UQ and AI: data fusion, inverse identification, and multiscale uncertainty propagation in aerospace components

A key requirement for engineering designs is that they offer good performance across a range of uncertain conditions while exhibiting an admissibly low probability of failure. In order to design components that offer good performance across a range of uncertain conditions, it is necessary to take account of the effect of the uncertainties associated with a candidate design. Uncertainty Quantification (UQ) methods are statistical methods that may be used to quantify the effect of the uncertainties inherent in a system on its performance. This thesis expands the envelope of UQ methods for the design of aerospace components, supporting the integration of UQ methods in product development by addressing four industrial challenges. Firstly, a method for propagating uncertainty through computational models in a hierachy of scales is described that is based on probabilistic equivalence and Non-Intrusive Polynomial Chaos (NIPC). This problem is relevant to the design of aerospace components as the computational models used to evaluate candidate designs are typically multiscale. This method was then extended to develop a formulation for inverse identification, where the probability distributions for the material properties of a coupon are deduced from measurements of its response. We demonstrate how probabilistic equivalence and the Maximum Entropy Principle (MEP) may be used to leverage data from simulations with scarce experimental data- with the intention of making this stage of product design less expensive and time consuming. The third contribution of this thesis is to develop two novel meta-modelling strategies to promote the wider exploration of the design space during the conceptual design phase. Design Space Exploration (DSE) in this phase is crucial as decisions made at the early, conceptual stages of an aircraft design can restrict the range of alternative designs available at later stages in the design process, despite limited quantitative knowledge of the interaction between requirements being available at this stage. A histogram interpolation algorithm is presented that allows the designer to interactively explore the design space with a model-free formulation, while a meta-model based on Knowledge Based Neural Networks (KBaNNs) is proposed in which the outputs of a high-level, inexpensive computer code are informed by the outputs of a neural network, in this way addressing the criticism of neural networks that they are purely data-driven and operate as black boxes. The final challenge addressed by this thesis is how to iteratively improve a meta-model by expanding the dataset used to train it. Given the reliance of UQ methods on meta-models this is an important challenge. This thesis proposes an adaptive learning algorithm for Support Vector Machine (SVM) metamodels, which are used to approximate an unknown function. In particular, we apply the adaptive learning algorithm to test cases in reliability analysis.Open Acces

Contributions to probabilistic non-negative matrix factorization - Maximum marginal likelihood estimation and Markovian temporal models

Non-negative matrix factorization (NMF) has become a popular dimensionality reductiontechnique, and has found applications in many different fields, such as audio signal processing,hyperspectral imaging, or recommender systems. In its simplest form, NMF aims at finding anapproximation of a non-negative data matrix (i.e., with non-negative entries) as the product of twonon-negative matrices, called the factors. One of these two matrices can be interpreted as adictionary of characteristic patterns of the data, and the other one as activation coefficients ofthese patterns. This low-rank approximation is traditionally retrieved by optimizing a measure of fitbetween the data matrix and its approximation. As it turns out, for many choices of measures of fit,the problem can be shown to be equivalent to the joint maximum likelihood estimation of thefactors under a certain statistical model describing the data. This leads us to an alternativeparadigm for NMF, where the learning task revolves around probabilistic models whoseobservation density is parametrized by the product of non-negative factors. This general framework, coined probabilistic NMF, encompasses many well-known latent variable models ofthe literature, such as models for count data. In this thesis, we consider specific probabilistic NMFmodels in which a prior distribution is assumed on the activation coefficients, but the dictionary remains a deterministic variable. The objective is then to maximize the marginal likelihood in thesesemi-Bayesian NMF models, i.e., the integrated joint likelihood over the activation coefficients.This amounts to learning the dictionary only; the activation coefficients may be inferred in asecond step if necessary. We proceed to study in greater depth the properties of this estimation process. In particular, two scenarios are considered. In the first one, we assume the independence of the activation coefficients sample-wise. Previous experimental work showed that dictionarieslearned with this approach exhibited a tendency to automatically regularize the number of components, a favorable property which was left unexplained. In the second one, we lift thisstandard assumption, and consider instead Markov structures to add statistical correlation to themodel, in order to better analyze temporal data

Minimum mean square distance estimation of a subspace

We consider the problem of subspace estimation in a Bayesian setting. Since we are operating in the Grassmann manifold, the usual approach which consists of minimizing the mean square error (MSE) between the true subspace $U$ and its estimate $\hat{U}$ may not be adequate as the MSE is not the natural metric in the Grassmann manifold. As an alternative, we propose to carry out subspace estimation by minimizing the mean square distance (MSD) between $U$ and its estimate, where the considered distance is a natural metric in the Grassmann manifold, viz. the distance between the projection matrices. We show that the resulting estimator is no longer the posterior mean of $U$ but entails computing the principal eigenvectors of the posterior mean of $U U^{T}$. Derivation of the MMSD estimator is carried out in a few illustrative examples including a linear Gaussian model for the data and a Bingham or von Mises Fisher prior distribution for $U$. In all scenarios, posterior distributions are derived and the MMSD estimator is obtained either analytically or implemented via a Markov chain Monte Carlo simulation method. The method is shown to provide accurate estimates even when the number of samples is lower than the dimension of $U$. An application to hyperspectral imagery is finally investigated

Simulation Of Random Set Covering Problems With Known Optimal Solutions And Explicitly Induced Correlations Amoong Coefficients

The objective of this research is to devise a procedure to generate random Set Covering Problem (SCP) instances with known optimal solutions and correlated coefficients. The procedure presented in this work can generate a virtually unlimited number of SCP instances with known optimal solutions and realistic characteristics, thereby facilitating testing of the performance of SCP heuristics and algorithms. A four-phase procedure based on the Karush-Kuhn-Tucker (KKT) conditions is proposed to generate SCP instances with known optimal solutions and correlated coefficients. Given randomly generated values for the objective function coefficients and the sum of the binary constraint coefficients for each variable and a randomly selected optimal solution, the procedure: (1) calculates the range for the number of possible constraints, (2) generates constraint coefficients for the variables with value one in the optimal solution, (3) assigns values to the dual variables, and (4) generates constraint coefficients for variables with value 0 in the optimal solution so that the KKT conditions are satisfied. A computational demonstration of the procedure is provided. A total of 525 SCP instances are simulated under seven correlation levels and three levels for the number of constraints. Each of these instances is solved using three simple heuristic procedures. The performance of the heuristics on the SCP instances generated is summarized and analyzed. The performance of the heuristics generally worsens as the expected correlation between the coefficients increases and as the number of constraints increases. The results provide strong evidence of the benefits of the procedure for generating SCP instances with correlated coefficients, and in particular SCP instances with known optimal solutions