Biological reserves Rare Species and the Opportunity Cost of Diversity

The preservation of species diversity generally suggests protection of either the greatest number of species possible or all species. Requiring representation of each species in at least one parcel in the system and seeking the minimum number of parcels in the reserve system to achieve this requirement is termed the Species Set Covering Problem (SSCP). Nonetheless, it is important, as well, to consider the rarest of species, as their populations are the most in need of protection to assure their survival. This paper uses zero-one programming models and an existing data set to study species protection, rarity and the opportunity costs of diversity. We employ for this purpose an integer programming model that uses the SSCP format to require at least one representation of each and every species, but that seeks in addition protection of the rarest species. This is achieved by maximizing redundant coverage of those species designated as rare. Results are then compared to those of the SSCP. Recognizing that resources available for conservation purchases could well be insufficient to represent all species at least once, we structure a model aimed at trading-off first coverage of the greatest number of species against redundant coverage of rare species. We develop a tradeoff curve for this multi-objective problem in order to evaluate the opportunity cost of covering more species as redundant coverage of rare species decreases ­and vice versa. Finally, various possible rarity sets and various budget proxies are considered along with their impacts on conservation policies, Pareto optimality and on the opportunity cost of diversity

Opuntia in México: Identifying Priority Areas for Conserving Biodiversity in a Multi-Use Landscape

BACKGROUND: México is one of the world's centers of species diversity (richness) for Opuntia cacti. Yet, in spite of their economic and ecological importance, Opuntia species remain poorly studied and protected in México. Many of the species are sparsely but widely distributed across the landscape and are subject to a variety of human uses, so devising implementable conservation plans for them presents formidable difficulties. Multi-criteria analysis can be used to design a spatially coherent conservation area network while permitting sustainable human usage. METHODS AND FINDINGS: Species distribution models were created for 60 Opuntia species using MaxEnt. Targets of representation within conservation area networks were assigned at 100% for the geographically rarest species and 10% for the most common ones. Three different conservation plans were developed to represent the species within these networks using total area, shape, and connectivity as relevant criteria. Multi-criteria analysis and a metaheuristic adaptive tabu search algorithm were used to search for optimal solutions. The plans were built on the existing protected areas of México and prioritized additional areas for management for the persistence of Opuntia species. All plans required around one-third of México's total area to be prioritized for attention for Opuntia conservation, underscoring the implausibility of Opuntia conservation through traditional land reservation. Tabu search turned out to be both computationally tractable and easily implementable for search problems of this kind. CONCLUSIONS: Opuntia conservation in México require the management of large areas of land for multiple uses. The multi-criteria analyses identified priority areas and organized them in large contiguous blocks that can be effectively managed. A high level of connectivity was established among the prioritized areas resulting in the enhancement of possible modes of plant dispersal as well as only a small number of blocks that would be recommended for conservation management

VERY PRELIMINARY (FOR CONFERENCE ONLY) Deforestation Pressure & Biological Reserve Planning: An Illustrative Application for Costa Rica

Abstract An estimate of "deforestation pressure" over space and time is suggested as a tool for reserve planning when reserve-cost data are limited and when species survival over time is uncertain even within reserves. Deforestation pressure estimates are generated using observed forest transitions from 1963 to 1997 and measures of both biophysical and socioeconomic factors in relative land-use returns, within a regression equation explicitly derived from a dynamic microeconomic model of land use. This yields a parameterized probability-of-deforestation equation. Applying this equation for areas of currently standing forests generates the relevant deforestation pressure estimates (most naturally for plots, but here for districts, and potentially even for countries). These form the basis for evaluation of the proposed locations for Costa Rican reserves, such as the Gruas corridors.

Large Scale Marine Protected Areas for Biodiversity Conservation Along a Linear Gradient: Cooperation, Strategic Behavior or Conservation Autarky?

