Multi-step ahead response time prediction for single server queuing systems

Multi-step ahead response time prediction of CPU constrained computing systems is vital for admission control, overload protection and optimization of resource allocation in these systems. CPU constrained computing systems such as web servers can be modeled as single server queuing systems. These systems are stochastic and nonlinear. Thus, a well-designed nonlinear prediction scheme would be able to represent the dynamics of such a system much better than a linear scheme. A nonlinear autoregressive neural network with exogenous inputs based multi-step ahead response time predictor has been developed. The proposed estimator has many promising characteristics that make it a viable candidate for being implemented in admission control products for computing systems. It has a simple structure, is nonlinear, supports multi-step ahead prediction, and works very well under time variant and non-stationary scenarios such as single server queuing systems under time varying mean arrival rate. Performance of the proposed predictor is evaluated through simulation. Simulations show that the proposed predictor is able to predict the response times of single server queuing systems in multi-step ahead with very good precision represented by very small mean absolute and mean squared prediction errors

Resource Management in Computing Systems

Resource management is an essential building block of any modern computer and communication network. In this thesis, the results of our research in the following two tracks are summarized in four papers. The first track includes three papers and covers modeling, prediction and control for multi-tier computing systems. In the first paper, a NARX-based multi-step-ahead response time predictor for single server queuing systems is presented which can be applied to CPU-constrained computing systems. The second paper introduces a NARX-based multi-step-ahead query response time predictor for database servers. Both mentioned predictors can predict the dynamics of response times in the whole operation range particularly in high load scenarios without changes having to be applied to the current protocols and operating systems. In the third paper, queuing theory is used to model the dynamics of a database server. Several heuristics are presented to tune the parameters of the proposed model to the measured data from the database. Furthermore, an admission controller is presented, and its parameters are tuned to control the response time of queries which are sent to the database to stay below a predefined reference value.The second track includes one paper, covering a problem formulation and optimal solution for a content replication problem in Telecom operator's content delivery networks (Telco-CDNs). The problem is formulated in the form of an integer programming problem trying to minimize the communication delay and cost according to several constraints such as limited content replication budget, limited storage size and limited downlink bandwidth of each regional content server. The solution of this problem is a performance bound for any distributed content replication algorithm which addresses the same problem

NARX-based multi-step ahead response time prediction for database servers

Advanced telecommunication applications are often based on a multi-tier architecture, with application servers and database servers. With a rapidly increasing development of cloud computing and data centers, characterizations of the dynamics for database servers during changing workloads will be a key factor for analysis and performance improvements in these applications. We propose a multi-step ahead response time predictor for database queries based on a nonlinear autoregressive neural network model with exogenous inputs. The estimator shows many promising characteristics which make it a viable candidate for being implemented in admission control products for database servers. Performance of the proposed predictor is evaluated through experiments on a lab setup with a MySQL-server

Model-Based Dynamic Resource Management for Service Oriented Clouds

Cloud computing is a flexible platform for software as a service, as more and more applications are deployed on cloud. Major challenges in cloud include how to characterize the workload of the applications and how to manage the cloud resources efficiently by sharing them among many applications. The current state of the art considers a simplified model of the system, either ignoring the software components altogether or ignoring the relationship between individual software services. This thesis considers the following resource management problems for cloud-based service providers: (i) how to estimate the parameters of the current workload, (ii) how to meet Quality of Service (QoS) targets while minimizing infrastructure cost, (iii) how to allocate resources considering performance costs of virtual machine reconfigurations. To address the above problems, we propose a model-based feedback loop approach. The cloud infrastructure, the services, and the applications are modelled using Layered Queuing Models (LQM). These models are then optimized. Mathematical techniques are used to reduce the complexity of the models and address the scalability issues. The main contributions of this thesis are: (i) Extended Kalman Filter (EKF) based techniques improved by dynamic clustering for scalable estimation of workload parameters, (ii) combination of adaptive empirical models (tuned during runtime) and stepwise optimizations for improving the overall allocation performance, (iii) dynamic service placement algorithms that consider the cost of virtual machine reconfiguration

