Multivariate decoding of brain images using ordinal regression.

Neuroimaging data are increasingly being used to predict potential outcomes or groupings, such as clinical severity, drug dose response, and transitional illness states. In these examples, the variable (target) we want to predict is ordinal in nature. Conventional classification schemes assume that the targets are nominal and hence ignore their ranked nature, whereas parametric and/or non-parametric regression models enforce a metric notion of distance between classes. Here, we propose a novel, alternative multivariate approach that overcomes these limitations - whole brain probabilistic ordinal regression using a Gaussian process framework. We applied this technique to two data sets of pharmacological neuroimaging data from healthy volunteers. The first study was designed to investigate the effect of ketamine on brain activity and its subsequent modulation with two compounds - lamotrigine and risperidone. The second study investigates the effect of scopolamine on cerebral blood flow and its modulation using donepezil. We compared ordinal regression to multi-class classification schemes and metric regression. Considering the modulation of ketamine with lamotrigine, we found that ordinal regression significantly outperformed multi-class classification and metric regression in terms of accuracy and mean absolute error. However, for risperidone ordinal regression significantly outperformed metric regression but performed similarly to multi-class classification both in terms of accuracy and mean absolute error. For the scopolamine data set, ordinal regression was found to outperform both multi-class and metric regression techniques considering the regional cerebral blood flow in the anterior cingulate cortex. Ordinal regression was thus the only method that performed well in all cases. Our results indicate the potential of an ordinal regression approach for neuroimaging data while providing a fully probabilistic framework with elegant approaches for model selection

Prediction of Clinical Scores from Neuroimaging Data with Censored Likelihood Gaussian Processes

In this paper, we explore the use of Censored Likelihoods in Gaussian Process Regression when predicting bounded clinical scores from neuroimaging data. The standard approach, which uses a Gaussian Likelihood, does not respect the fact that the clinical scores are bounded, and so may produce suboptimal models. Conversely, Censored Likelihoods explicitly model the restricted range of such clinical scores and carry this property through inference. We apply both the standard approach and the Censored Likelihood approach to the prediction of the MMSE score from structural MRI. Overall, we find small improvements in mean squared error when using the Censored Likelihood and in addition, the censored models are more favoured from a Bayesian perspective. We also discuss the qualitative nature of the predictions of the two approaches

On the Consistency of Ordinal Regression Methods

Many of the ordinal regression models that have been proposed in the literature can be seen as methods that minimize a convex surrogate of the zero-one, absolute, or squared loss functions. A key property that allows to study the statistical implications of such approximations is that of Fisher consistency. Fisher consistency is a desirable property for surrogate loss functions and implies that in the population setting, i.e., if the probability distribution that generates the data were available, then optimization of the surrogate would yield the best possible model. In this paper we will characterize the Fisher consistency of a rich family of surrogate loss functions used in the context of ordinal regression, including support vector ordinal regression, ORBoosting and least absolute deviation. We will see that, for a family of surrogate loss functions that subsumes support vector ordinal regression and ORBoosting, consistency can be fully characterized by the derivative of a real-valued function at zero, as happens for convex margin-based surrogates in binary classification. We also derive excess risk bounds for a surrogate of the absolute error that generalize existing risk bounds for binary classification. Finally, our analysis suggests a novel surrogate of the squared error loss. We compare this novel surrogate with competing approaches on 9 different datasets. Our method shows to be highly competitive in practice, outperforming the least squares loss on 7 out of 9 datasets.Comment: Journal of Machine Learning Research 18 (2017

Ketamine induces a robust whole-brain connectivity pattern that can be differentially modulated by drugs of different mechanism and clinical profile

Ketamine, an N-methyl-D-aspartate receptor (NMDAR) antagonist, has been studied in relation to the glutamate hypothesis of schizophrenia and increases dissociation, positive and negative symptom ratings. Ketamine effects brain function through changes in brain activity; these activity patterns can be modulated by pre-treatment of compounds known to attenuate the effects of ketamine on glutamate release. Ketamine also has marked effects on brain connectivity; we predicted that these changes would also be modulated by compounds known to attenuate glutamate release. Here, we perform task-free pharmacological magnetic resonance imaging (phMRI) to investigate the functional connectivity effects of ketamine in the brain and the potential modulation of these effects by pre-treatment of the compounds lamotrigine and risperidone, compounds hypothesised to differentially modulate glutamate release. Connectivity patterns were assessed by combining windowing, graph theory and multivariate Gaussian process classification. We demonstrate that ketamine has a robust effect on the functional connectivity of the human brain compared to saline (87.5 % accuracy). Ketamine produced a shift from a cortically centred, to a subcortically centred pattern of connections. This effect is strongly modulated by pre-treatment with risperidone (81.25 %) but not lamotrigine (43.75 %). Based on the differential effect of these compounds on ketamine response, we suggest the observed connectivity effects are primarily due to NMDAR blockade rather than downstream glutamatergic effects. The connectivity changes contrast with amplitude of response for which no differential effect between pre-treatments was detected, highlighting the necessity of these techniques in forming an informed view of the mechanistic effects of pharmacological compounds in the human brain