In this paper we investigate effects of overlap in species between ecosystems along a linear gradient on the location of marine protected areas (MPAs) under full cooperation, strategic behavior and conservation autarky. Compared to the full cooperation outcome, both strategic behavior and conservation autarky lead to under-investment in biodiversity protection. Under strategic behavior, however, we observe the additional problem of “location leakage” i.e. countries invest less in species protected by others. Conservation autarky eliminates location leakage; in ecosystems with partly overlapping species compositions at country borders it even induces MPAs that are too large from a global perspective. We also find that, in our setting of a linear gradient without migrating species, countries focus their conservation efforts on species unique to their own country and that these species are relatively well protected compared to common species

Optimal management of marine resources: spatial planning of multiple uses by multiple actors

Ocean space supplies mankind with a multitude of goods and services and yet it is under severe pressure of pollution and over-extraction of resources. To extract goods and services sustainably and to protect vulnerable ecosystems, we need to manage human activities in the marine domain. Three essential elements characterize the management of marine resources. First we are dealing with multiple uses. These uses can be conflicting, neutral or complimentary and therefore when we manage one use we should also address the effects on other uses. Second these uses are inherently spatial. Conflicts can at least partly be avoided and complementarities can be improved with careful spatial planning. Therefore we should address the spatial effects of the multiple uses when managing these activities. Third we are dealing with multiple actors. Depending on the spatial scale we look at these actors can be representatives of the several user groups that have conflicting interests, or they can be countries trying to reach agreements over the use of shared resources. In this thesis I investigate how Marine Spatial Planning and one of its tools, Marine Protected Areas (MPAs), can assist us with the management of ocean space. These instruments and their associated incentives are highly influenced by the regulatory framework, and this framework in turn depends on the spatial scale. I investigate three scale levels: the local level, defined as the Exclusive Economic Zone of a single country, the regional level, defined as a regional sea that is fully claimed by a number of countries, and the global level defined as the High Seas where all countries have access within the limits of the UN Law of the Sea. On the local level I investigate the spatial planning of offshore wind farms with an optimization model that allocates offshore wind farms under ecological constraints. The model results show that space is an essential element to derive an optimal management plan of the EEZ, because the allocation of offshore wind farms is highly dependent on both spatial economic factors such as location costs and ecological restrictions. The results show that Marine Spatial Planning is necessary, because only in this way can possible synergies between e.g. offshore wind farms and environmental protection be identified and eventually realized. The model can assist with the first steps in Marine Spatial Planning of offshore wind farms; its results can be used as a basis for conversation and consultation with stakeholders. On the regional scale I investigate how the multiple use nature of MPAs affects the incentives of countries to assign these MPAs. To this end, I develop a game theoretic model in which two specific uses, fisheries and nature conservation, by multiple countries are considered in a strategic framework. The results of the paper suggest that EU marine policy may help to secure the highest possible benefits from these MPAs, but only if policies force countries to cooperate and consider all possible benefits of MPAs. In fact cooperation on a single issue may give a worse outcome than the non-cooperative equilibrium. The results also indicate that cooperation may be hard to achieve because of defector incentives, and therefore policy measures should be strict in enforcing cooperation on all possible uses of MPAs. At the same scale level I study how species distributions and different ways of accounting for the contributions of others affects MPA assignment as a tool for biodiversity conservation. With a spatial game theoretic model I investigate three different conservation regimes: full cooperation, strategic non-cooperation, and conservation autarky. Under strategic non-cooperation countries anticipate protection by the other, under conservation autarky they ignore these contributions. The main results show that unique species occurring in a single ecosystem are relatively well protected, even when countries are free-riding. Species that occur in multiple ecosystems on both sides of the border in contrast are under non-cooperation under-protected, compared to full cooperation. This is in part caused by location leakage, i.e. protecting a number of species less because they are protected by others. On the one hand conservation autarky eliminates location leakage and generates larger MPAs at the border. On the other hand these MPA sizes are often too high from a global perspective. From this we can conclude that international conservation efforts should mainly focus on transboundary occurring species. Also, although conservation autarky is not a first-best solution, if it occurs, e.g. through social norms, it is certainly better than strategic non-cooperation. At the third level I study the effect of the assignment of internationally recognized MPAs in the High Seas on the formation of Regional Fisheries Management Organisations (RFMO) with a game theoretic model. MPAs are assigned through a weakest-link game: because everyone has to agree on an MPA before it actually can be protected, it can only be as large as the strongest opposing player wants it to be. I find that if countries have equal costs and benefits MPAs of optimal size are implemented but these have no effect on stability of RFMOs; the only stable coalition is the coalition where everyone acts alone. In the case where countries face different fishing costs, MPAs stabilize a number of extra coalitions such that more and larger coalitions are stable when an MPA is present compared to the no MPA case. Full cooperation, however, is not necessarily reached. A general conclusion is therefore that the assignment of MPAs in the High Seas can not only improve the fisheries through direct effects such as insurance and possible increases in catches, but also indirect by contributing in a positive way to the formation of RFMOs. Three important conclusions can be drawn from this thesis as a whole. First Marine Spatial Planning and Marine Protected Areas can contribute in a positive way to the management of human activities in ocean space. Second, neither of them is a silver bullet. Both need careful implementation, where all uses are accounted for, and especially the public good aspects of MPAs needs to be addressed. Third the success of MPAs (and as such of Marine Spatial Planning) is not only highly dependent on the incentives and social norms but also on the implementation scale. </p