Mobile application for efficient taxi allocation at airports

Thesis: S.M. in Transportation, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, 2013.Cataloged from PDF version of thesis.Includes bibliographical references (pages 52-54).The important role that taxis play in bringing passengers from an airport terminal to their final destination is often overlooked in airport operations and design. Due to varying flight arrival patterns at different terminals, taxi drivers are often unsure which terminal they should queue at. In this thesis, we present ChangiNOW, a mobile app that uses a predictive queueing model to efficiently allocate taxis. The ChangiNOW system uses observed taxi and flight data at each of the four terminals of Singapores Changi Airport to estimate the expected waiting time and queue length for taxis arriving at these terminals, and then sends taxis to terminals where waiting time is shortest. The app communicates this information to taxi drivers in a visually intuitive and appealing way, motivating them to service those terminals with the highest taxi demand. We present the theoretical details that underpin our prediction engine and validate our theory with several targeted numerical simulations. Finally, we evaluate the performance of this system in large-scale experiments and show that our system achieves a significant improvement in both passenger and taxi waiting time.by Afian Anwar.S.M. in Transportatio

Dynamics analysis and integrated design of real-time control systems

Real-time control systems are widely deployed in many applications. Theory and practice for the design and deployment of real-time control systems have evolved significantly. From the design perspective, control strategy development has been the focus of the research in the control community. In order to develop good control strategies, process modelling and analysis have been investigated for decades, and stability analysis and model-based control have been heavily studied in the literature. From the implementation perspective, real-time control systems require timeliness and predictable timing behaviour in addition to logical correctness, and a real-time control system may behave very differently with different software implementations of the control strategies on a digital controller, which typically has limited computing resources. Most current research activities on software implementations concentrate on various scheduling methodologies to ensure the schedulability of multiple control tasks in constrained environments. Recently, more and more real-time control systems are implemented over data networks, leading to increasing interest worldwide in the design and implementation of networked control systems (NCS). Major research activities in NCS include control-oriented and scheduling-oriented investigations. In spite of significant progress in the research and development of real-time control systems, major difficulties exist in the state of the art. A key issue is the lack of integrated design for control development and its software implementation. For control design, the model-based control technique, the current focus of control research, does not work when a good process model is not available or is too complicated for control design. For control implementation on digital controllers running multiple tasks, the system schedulability is essential but is not enough; the ultimate objective of satisfactory quality-of-control (QoC) performance has not been addressed directly. For networked control, the majority of the control-oriented investigations are based on two unrealistic assumptions about the network induced delay. The scheduling-oriented research focuses on schedulability and does not directly link to the overall QoC of the system. General solutions with direct QoC consideration from the network perspective to the challenging problems of network delay and packet dropout in NCS have not been found in the literature. This thesis addresses the design and implementation of real-time control systems with regard to dynamics analysis and integrated design. Three related areas have been investigated, namely control development for controllers, control implementation and scheduling on controllers, and real-time control in networked environments. Seven research problems are identified from these areas for investigation in this thesis, and accordingly seven major contributions have been claimed. Timing behaviour, quality of control, and integrated design for real-time control systems are highlighted throughout this thesis. In control design, a model-free control technique, pattern predictive control, is developed for complex reactive distillation processes. Alleviating the requirement of accurate process models, the developed control technique integrates pattern recognition, fuzzy logic, non-linear transformation, and predictive control into a unified framework to solve complex problems. Characterising the QoC indirectly with control latency and jitter, scheduling strategies for multiple control tasks are proposed to minimise the latency and/or jitter. Also, a hierarchical, QoC driven, and event-triggering feedback scheduling architecture is developed with plug-ins of either the earliest-deadline-first or fixed priority scheduling. Linking to the QoC directly, the architecture minimises the use of computing resources without sacrifice of the system QoC. It considers the control requirements, but does not rely on the control design. For real-time NCS, the dynamics of the network delay are analysed first, and the nonuniform distribution and multi-fractal nature of the delay are revealed. These results do not support two fundamental assumptions used in existing NCS literature. Then, considering the control requirements, solutions are provided to the challenging NCS problems from the network perspective. To compensate for the network delay, a real-time queuing protocol is developed to smooth out the time-varying delay and thus to achieve more predictable behaviour of packet transmissions. For control packet dropout, simple yet effective compensators are proposed. Finally, combining the queuing protocol, the packet loss compensation, the configuration of the worst-case communication delay, and the control design, an integrated design framework is developed for real-time NCS. With this framework, the network delay is limited to within a single control period, leading to simplified system analysis and improved QoC