Predictive Modelling using Neuroimaging Data in the Presence of Confounds

When training predictive models from neuroimaging data, we typically have available non-imaging variables such as age and gender that affect the imaging data but which we may be uninterested in from a clinical perspective. Such variables are commonly referred to as 'confounds'. In this work, we firstly give a working definition for confound in the context of training predictive models from samples of neuroimaging data. We define a confound as a variable which affects the imaging data and has an association with the target variable in the sample that differs from that in the population-of-interest, i.e., the population over which we intend to apply the estimated predictive model. The focus of this paper is the scenario in which the confound and target variable are independent in the population-of-interest, but the training sample is biased due to a sample association between the target and confound. We then discuss standard approaches for dealing with confounds in predictive modelling such as image adjustment and including the confound as a predictor, before deriving and motivating an Instance Weighting scheme that attempts to account for confounds by focusing model training so that it is optimal for the population-of-interest. We evaluate the standard approaches and Instance Weighting in two regression problems with neuroimaging data in which we train models in the presence of confounding, and predict samples that are representative of the population-of-interest. For comparison, these models are also evaluated when there is no confounding present. In the first experiment we predict the MMSE score using structural MRI from the ADNI database with gender as the confound, while in the second we predict age using structural MRI from the IXI database with acquisition site as the confound. Considered over both datasets we find that none of the methods for dealing with confounding gives more accurate predictions than a baseline model which ignores confounding, although including the confound as a predictor gives models that are less accurate than the baseline model. We do find, however, that different methods appear to focus their predictions on specific subsets of the population-of-interest, and that predictive accuracy is greater when there is no confounding present. We conclude with a discussion comparing the advantages and disadvantages of each approach, and the implications of our evaluation for building predictive models that can be used in clinical practice

Individualized Gaussian process-based prediction and detection of local and global gray matter abnormalities in elderly subjects.

Structural imaging based on MRI is an integral component of the clinical assessment of patients with potential dementia. We here propose an individualized Gaussian process-based inference scheme for clinical decision support in healthy and pathological aging elderly subjects using MRI. The approach aims at quantitative and transparent support for clinicians who aim to detect structural abnormalities in patients at risk of Alzheimer's disease or other types of dementia. Firstly, we introduce a generative model incorporating our knowledge about normative decline of local and global gray matter volume across the brain in elderly. By supposing smooth structural trajectories the models account for the general course of age-related structural decline as well as late-life accelerated loss. Considering healthy subjects' demography and global brain parameters as informative about normal brain aging variability affords individualized predictions in single cases. Using Gaussian process models as a normative reference, we predict new subjects' brain scans and quantify the local gray matter abnormalities in terms of Normative Probability Maps (NPM) and global z-scores. By integrating the observed expectation error and the predictive uncertainty, the local maps and global scores exploit the advantages of Bayesian inference for clinical decisions and provide a valuable extension of diagnostic information about pathological aging. We validate the approach in simulated data and real MRI data. We train the GP framework using 1238 healthy subjects with ages 18-94years, and predict in 415 independent test subjects diagnosed as healthy controls, Mild Cognitive Impairment and Alzheimer's disease

Individualised Clinical Neuroimaging in the Developing Brain: Abnormality Detection