In situ Agrobiodiversity Conservation Planning in Centers of Origin: The Role of Culture

Managing agricultural diversity ensures a range of public services, such as genetic resource diversity, food security for subsistence-based economies, and landscape resilience in the context of climate change, among others. These agrobiodiversity conservation services are positive externalities from agrobiodiversity conservation. Whereas their value is not captured in market transactions, management decisions themselves are made in situ—with any costs incurred by individual farmers. Furthermore, in situ conservation efforts in centers of origin located in developing countries face social, economic, and political challenges that risk eroding both farming communities’ cultural identity and the transfer of cultural farming knowledge to younger generations. Additionally, because in-situ conservation lacks a systematic approach to plan interventions across landscapes, the jumbled and disconnected initiatives that result do not combat agrobiodiversity loss efficiently. Connecting conservation planning decisions to household decisions with regard to local crops provides a more systematic approach to make in situ agrobiodiversity conservation planning cost-effective. This research therefore develops a household decision model that explicitly incorporates culture in decisions regarding cultivation of local crops and their varieties. This agricultural household model is embedded in an in situ conservation planner’s decision model to maximize agrobiodiversity across culturally heterogeneous communities. The purpose of this integrated model is threefold: to understand household’s reactions to alternative conservation policies (on-farm projects and incentive mechanisms), to assess the cost effectiveness of alternative conservation policies and to formally establish the prioritization problem for agrobiodiversity conservation across culturally heterogeneous landscapes. Numerical methods are employed for both the household decision model and the in situ agrobiodiversity conservation decision model. Principle findings show the importance of acknowledging how traditional a community is to plan policy interventions cost-effectively. First, the more traditional a community is the less costly it is to intervene with any conservation policy. Second, the less traditional a community is the more costly it is to intervene with inappropriate (least cost-effective) conservation policies. Moreover, as communities become less traditional, it is more costly to apply policies that inadequately account for higher opportunity costs of time and land. Also, incentive mechanisms are more cost-effective than on-farm projects for traditional and less traditional communities. Overall, the results stress the importance of culture in centers of origin such as the Andes in conserving agrobiodiversity and increasing cost effectiveness of in situ agrobiodiversity conservation planning. Finally, since the agrobiodiversity loss that comes with the cultural loss cannot be reversed, in situ conservation strategies would be more cost-effective if conservation policy allows for cultural and knowledge exchange between generations

Essays on Operational Problems in Digital Economy

In this dissertation, I investigate operational issues in the context of online social networks and digital economy. The first essay analyzes the phenomenon of open technology in the context of resource allocation. In this study, based on evidence from prior literature and current business practices, I develop optimal control models to determine the optimal extent of technology openness and firm’s effort levels for maintaining an existing technology and developing a newer version of the technology. I derive and discuss important insights and shed light on the business practices of major technology firms. In the second essay, I develop a data-driven prescriptive framework for conducting an influencer marketing campaign on online social networks. Influencer marketing involves hiring influencers to promote products on behalf of a firm. The effectiveness of an influencer marketing campaign depends on choosing the right set of influencers for seeding and scheduling of ads on social media platforms. I first develop an optimization model to select influencers and then propose a model to schedule their posts on social media. Next, I develop a polynomial time heuristic that provides a near-optimal solution for selecting influencers. Next, using actual data from a popular social network, I demonstrate the superior performance of our selection model against current industry practices. Finally, the third essay empirically analyzes the effects of social media content created by influencers on audience engagement. In particular, I focus on the tone of an influencer’s content, an important emotional facet that plays a vital role in determining whether an audience engages with the content. Our results demonstrate that the tone of social media content affects the engagement levels of an influencer with the audience. In addition, the findings from this study establish the moderating role of an influencer’s popularity and the tone of related brands on the relationship between an influencer’s tone and engagement. The results of these essays provide prescriptive solutions that are easy to implement and several important managerial insights