The structure of lee-side warming during foehn events is investigated as a function of cross-barrier flow regime linearity. Two contrasting cases of westerly flow over the Antarctic Peninsula (AP) are considered – one highly nonlinear, the other relatively linear. Westerly flow impinging on the AP provides one of the best natural laboratories in the world for the study of foehn, owing to its maritime setting and the Larsen C Ice Shelf (LCIS) providing an expansive, homogeneous and smooth surface on its east side. Numerical simulations with the Met Office Unified Model (at 1.5 km grid size) and aircraft observations are utilized. In case A, relatively weak southwesterly cross-Peninsula flow and an elevated upwind inversion dictate a highly nonlinear foehn event, with mountain wave breaking observed. The consequent strongly accelerated downslope flow leads to high-amplitude warming and ice-shelf melt in the immediate lee of the AP. However this foehn warming diminishes rapidly downwind due to upward ascent of the foehn flow via a hydraulic jump. In case C, strong northwesterly winds dictate a relatively linear flow regime. There is no hydraulic jump and strong foehn winds are able to flow at low levels across the entire ice shelf, mechanically mixing the near-surface flow, preventing the development of a strong surface inversion and delivering large fluxes of sensible heat to the ice shelf. Consequently, in case C ice-melt rates are considerably greater over the LCIS as a whole than in case A. Our results imply that although nonlinear foehn events cause intense warming in the immediate lee of mountains, linear foehn events will commonly cause more extensive lee-side warming and, over an ice surface, higher melt rates. This has major implications for the AP, where recent east-coast warming has led to the collapse of two ice shelves immediately north of the LCIS

Insolation driven variations of Mercury’s lithospheric strength

Mercury's coupled 3:2 spin-orbit resonance in conjunction with its relatively high eccentricity of ~0.2 and near-zero obliquity results in both a latitudinal and longitudinal variation in annual average solar insolation and thus equatorial hot and cold regions. This results in an asymmetric temperature distribution in the lithosphere and a long wavelength lateral variation in lithosphere structure and strength that mirrors the insolation pattern. We employ a thermal evolution model for Mercury generating strength envelopes of the lithosphere to demonstrate and quantify the possible effects the insolation pattern has on Mercury's lithosphere. We find the heterogeneity in lithosphere strength is substantial and increases with time. We also find that a crust thicker than that of the Moon or Mars and dry rheologies for the crust and mantle are favorable when compared with estimates of brittle-ductile transition depths derived from lobate scarps. Regions of stronger and weaker compressive strength imply that the accommodation of radial contraction of Mercury as its interior cooled, manifest as lobate scarps, may not be isotropic, imparting a preferential orientation and distribution to the lobate scarps