The Need for Transparency in Commodity and Commodity Derivatives Markets. ECMI Research Report No. 3, 15 December 2008

This paper argues that transparency-boosting measures specifically tailored to commodity and commodity derivatives markets are much needed. In particular, encouraging the creation of a clearing infrastructure for OTC commodity and commodity derivatives markets would be desirable. Moreover, EU regulators should consider setting up a new, more effective market abuse regime aimed at preventing manipulation in both the physical and financial commodities markets. Finally, in cooperation with the G20, EU authorities should consider the creation of an International Commodity Agency to increase transparency and restore confidence in international physical markets for commodities. The paper is structured as follows: Section 2 briefly discusses the fundamentals of commodity spot and futures markets. Section 3 presents both physical commodity markets and commodity derivative markets in their usual breakdown categories: agriculture, metals and energy. Section 4 discusses the regulations in the EU and the US concerning commodity derivatives. Section 5 advances certain policy proposals and the last section draws the conclusions

On the spot-futures no-arbitrage relations in commodity markets

In commodity markets the convergence of futures towards spot prices, at the expiration of the contract, is usually justified by no-arbitrage arguments. In this article, we propose an alternative approach that relies on the expected profit maximization problem of an agent, producing and storing a commodity while trading in the associated futures contracts. In this framework, the relation between the spot and the futures prices holds through the well-posedness of the maximization problem. We show that the futures price can still be seen as the risk-neutral expectation of the spot price at maturity and we propose an explicit formula for the forward volatility. Moreover, we provide an heuristic analysis of the optimal solution for the production/storage/trading problem, in a Markovian setting. This approach is particularly interesting in the case of energy commodities, like electricity: this framework indeed remains suitable for commodities characterized by storability constraints, when standard no-arbitrage arguments cannot be safely applied

Competitive Screening in Insurance Markets with Endogenous Wealth Heterogeneity

We examine equilibria in competitive insurance markets with adverse selection when wealth differences arise endogenously from unobservable savings or labor supply decisions. The endogeneity of wealth implies that high risk individuals may ceteris paribus exhibit the lower marginal willingness to pay for insurance than low risks, a phenomenon that we refer to as irregular-crossing preferences. In our model, both risk and patience (or productivity) are privately observable. In contrast to the models in the existing literature, where wealth heterogeneity is exogenously assumed, equilibria in our model no longer exhibit a monotone relation between risk and coverage. Individuals who purchase larger coverage are no longer higher risks, a phenomenon frequently observed in empirical studies.Insurance Markets, Adverse Selection, Multidimensional Screening

Equilibrium in Scoring Auctions

This paper studies multi-attribute auctions in which a buyer seeks to procure a complex good and evaluate offers using a quasi-linear scoring rule. Suppliers have private information about their costs, which is summarized by a multi-dimensional type. The scoring rule reduces the multidimensional bids submitted by each supplier to a single dimension, the score, which is used for deciding on the allocation and the resulting contractual obligation. We exploit this idea and obtain two kinds of results. First, we characterize the set of equilibria in quasi-linear scoring auctions with multi-dimensional types. In particular, we show that there exists a mapping between the class of equilibria in these scoring auctions and those in standard single object IPV auctions. Second, we prove a new expected utility equivalence theorem for quasi-linear scoring auctions.Auctions, Procurement

Strategic interaction between futures and spot markets.

There is a literature (e.g., Allaz and Vila, 1992 and Hughes and Kao, 1997) showing that in an oligopolistic context, the presence of a futures market induces firms to use it in order to increase its market share. The consequence of this behavior is that the total quantity supplied by the industry increases, thus making the oligopolistic outcome closer to the competitive equilibrium. In the present work, we propose a model to study the interaction of spot and futures markets that does not imply this pro-competitive effect. The model is the same as in Allaz and Vila in the sense that firms have infinitely many moments to trade in the futures market before the spot market takes place. We analyze the equilibria in the infinite case directly and show that many equilibria emerge in a kind of folk-theorem result (but ours is not a repeated game). The equilibrium in which firms do not use the forward market is particularly robust as it satisfies the most demanding definition of renegotiation-proofuess. Furthermore, if firms are allowed to buy in the futures market, they can sustain the monopolistic outcome in a renegotiation-proof equilibrium (notice that there is only one period in the spot market). We also study the role of information in the model and argue that our results fit better stylized facts of some industries like the power market in the U.K.Futures markets; Cournot competition; Collusion;

Understanding the fine structure of electricity prices

This paper analyzes the special features of electricity spot prices derived from the physics of this commodity and from the economics of supply and demand in a market pool. Besides mean reversion, a property they share with other commodities, power prices exhibit the unique feature of spikes in trajectories. We introduce a class of discontinuous processes exhibiting a "jump-reversion" component to properly represent these sharp upward moves shortly followed by drops of similar magnitude. Our approach allows to capture—for the first time to our knowledge—both the trajectorial and the statistical properties of electricity pool prices. The quality of the fitting is illustrated on a database of major U.S. power markets

An Open Source Based Data Warehouse Architecture to Support Decision Making in the Tourism Sector

In this paper an alternative Tourism oriented Data Warehousing architecture is proposed which makes use of the most recent free and open source technologies like Java, Postgresql and XML. Such architecture's aim will be to support the decision making process and giving an integrated view of the whole Tourism reality in an established context (local, regional, national, etc.) without requesting big investments for getting the necessary software.Tourism, Data warehousing architecture