Perinatal neuroanatomical structure is incredibly intricate and, at time of birth, is undergoing continuous change due to interweaving developmental processes (growth, myelination and gyrification). While there is some small variability in structure and rates of development, all follow proscribed pathways with well documented milestones. Brain injury or other disruption of these processes can result in poor neurodevelopmental outcomes or mortality, making their early identification critical to estimate, and potentially forestall, negative effects. MRI is an increasingly used method of investigating suspected neonatal encephalopathies and injuries.Identification of these injuries and malformations is more challenging in neonates compared to adults due to the brain’s continuously evolving appearance. This makes radiological review of neonatal MRI an intensive and time-consuming task which, in an ideal setting, requires a team of highly skilled clinicians and radiologists with complementary training and extensive experience. To assist this review process, some localisation method that highlights areas likely to contain tissue abnormalities would be highly desirable, as it could quickly draw attention to these locations. In addition, identifying neonates whose MRI is likely to contain some form of pathology could allow for review prioritisation.In this thesis, I first investigated using normative models of neonatal tissue intensity for brain tissue abnormality detection. I applied voxel-wise Gaussian process (GP) regression to a training cohort of neonates with no obvious lesions, all born preterm (<37 weeks) but imaged between 28-55 weeks. Gestational age at birth (GA), postmenstrual age at scan (PMA) and sex were used as input variables and voxel intensity as the output variable. GPs output a mean value and its variance inferred from neonates within the training cohort whose demographic information most closely matched those of the prediction target. The voxel specific models were put together to form a synthesised typical image and standard deviation image derived from the variance outputs. Z-score abnormality maps were constructed by taking the difference between neonates actual MRI and GP-calculated synthetic image and scaling by their standard deviation map. Higher Z-score map values indicate voxels more likely to contain abnormal tissue intensity. Using manually delineated masks of common brain injuries seen in a subset of neonates, these abnormality Z-score maps demonstrated good detection performance using area under the curve of receiver operating characteristic scores, with the exception of small punctate lesions.The initial voxel-wise models had substantial false positives around the edges of the brain where there is large typical heterogeneity. I next investigated if incorporating local structural information into predictive models could improve their ability to accommodate typical anatomical heterogeneity seen across individual brains and improve the accuracy of synthetic images and abnormality detection. To achieve this, voxel intensity values in a patch surrounding the prediction target were appended to the design matrix, alongside GMA, PMA and sex. The patch-based synthetic images were able to match an individual’s brain structure more closely and had lower false positives in normal appearing tissue. However, a weakness was that the centre of some larger lesions was included in the predictions (thereby classified as ‘healthy’ tissue), having a deleterious effect on their coverage, increasing false negatives. This was offset by much better coverage of smaller, more subtle lesions, to the extent that overall performance was higher compared to that seen in the earlier model.I also investigated if the Z-score abnormality maps could be used to classify neonates with MRI positive brain injury from those with normal appearing brains. While many machine learning algorism see frequent use in neuroimaging classification tasks, I opted for a logistic regression model due to its high levels of interpretability and simple implementation. Using the histograms of the Z-score abnormality maps as inputs, the model demonstrated good performance, being able to correctly identify neonates with injuries, but not those with subtle lesions like punctate lesions, whilst minimising false identification of neonates with normal appearing brains.To ascertain if performance could be improved, I explored multiple classification methods. Specifically, the use of other more complex classifiers (random forest, support vector machines, GP classification) and the use of a regional abnormal voxel count, that allowed localisation of lesioned tissue rather than the more global detection ability of the Z-score histograms. Using these innovations, I investigated their application towards a specific pathology; hypoxic ischemic encephalopathy (HIE). This is a good test for the system, as HIE has high incidence rates, multiple associated lesion types and a time dependant appearance. Further, I wanted to know if, given a positive HIE diagnosis, the Z-score abnormality maps could be used to predict long-term outcomes (normal vs poor). Several models demonstrated an excellent ability to separate HIE and healthy control neonates achieving >90% accuracy, a statistically significant result even after false discovery rate (FDR) correction (p-value < 0.05). While the outcome prediction models achieved reasonable accuracy, >70% in multiple models, none of these were statistically significant after FDR correction.Overall, this work demonstrates how normative modelling can be used to create individual voxel-wise / image-wise estimation of tissue abnormality for neonatal MRI across a range of gestational ages. It further demonstrates that these abnormality maps can be utilised for additional tasks, in this instance, three increasingly challenging neurological classification problems. These include the separation of neonates with and without MRI positive lesions, identification of neonates with a specific pathological condition (HIE) and prediction of long-term functional outcome (normal vs poor). Within a radiological setting, these classifications task can be considered analogous to three radiological challenges, image triage, diagnostic detection and estimation of developmental prognosis, important for the clinical team but also infants and their families

Probabilistic prediction of Alzheimer’s disease from multimodal image data with Gaussian processes

Alzheimer’s disease, the most common form of dementia, is an extremely serious health problem, and one that will become even more so in the coming decades as the global population ages. This has led to a massive effort to develop both new treatments for the condition and new methods of diagnosis; in fact the two are intimately linked as future treatments will depend on earlier diagnosis, which in turn requires the development of biomarkers that can be used to identify and track the disease. This is made possible by studies such as the Alzheimer’s disease neuroimaging initiative which provides previously unimaginable quantities of imaging and other data freely to researchers. It is the task of early diagnosis that this thesis focuses on. We do so by borrowing modern machine learning techniques, and applying them to image data. In particular, we use Gaussian processes (GPs), a previously neglected tool, and show they can be used in place of the more widely used support vector machine (SVM). As combinations of complementary biomarkers have been shown to be more useful than the biomarkers are individually, we go on to show GPs can also be applied to integrate different types of image and non-image data, and thanks to their properties this improves results further than it does with SVMs. In the final two chapters, we also look at different ways to formulate both the prediction of conversion to Alzheimer’s disease as a machine learning problem and the way image data can be used to generate features for input as a machine learning algorithm. Both of these show how unconventional approaches may improve results. The result is an advance in the state-of-the-art for a very clinically important problem, which may prove useful in practice and show a direction of future research to further increase the usefulness of such method